OCI Knowledge & Learning, Part V
Change and Cognitive Dissonance
We continue our discussion of the forces of change in the Knowledge & Learning module. We discuss inertia and equilibrium and how they’re managed in the Preliminary Specification. To achieve higher levels of economic performance we know that it requires a reorganization of the resources of both the service and oil & gas industries. Our problem came about because our society is very advanced and increasing our performance requires the necessary software in place first. Without software in place no change or improvement in performance will occur. Officers and directors in the oil & gas industry know this and use it to ensure their current positions are never challenged. They’ve done this by never changing their ERP software. Or they have implemented SAP to reinforce their methods. This has made it particularly difficult for the industry to advance.
Should there be the changes that are suggested in the Preliminary Specification? Should we continue with the SAP perception of oil & gas producers? In an era of insatiable energy demand, what is oil & gas producers' vision? These are questions best left to others to answer. All I can do is continue to offer solutions based on the Joint Operating Committee. I would suggest that today’s topics of inertia and equilibrium can best be described in the industry as stagnant and disjointed. The quotations are from Professor Richard Langlois' paper “Institutions, Inertia and Changing Industrial Leadership."
Several features of punctuated equilibrium stand out. Firstly, it is a lengthy process. Even the revolutionary or transitionary phase, in which two or more alternatives vie for success, may be prolonged for decades, or eons in the case of speciation. Secondly, the process, like Schumpeter's: creative destruction," is one of replacement. When there is punctuated equilibrium, the extinction of a species or discrediting of a scientific theory are not enough; there must be a new species available to take over the territory or a new theory to account for the phenomena that the old theory was once thought to explain. Thirdly, each period of punctuated change requires a behavioral shift to ensure alignment between the requirements of the new order and the actions of its agents. This shift might be accomplished internally, if the old agents adapt their behavior to meet the new conditions, or externally if they are supplanted by a new group of agents. Finally, inertia plays a central role in punctuated equilibrium by ensuring that change proceeds by fits and starts rather than smoothly and evenly. pp. 2 - 3.
The Preliminary Specification provides for the second item in this quote of “there must be a new species available to take over the territory or a new theory to account." And it also provides a vision for the third item in Langlois' quote of “a behavioral shift to ensure alignment between the requirements of the new order and the actions of its agents.” As we noted, the service providers and service industry representatives would be motivated to form new and innovative service offerings to their producer clients and the Joint Operating Committees. So with these we would be well on our way to the transition to the environment described in the Preliminary Specification. This is despite officers and directors' actions.
I am also operating from two fundamental assumptions that lead me to conclude that these changes will occur. That the stuffing of another ream of paper in the printer is how the system is fed in today’s oil & gas industry. That is, the ERP systems that operate today are woefully inadequate for the needs in the era of insatiable energy demand in which we’re about to find ourselves in. These systems have no future. And that high levels of cognitive dissonance occur when people read the Preliminary Specification. That is to say it resonates with their understanding of what an oil & gas system should be, and they desire it.
Inertia is the focus of this paper. As is explained in more detail below, inertia has two major functions in the cycle of punctuated equilibrium. Inertia results from, and in a sense embodies, the best feature of the stable phase of the cycle because it is based on the learning process in which producers determine which procedures are most efficient and effective. Once people are satisfied that they know how to do things well, they have very little incentive to look for or adopt new methods. In the words of Tushman and Romanelli (1985, pp. 197, 205), "those same social and structural factors which are associated with effective performance are also the foundations of organizational inertia..., success sows the seeds of extraordinary resistance to fundamental change." Inertia also provides the tension, however, that leads to the (relatively) short, sharp shock of the revolutionary period (Gould, 1983, p. 153) because the pressure required to displace a successful but inert system is considerable and takes time to accumulate. When there is little inertia, change can be assimilated in a gradual and orderly fashion, but an entrenched system may need to be vigorously displaced. p. 3.
I know that the officers and directors need to be vigorously displaced, however the inertia to change will be strong to replace the stagnant and inert systems that so poorly serve the needs of the people, producers, Joint Operating Committees, service industry participants and society in general. And this is represented in our value proposition which shows $94 billion in incremental revenues and profits irretrievably lost for the 2012 calendar year. Similar revenue losses will be incurred each year this bureaucracy is in place. Which in 2023, when seen through producers specious accounting, is valid. Continued operations in the face of such value destruction has set the stage for "vigorous displacement.”
They, the officers and directors, have effectively mismanaged the oil & gas business in North America. In the oil & gas industry, "inertia" is strong, as shown by the deer in the headlights' response to collapsed natural gas and chronically depressed oil prices. It is to muddle along. Take what is given and survive another day. Is this the appropriate footing for an innovative oil & gas producer in the era of insatiable energy demand? With the rapid depletion and high costs of reworking shale gas reserves, there must be a better way. And that is the decentralized production model of the Preliminary Specification. Quotes are from Professor Richard Langlois' paper “Institutions, Inertia and Changing Industrial Leadership."
Here we concentrate on explaining the part played by inertia in causing economic displacement. We argue that inertia is often a rational response for firms or governments even after an important innovation becomes available, and that changes in economic leadership, whether on the level of the firm or the nation, may be inevitable when there is significant innovation. p. 4.
And
Here, we concentrate on the influence of institutional variables on inertia. Institutions may either retard or encourage innovation. If the institutional structure is unsuited to a new technology and inert, change will be difficult to implement. When existing institutions are flexible or well adapted to the requirements of an innovation, however, change will be accomplished relatively easily. p. 5.
Now is the time for the bureaucrats to retire to Florida permanently. They have forcefully resisted People, Ideas & Objects at every opportunity. And as indicated, unchangeable organizational structures were implemented. I don’t see any opportunity for cooperation, nor the need for cooperation. This can be done by the people who make the industry work. Entrepreneurs, movers and shakers and people who know there is a better way. The alternative to the Preliminary Specification has been a slow and painful atrophy. Intermixed with the bureaucrats' secondary business model of repeated bankruptcy.
And institutional change, we argue, can often take place through the more or less slow dying out of obsolete institutions in a population and their replacement by better-adapted institutions - rather than by the conscious adaptation of existing institutions in the face of change. p. 6.
There is a perception that moving away from the status quo bureaucracy will be difficult. How that transition occurs is through two possible alternatives. Existing producers can atrophy and die slowly. Or alternatively, the decision can be made to build the Preliminary Specification and move to the Joint Operating Committee, People, Ideas & Objects key Organizational Construct. There are seven Organizational Constructs that establish an innovative, performance and profitability culture in oil & gas. The decision to make the change is the appropriate choice to make, however there are other considerations to be made.
One of those considerations is the inertia within the current institutions. Many producers were developed in an era of low energy prices where survival skills were needed. Innovation was not rewarded and did not exist within the producer firm itself. Now that we are within reach of the era of insatiable energy demand, innovation is the key. This must become the firm's culture. Therefore in the Knowledge & Learning and other modules of the Preliminary Specification, whether it is by accident or by deliberate decision, the development of the innovative culture and the Preliminary Specification will always be an “outside” of the mainstream kind of development. Transitioning between these two eras would be difficult for any business to deal with. It is now clear that oil & gas can’t, won’t and will not ever make such a radical change to their underlying business. Higher commodity prices are the source of financial resources to support an innovative oil & gas industry. This is the polar opposite of the skills necessary to prosper in the survival, or low energy price era. Industry's counter argument is that they’re highly innovative. Which is incorrect. Any and all innovations can be identified and sourced directly from the service industry, not the producers.
Another aspect of capabilities that has recently received a great deal of attention is organizational culture. In practice, not all organizations may be equally able to cope with change, as existing patterns of behavior involving both executives and subordinates may be resistant to change. Organizations develop collective habits or ways of thinking that can be altered only gradually. To the extent that a given culture is either flexible or consistent with a proposed change in product or process technology, the transition to the new regime will be relatively easy. If, however, the culture is incompatible with the needs posed by the change and is inflexible, the viability of the change will be threatened (Robertson, 1990; Langlois 1991; Camerer and Vepsalainen, 1988). p. 9.
After all, we are not talking about minor changes to the accounting floor plan. Using the Joint Operating Committee and adopting the Preliminary Specification, we are making wholesale changes to the oil & gas industry. Change that is as significant as energy prices and the global demand structure. This will not be done successfully in a way that smooths over the rough edges.
Teece... fails to note that the inflexibility, or inertia, induced by routines and the capabilities that they generate can raise to prohibitive levels the cost of adopting a new technology or entering new fields. Such inertia can develop to the extent that existing rules are both hard to discard and inconsistent with types of change that might otherwise be profitable. p. 10.
Creative destruction has such a profound ring. It's at times like these that we see the scope of change and the need for change clashing with the desire for change. Some might look back and say that the North American oil & gas business refused to change, and change will be forced upon it.
Whereas major competence enhancing innovations may, in time, be assimilated, the creation of entirely new organizations may be needed to deal with innovations that undermine the capabilities or competencies of existing firms. p. 11.
As I have suggested, People, Ideas & Objects will be there one way or the other.
One More Kick at the Bureaucracy
It is at the Joint Operating Committee that bureaucracy has little to do. Therefore it seems opportune to discuss the fact that the bureaucracy needs to fade from the scene for operational work to be done. Our discussion carries on with the theme of kicking the bureaucracy and highlights how they have failed in the past. This is a brief review of Professor Alfred P. Chandler's work through Professor Richard Langlois' writings in “Chandler in a Larger Frame: Markets, Transaction Costs, and Organizational Form in History.”
It is at the Joint Operating Committee that all industry business is conducted. That is to say that most field operations are commanded and controlled as proposed in the Knowledge & Learning module of the Preliminary Specification. Therefore it will naturally be where everyone will be trying to stick their fingers in to be part of the action. We can be certain that the bureaucracy will assert that they need such and such a report by midnight. Let's be mindful of their ways and means and ensure that doesn’t happen.
One group that People, Ideas & Objects directed our message to is oil & gas industry investors. As Professor Chandler notes in his work, capital starts everything. Chandler's review of corporate history shows merchants' role. Investing their capital and skills, merchants started the ball rolling. I see no reason why we can’t turn to oil & gas investors in the same way. I expect that they will lead in this next phase of the industry.
After all it is the investors who have the most to lose. Bureaucracy has no stake in the firm. If a crisis strikes a firm, bureaucracy resumes elsewhere. Investors will shoulder the costs. Bureaucracy currently holds the reins, and they know their options exist elsewhere. Ownership, like merchants, needs to start over. Starting over begins with supporting People, Ideas & Objects and the Preliminary Specification.
The possibility of a bureaucratic failure is not new, it has happened before. Professor Chandler noted that the bureaucracy had failed before. During the great depression, a time when the government had to increase its involvement in the economy. Bureaucracy may not see the larger picture, and fail again. Since 2008 we've seen many changes. The oil & gas industry has certainly changed. Information technology is also having an effect. The time to act is now as there is much work to do.