Holiday Schedule

I've decided to move forward by one week the time that I take off for Christmas. I'll be returning on January 15, 2018. Merry Christmas everyone.

Two More Days

Can't' shake this flu / cold.

It's Just Not Working Is It

I am yet to see any evidence of the oil and gas investors buying the renewed profitability and discipline story being parroted by the producers. Since the third quarter there doesn’t appear to have been any change in the mindset of investors wanting to participate in the industry. It’s not that the investors don’t believe the producers renewed talking points, regarding profitability and discipline. Its that they would like to see some concrete actions in that direction. The other glaring aspect of the producer's business that frustrate the investors is the inability to address the commercialization of shale. Is shale a viable business? As it stands today it’s not, and the producers won’t address this point. Promoting the upside of shale is easy, everyone understands there’s lots of it. What investors want to know is how can they make money?

People, Ideas & Objects focus on profits has been discussed from the point of view of the investor on this blog. However, if you read the Preliminary Specification it is society in general that we are seeking to build value for. If the investors are satisfied with the profits they’re earning from the oil and gas industry it would be reasonable to assume that all elements of society would be satisfied too. And the counter argument is certainly valid today. The only ones benefiting from the current downturn are the bureaucrats. Their fine and appreciate your concern. The people who work in oil and gas, the people who work in the service industry, the service industry vendors, the royalty holders, the governments that collect the taxes on profits, the people who will need to work in oil and gas in the future and the overall prosperity usually associated with a healthy oil and gas industry in the communities where they operate have all suffered substantially for many years now. If the investors were satisfied these people would not be living such miserable lives and our focus on the investors is more representative of how the system works then it does on one specific group at the expense of all the others.

People, Ideas & Objects plans for 2018 continue to gain focus over these last few months. Our plans seeking to source our financial needs through the issuance of an Initial Coin Offering (ICO) remain fluid however. What was clear on September 26, 2017 was the bureaucrats had no interest in developing the Preliminary Specification. These bureaucrats are too conflicted to do what’s in the best interests of everyone else. Our pursuit of the producers as a source of revenues ceased at that time and we are proceeding with our alternative plans. These include appealing to the oil and gas investor, our user community and others to participate in our ICO. The extrinsic value of our coin will be the differential between the commodity prices realized today and those prices that will be realized through use of the Preliminary Specifications software when operational. Value that the producers have proven to be uninterested in and otherwise available for the taking.

The Preliminary Specification is now four years old and more valid than at any time before. Proving its business model is appropriate for the oil and gas industry. Not only is the Preliminary Specification still valid but the bureaucracy is still failing at a substantial pace. The test of time is a strong advocate for the work that People, Ideas & Objects are doing. And should provide strong support to the oil and gas community at large in terms of continuing to provide that value. The issue for the bureaucracy is they just can’t make the changes to the business model in the Preliminary Specification without the software being developed first. Any attempt by them to only produce profitable properties will only keep all of their properties producing because they have no means of assessing profitability on a property by property basis. Their overheads are all corporate and fixed, whereas the Preliminary Specifications overheads are charged to the property and variable. Therefore the property will always record at least miniscule profits when you capitalize all of the costs under the sun, including on average 80% of overhead, recognize that capital over a 27 year period in some cases and not recognize any of the costs of Houston, Dallas, Oklahoma or Calgary and their overheads. What property wouldn’t make a “profit” in that case?

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide for a dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas industry with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in our future Initial Coin Offering (ICO) that will fund these user defined software developments. It is through the process of issuing our ICO that we are leading the way in which creative destruction can be implemented within the oil and gas industry. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

Parallels to the Industrial Revolution

I read an interesting analysis regarding the lead up to the industrial revolution that may have direct application to the Information Technology revolution that we seem to be going through. It was from  voxeu.org  and I recommend everyone have a look at the article in order to appreciate the implications in today’s marketplace. Although it could be argued that the IT revolution has provided much promise, outside of automated emoji’s and Facebook we have gained very little. I think this article addresses that point with a discussion of the proceeding years and their impact on society that in essence enabled the industrial revolution to begin. It would be my opinion that many of these foundational aspects of the industrial revolution are currently missing in the IT revolution. Which might be the cause of its poor uptake.

What the article states is that in 1534 Henry VIII had a spat with the Pope and broke off from the Catholic Church. Henry then acquired the taxes that were being forwarded to the Catholic Church for his own purposes and when that was not enough, seized the land of the monasteries in England. This turned out to be approximately ⅓ of all of the land in England and when the administration of such was too much, Henry decided to sell the land. The articles authors hypothesis that the creation of these land markets “can be linked to local differences in subsequent development and, ultimately, industrialisation.” Fostering the entrepreneurial spirit. The authors conclusion is as follows.

The Dissolution created a land market and started the modernisation of land tenure relationships. This led to division of labour, innovation, greater productivity, rationalisation of property rights, and changes in social structure. Ultimately, these factors coalesced into industrialisation in those places where the monasteries held lands centuries before the Industrial Revolution. The institutional change driven by the Dissolution is a more important driver of local industrialisation than commonly used explanations – such as local abundance of coal.

My argument would be consistent with today’s bureaucracy having the same effect on development as the Pope did in 1534. Although we have no need to dump the Catholic Church we should dump the bureaucracy as I’ve described in the Preliminary Specification. The development of markets is the impediment to the full development of the Information Technology revolution. To People, Ideas & Objects the now mature Information Technologies are lying dormant as a result of the bureaucrats unwillingness to let go of the past. The implementation of the Preliminary Specification would establish within the industry and producers the use of the Joint Operating Committee as the key organizational construct. It would also provide the Resource, Petroleum Lease and Financial Marketplace modules. In the administrative and accounting areas markets would be established for the user community and, most importantly of all, the service providers, the means in which we can provide oil and gas producers with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations.

People are locked up in their cubicles and offices unable to exercise their entrepreneurial spirit. Constrained by their lifestyle and the ease that the bureaucracy provides for that. But also itching to want to do something more than count the days. They too can see the IT resources developing around them and understand the impact they could have if they could only… Such is the nature of work today. People need to see these markets forming in a somewhat concrete manner in order to make the transition. The real impetus to change will be the investment capital resources have to lead. That is their role in society and although withholding capital from the producers is the first phase of these changes. We need them to transition to the second phase and begin to support these markets and methods of organization that will provide them with real value in the long run.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide for a dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas industry with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in our future Initial Coin Offering (ICO) that will fund these user defined software developments. It is through the process of issuing our ICO that we are leading the way in which creative destruction can be implemented within the oil and gas industry. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

Energy Independence in North America

Energy independence in North America is the objective that everyone can agree on. It is understood by most everyone to be a win, win, win situation for society. With the development of shale based reserves this objective isn’t just a dream but a highly desired and obtainable possibility. What this post will detail is the means in which energy independence is proposed to be obtained by both the current administration and People, Ideas & Objects Preliminary Specification.

The Preliminary Specification reorganizes the producer and industry to accommodate variable production volumes. This is done so that producers can ensure that they only ever produce from profitable properties. Unprofitable properties are shut-in until such time as innovations can be found to reduce costs, increase production or enhance the reserves. This is enabled through our decentralized production model and its price maker strategy. Which seeks to match costs more accurately with the revenues that are generated. Under the Preliminary Specification any shut-in properties will incur a null operation, no profit but also no loss. This is done as all of the costs of the producers are converted into variable costs based on production.

This conversion of all of the producers costs into variable costs is through the reorganization of the producer and industry. By moving the administrative and accounting resources of the producers to individual service providers that are focused and specialized on one individual process. Where each service provider has the entire industry as their client base. Then processing of their administrative or accounting process is completed and the associated overhead fees of the service provider are charged directly to the Joint Operating Committee. If there is no production for the month then nothing will be processed for that property through our task and transfer network and the service provider will not be conducting any work or charging the Joint Operating Committee any of the fees for their service. This has moved the burden of cost control in the area of administration and accounting from the producer firm to the service providers themselves. In which they will be able to budget and plan on an annual basis for the contingency that they may have upwards of 15% of their revenues decline due to the volume of industry wide shut-in production.

Establishing all of the industries production on the basis of earning a profit will substantially enhance the profitability of each producer. No longer will they be diluted by the unprofitable properties that continue to be produced in today’s current environment. The reserves that would otherwise have been produced unprofitably can therefore be saved for a time when they can be produced profitably. Reducing the cost of the remaining reserves by not adding each year's incremental losses to the costs of the reserves. Forcing the property to recover the chronic losses in subsequent years. And most importantly, the commodity markets will be able to find the marginal cost of those commodities and enhance the profitability of the industry through higher commodity prices.

By establishing the industry on the basis of profitable operations oil and gas can be managed as a mature industry. The belief that growth in the industry is the objective may have been an appropriate posture in the 1940’s. Today it is time that the industry began to perform from a financial perspective. It has used the investors money in the past four decades to subsidize the consumers of energy. The amount of the consumer subsidy being equal to the outsized property, plant and equipment accounts that the bureaucrats cherish so much. These account balances are nothing more than the unrecognized capital costs associated with past production. These capital balances should have been repeatedly turned over to generate the cash to operate the business. Instead the investment remains dormant for up to 27 years in property, plant and equipment while the producers continually issue new stock offerings to spend and build their capital asset balances ever higher. Oil and gas hasn’t been a business, it’s an engineering and geological science experiment.

Once the Preliminary Specification has established the industry on a profitable footing then the deliverability can be increased profitably in order to attain the objective of energy independence in North America. Producers today are just waiting for the investors to return. The Investors that went on strike when they finally learned what their role in the industry was. Just as soon as producers can begin issuing more stock the quicker energy independence will be achieved. That investors maybe on the hook for many trillions of further investment, which would glow radioactive in the property, plant and equipment accounts for the next few decades, has to be encouraging. After oil and gas experienced an existential threat over the last decade. And the only actions of the bureaucrats during this time appears to have been a recent “striking up of the band” for another round of the same. What investor doesn’t want to be part of that energy independence in North America shindig!

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide for a dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas industry with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in our future Initial Coin Offering (ICO) that will fund these user defined software developments. It is through the process of issuing our ICO that we are leading the way in which creative destruction can be implemented within the oil and gas industry. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

Manic Times

Today we hit the high water mark in terms of the manic - depressive cycle that North American producers have put themselves on. With a fresh extension of the OPEC agreement, prices close to $60 / bbl, things haven’t looked so good in the industry for years. Ever get that feeling of deja vu all over again. Buoyed by a compliant and cheerleading media the producers have world dominance at their fingertips. There’s just nothing that can’t be done by them. Their costs are down and they’ve learned to believe in profits which is what they believe their investors are asking for. From my point of view there is only one major difficulty. It’s not working.

The nature of this overproduction and oversupply issue is not something that can be ignored and assumed to fade as OPEC clears up any global inventory overhang and consumers demand more energy. There will always be consumers and there will always be inventories. There will also always be the other shale producers who are responsible for the overproduction. Each and every producer will ensure anyone that will listen that they are not the source of the overproduction issue. Each of the North American producers believe they have it within their domain to control themselves. Clearly they don’t, they need the cash.

What surprises me is the number of producers who have stated that their costs have been reduced. Nothing could be more incorrect. Almost all of the producers have increased the number of years in which they are depleting their property, plant and equipment accounts. Increasing the number of years by 30% since the end of 2016 for our sample of 23 producers. That will make an impact on the income statement and the appearance of reduced costs, and higher profits however this is accounting shenanigans. The probability that any of the producers actually reduced their historical costs is zero. Once you pay $1 to drill and complete a well that is what it costs. Any attempts to reduce the costs in the current period would have to be fraudulent. You can’t change historical facts. It is possible that the field operations are more refined and downhole work more efficient which has brought about some cost reductions. These would only apply to the current work in progress which may account for all of 5% of the producers properties.

Which brings up the rationale of why are the high cost North American producers crowding out the low cost OPEC producers? The logic doesn’t exist for this to continue in a market economy and it is therefore reasonable to assume that OPEC won’t be the one to always withhold production. Shale producers are proving to be resilient in terms of production growth and for lack of a better word aggressive in terms of their entitlement to first priority in the marketplace. Can this continue? What if the belief is true that the Saudi’s are only playing nice for now until they complete their Saudi Aramco IPO. Then once that’s complete they can sell their production at whatever price the market provides. Understanding that the overabundance of oil over the next 50 years will only provide for the lowest cost producers. Will the cooperation being expressed by the North American producers towards who is entitled to produce now earn them a seat at the table tomorrow when low cost producers are just looking for revenues?

The Saudi oil minister said after yesterday’s meeting that finding equilibrium in oil markets will take another two to three years. A sober reflection of the issue at hand. Contrast this with the attitude of the North American producers who appear hell bent on world domination. I think it is a clear reflection of the desperate financial position that they’ve put themselves in. Their outlook is towards the next payroll and to sell as much production as they can. The business of the oil and gas business doesn’t concern them. They can produce unprofitable production at investor expense for ever. That is just as soon as the investor's return.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide for a dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas industry with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in our future Initial Coin Offering (ICO) that will fund these user defined software developments. It is through the process of issuing our ICO that we are leading the way in which creative destruction can be implemented within the oil and gas industry. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here.