Our Plan, Part III

Now with the user community engaged it's time that we put the oil and gas industry and the producers on notice that we’re commencing developments effective September 4, 2017. Their options are limited, in our opinion, to supporting People, Ideas & Objects and its user community or closing their doors. There has been a lot of mud slinging these past few years but now is the time to get to work. People are beginning to see the problem that the Preliminary Specification is designed to solve. Some, unaware of the Preliminary Specification, even calling the issue unsolvable. It’s a difficult issue which is material to the health of the industry. Maybe producers will concern themselves with this opportunity, maybe they’ll chuckle. Either way they should consider the following.

It’s no longer just People, Ideas & Objects that are involved in this initiative. Our user community which is a fully independent organization, that is fully dedicated to resolving these issues, is also involved. People, Ideas & Objects have exhibited a persistence and commitment to resolving this issue over the past decades. We are stubborn and proud of it. I would hope that these characteristics are inherent in the user community. It may be unwise for the industry and producers to assume that it is. What if the user community, which is made up of professionals from the industry, doesn’t see the requisite support from industry. It’s too early to tell of course and we don’t want to be asking that question at any time in the future. It’s not within the user communities scope of risk to undertake.

This initiative is moving forward to rectify the issues in oil and gas. Should the industry support it? Why is this in question? People, Ideas & Objects and our user community have a value proposition that is in the trillions of dollars. These are incremental revenues to the costs that are already being incurred. These revenues would flow to the bottom line with only additional royalties and taxes being incurred. Again, why is this in question?

Abandoning the user community will leave the industry with no options. To disband would be like Humpty Dumpty, would industry be able to be put it back together again? The question would need to be asked, and what would happen to the Intellectual Property contained within the user community vision? It would still exist however only as a means in which the industry could not develop an alternate solution to People, Ideas & Objects and our user community. If industry refuses the user community and People, Ideas & Objects they are rejecting the Intellectual Property in the Preliminary Specification. We would also assert our Copyright of any other initiative that tried to use it in any way.

Then what? It took me ten years of research to come up with the Preliminary Specification. Maybe I’m slow. Does the industry have that kind of time to develop a new, workable and viable business model. This was ten years of research that was done after I determined the Joint Operating Committee is the key organizational construct of the industry. What organizational basis will the industry use to base an alternate specification upon. Or will the industry hold on to its policy of never paying royalties for Intellectual Property and litigate my claims for the next few years. It’s not so much the amount of time that industry has. Its how much money do they have. They have none and they’re running out of what they have very quickly. They need to start thinking more strategically and dump this muddle along strategy.

People, Ideas & Objects and our user community are currently constrained by the imagination of its members. Our capacity and ability to think, to resolve issues is the only impediment to us delivering software. We are on Internet time. We are implementing Oracle Fusion Middleware and Applications on an industry wide basis. That is our task. The only thing that could derail us now is the lack of, or constrained support from the industry and producer firms. This may be the key point for everyone to be thinking about. The issue is ripening and the solution in the form of the Preliminary Specification is in hand. Producers need to act decisively and quickly. I am not the enemy, I am presenting the solution to your problems.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

Our Plan, Part II

In yesterday’s blog post we commenced the developments of the Preliminary Specification. This began with a call to our user community to complete their applications and submit them to People, Ideas & Objects in order that we start building software on September 4, 2017. We have been involved in the development of our user community since the publication of the final copy of the Preliminary Specification in December 2013. Our commitment to user community based developments are unshakable. I will not involve this development in anything but user based developments and this is represented in the structure and configuration of People, Ideas & Objects user community vision. If you’ve been sitting on the sidelines waiting for the time to act and make your submission for the user community, now is that time. The oil and gas industry and producers have a systemic, chronic and unfixed issue that has resisted any identification or resolution to this point. I think I’ve documented here that the existing producers capacity to undertake the necessary changes to correct these problems is impossible. Therefore this issue is terminal to their health and welfare.

If you’ve ever wanted to involve yourself in user community developments. Now is that time to jump on board. Waiting at this time, thinking that People, Ideas & Objects are involved in a false start may prove to be difficult to overcome. Participation and commitment will be seen of those who desire to correct this issue in the industry and those who seek a better way. Now is the time to decide, what’s best for the industry, what’s best for society in general and what’s best for our future. Being a part of that is what is being offered through our user communities participation. Participation is about leadership. Leadership of the oil and gas industry through its darkest days. We will not be able to roll back the clock to this starting point for those that decide to wait it out.

Somebody needs to express to me a vision of how the industry can continue without the Preliminary Specification. I can’t see it. We have destitute oil and gas producers. I’ve never seen financial statements that reflect that these producer firms have been so destroyed, in my life. Throughout the industry. No cash, no working capital and no banking or investor support. Chronic and devastating losses. We go from optimism that commodity prices are going to rebound to the next commodity price decline, in as little as three months. Producers are stuck in a revolving door that has been locked and they’re just spinning around until they die of hunger. There is no leadership in the industry. It is their muddle along strategy’s ultimate manifestation of itself. Insanity.

We can sit and watch this act play out for a few more years. That could be eight more cycles of commodity price rebounds and declines. Sounds exciting to me. But at what point as a user community do we have to take responsibility for having this continue? Are we not becoming as responsible as the bureaucrats with their do nothing strategy. We as a user community are not doing anything either. We need to assert our leadership now and begin the process of forming and building the necessary user community to ensure that this nightmare ends. It is not up to us, yet, but it will be, and it will be because of us that this issue is resolved in a timely and effective way in the industry.

If you want user community involvement in the ERP systems you use in oil and gas then you’ll have to participate. If you want to have the power that is authorized to the user community through People, Ideas & Objects user community vision. Then you have to begin using it. It has been over three years that we’ve worked to plant the seed of the user community to drive the Preliminary Specifications development. It's now time for those users to make the changes in their life that they need to make to save the industry from itself. What we do know today is that no one is going to be doing so on their behalf. Those in responsible and authoritative positions would prefer to attack me than do anything constructive. There time to act came along time ago. It’s not that I started to do this a few weeks ago. They’ve known about this initiative for a long time and they’ve chosen not to do anything about it. Now we need to take the responsibility and authority away from them by establishing the user community, building the Preliminary Specification and fixing what is clearly wrong in the industry. Join me.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here.

Our Plan, Part I

A quick summation of People, Ideas & Objects blog postings over the past six months. Has us identify and recognize the opportunity to establish a startup oil and gas producer has never been better. Our first series entitled “Best Business Opportunity, Ever” documented how the legacy costs and other constraints present in the current producers make for an impossible to remediate financial situation. That investors need to move to newly established producers. Companies that hold none of the legacy debts and share structures of the current producers. It is these legacy constraints that preclude any value ever being accrued to the new investors in the future. With the investors capitalization of these start-ups, these new producers can prosper by buying the old producers crown jewels at fire sale prices. Our second, just completed blog series documented why industry needs to proceed with the development of the Preliminary Specification. Entitled “My Argument” it provides the rationale to make the now evident and necessary changes in the industry and producer firms. These changes are to address the issues in the industry and are becoming more obvious to people each and every day.

Our new series, “The Plan” will document what we plan to do about all of this. 2017 is going to be the year in which we begin developments. The acceleration in People, Ideas & Objects momentum is breathtaking. I have been at this for almost 26 years and struggled for years at a time to move this initiative forward by an inch. Now we’re travelling at Internet speed and the next five years are going to be a blur. The issue in the oil and gas industry is ripe and soon to be over ripe. Choices for producers to resolve these issues are limited to People, Ideas & Objects Preliminary Specification and closing the doors. Our very good friends the bureaucrats won’t make the decision. They’ll just part ways with the company when things become untenable. Or in other words very soon. Their story about cold winters, or market rebalancing or that they’re now disciplined was believed over and over again these past few years. Faith that they understood what was necessary was placed in them, and yet here we are heading into another commodity price decline with all the associated pain being distributed everywhere. Will anyone be listening to what they have to say this time?

So here’s our plan. We begin developments of the Preliminary Specification effective September 4, 2017. People who are interested in participating in this development through our user community should begin the application process now. It will take time to both read the Preliminary Specification and develop your submission. It is imperative that everyone thoroughly read and even study the Preliminary Specification in its entirety to understand how the industry and the producer will operate in the future. Focusing on your area of concern and specialization will come through the process of development. Your focus now needs to be in gaining the overall understanding of the Preliminary Specification in order to comprehend the implications of the new business model and its impact. That way when we engage with one another within the community we will be well versed in the objectives and tasks that are necessary. Additional consideration will need to be given by yourself to the development of a service provider organization that you as a user community member will be called upon to provide to the industry. Begin to think of how it is that you will organize and establish that service. Determination of which processes will be distributed to which user community member will be based on the efforts and contributions made during the development process. Once developments are done we will be able to determine who has earned what opportunities.

User community participation is a part-time position. It will continue throughout the developments. People, Ideas & Objects are providing a software development capability to the oil and gas industry to provide the flexibility they need to meet the changes in their business. Therefore the user community will be in existence always. User community members primary source of revenues are the service providers they will be establishing to service the oil and gas producer and industry once our software is operational. Their secondary source will be the continued revenues earned as a user community member. Recall the decentralized production model reorganizes the producers administrative and accounting resources into the individual service providers. Focused on a single process and applying their services across the industry as their client base. The service provider organization which they own will be the primary source of revenue for the user community member.

No one is going to tell us to get moving. We are probably late in materially helping the industry in the short term. Things could get much worse and we should work towards resolving this systemic, chronic and otherwise unsolvable problem. It is up to us to do this. And it will be up to us to keep the industry dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here.

Third Friday Off

No posting today.

My Argument, Part XXXVIII

It wasn’t long ago that the bureaucrats at the oil and gas producers were talking of energy independence on the continent. How quickly these ambitions have evaporated in the reality of their chronic oversupply of oil and gas. The light has now been turned onto the real issue and everyone can see as clear as day who the real culprits are. No one is hiding behind aspirations of energy independence in North America anymore. People know that the oil and gas producers will not be given another chance to make this right by “market rebalancing” or other wishful thinking. Comments such as these are being found everywhere as the reality of the size of this issue sinks in. From World Oil.

“People are worried about the future,” says Janet Weiss, president of BP’s Alaska division. “It’s a lower-for-longer world, and we’ve got to find a way to adapt to that.”

People, Ideas & Objects have the way in which we can adapt to the current situation, we call it the Preliminary Specification. Which if we did adopt it we would be able to put energy independence back on the table. The objective of the Preliminary Specification is firstly to turn all of the North American production profitable. Then when that is achieved, we can look at the ways and means that we can expand the industries throughput through the further development of the Preliminary Specification. Answering the question of how we’ll expand the resource base of engineers and geologists for the mid to long term. How we can repair and replace the aging oil and gas infrastructure. Then we can apply ourselves to expanding the throughput of the industries oil and gas production profile so that we are reliant only on ourselves. We know the reserves are there but there is so much more that needs to be in place. That’s how you would conduct yourself if you were serious about an ambitious plan such as energy independence.

What oil and gas producers and the brokers are selling today I don’t understand. It’s all sunshine and rainbows as far as they can tell. It’s as if the producers financial statements are irrelevant and only provide their accountants with something to do. Financially 2016 was a disaster for all producers. Far worse than 2015 in almost 100% of the cases. The worst year on record. There is no cash anywhere in the industry. No working capital with producers owing every service industry provider many year's worth of past work. Revenues are down and no one is generating any cash flow. So producers are looking for any source of cash that they can find. Stock prices of the producers are all highly overvalued so now would be a good time to be issuing stock. Yet there is little activity there and not one bank is participating in the industry that I can see. The only source of cash is the diminishing revenues of the producer. Diminishing due to the price declines from chronic overproduction and the producer's own decline curve.

If you tell the lie enough times people will begin to believe it. That is the new strategy of the bureaucrats. As an oil and gas investor looking at the producers they see the desperate need for funds and the legacy of the past four decades of accounting deception. Bloated balance sheets stick out in outsized fashion today in comparison to revenues that are single digits of the capital investment. In other words the opportunity for returns will be slim to none in the next ten years. You also have to stand behind the thousand and millions of existing shareholders who are also waiting in line for something out of these companies. That assumes of course that the producer has either serviced their debts where interest payments are in some cases one third of revenues, or paid the debts down by selling the crown jewels. As an investor which fire do I throw my money onto?

I know one group that has determined that they’ve had enough. Our user community. Activity there is at an all time high. It appears to me that people are turning their back on the oil and gas producers and saying enough is enough. People don’t expect to see the days when they work directly for an oil and gas company again. And if they’re committed to the industry they’re looking for ways in which to stay employed in the industry. People, Ideas & Objects user community is seeing 775% increases over 2016 in our numbers of people inquiring about our community. The light certainly has turned on for the people who work in the industry. There is no question about that.

And that is why we hold energy independence as the objective that is possible through our technologies. It's the first step. Then profitability has to become the religion of the industry. The investors response to this current downswing in the price of oil and gas is unknown at this time. If they’ve determined that they’ve had enough it will be a long time before they come back. And when they do it will only be on the basis that the industry is proven to be profitable from stem to stern.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

My Argument, Part XXXVII

Maximum pain will now be distributed throughout the North American oil and gas industry. You may have thought that the situation was turning around. We were told as much by the producers. The need to make changes prescribed by People, Ideas & Objects Preliminary Specification were laughed at and ridiculed again in December 2016. Producers had it under control. Oil prices were higher, natural gas prices were higher. And they don’t need no stinken software. They assured everyone that they wouldn’t be making the same mistake again, this time they had discipline. Yet here we are again with prices of both commodities in freefall. How could this have happened?

Implementing the Preliminary Specification in a normal environment has been understood by me to be a non-starter. You could never muster the energy necessary to make the changes within the producer and industry, and as a result the initiative would have eventually failed. We have always premised the implementation of the Preliminary Specification as a remedial rebuilding of the industry after its complete destruction had been done by the bureaucrats. This being the creative destruction that is the lifeblood of our advanced capitalist systems method of renewal.

I started this project 26 years ago this coming May. Based on what I saw as the difficulties being experienced in the 1980’s and 1990’s with low oil prices in the marketplace. All the producers needed to do was to shut-in some production, prices would rise and the industry would be out of a multi-decade downturn. Simple. However, once you started looking at the reasons why the producers can’t, won’t and will not ever shut-in production, you can see how complex the problem is. That’s why it took until 2013 to publish the Preliminary Specification. Based on the August 2003 realization that the use of the Joint Operating Committee was the solution to all of these problems. The ten years in between those dates was pure research into what and how the solution had to be, and all of that can be read here on this blog.

Now is the time for the Preliminary Specification to commence its developments. If you believe that the industry will last much longer in the hands of the bureaucrats then you’ve made your choice. If, however, on the other hand you believe that they’ve fundamentally destroyed the industry and its only the phase where maximum pain has to be extracted from all of those people, companies and investors in the industry. Then you should be reviewing our project to determine where you fit in. There can be no doubt in anyone's mind that the success of People, Ideas & Objects Preliminary Specification in the marketplace is necessary in order for the eventual success of the oil and gas industry. We can’t go back to the old ways of doing things due to the scope and scale of the failure that is about to be realized.

The way that the oil and gas industry has been run is rotten to the core. What producers say doesn’t relate back to their financial statements. They can’t be trusted to run a profitable operation. They don’t know what profit means. They’ve stored decades of past production costs as property, plant and equipment on the balance sheet and continue to expect investors to believe this means their worth something. They destroy value and have done so for decades. They are completely out of control and exercise no discipline whatsoever. The full realization of all of this is just about to hit those that have the most to lose in terms of monetary value. The investors.

Who is going to stick around and suffer through the rebuilding? We know the bureaucrats will cut and run at the first whisper of real trouble so we don’t need to concern ourselves with them. The opportunity to give the bureaucrats one more chance has clearly evaporated. Article after article in the business papers are now showing that the light is finally shining on this issue. Natural gas is projected to fall below $2 and oil is projected by some to fall into the $20s. And why wouldn’t they? There is nothing stopping these producers from completely overwhelming the markets in such fundamental ways that it’ll take years of disciplined profitable production through the Preliminary Specifications decentralized production model in order to rehabilitate the commodity markets. If maximum pain is what is required to make the changes in the process of creative destruction. Maximum pain is what the producers have created for everyone, and what we are all going to experience.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

My Argument, Part XXXVI

With evaluations of ERP systems being done on behalf of some producers. The question becomes what are the markets offerings. Only People, Ideas & Objects have a detailed specification of a system that deals with the issues that are ever present in the industry. A specification that requires the software to be developed. Others are offering functioning software code. Presenting to the industry, and the producer firms, the inherent issues that software presents to organizations. This post will argue the reasons why producers are better off choosing the developments of People, Ideas & Objects and moving to the Preliminary Specifications development.

Two of the key constraints in the use of ERP software are simply code and customers. As the software developer matures their code base continues to expand. Creating an overall conflict of interest due to code maintenance, which conversely doesn't generate any revenues. Customers also provide a conflict. As the customer base expands, support costs expand as well. Although these costs may be supported by the sale contract. The ability to make changes to the code become progressively more difficult with the increase in the volume of customers. As we’ve discussed here at People, Ideas & Objects software defines, supports and constrains organizations.

What's so different about People, Ideas & Objects Preliminary Specification? We are change oriented software developers. We generate revenues based on the changes that are present in the producer firms, industry and service providers. Our Revenue Model specifies how this monkey gets paid. Driven by the user community and dependent on the changes in the underlying business. If we should happen to need to replace entire modules then that is what will be done. People, Ideas & Objects compete based on the software development capabilities that we bring to the oil and gas producers and industry.

Another key component of our competitive strategy is the development of our Intellectual Property. With the Preliminary Specification we have developed substantial IP based on the 10 years of research that was conducted prior to its development. In order for the necessary changes to take place in the industry. Changes such as the adoption of the decentralized production model and price maker strategy. It is inevitable that the industry and producers will need to develop the Preliminary Specification. Use of the Preliminary Specifications underlying Intellectual Property outside of People, Ideas & Objects and our user community is not possible. Our Intellectual Property is the key to our user communities capabilities and will not be available for use outside of the user community vision.

As a key to our competitive advantage and development of the quality of user community we take our Intellectual Property seriously. Most people think this becomes a legal issue due to the rights inherent in copyright and other forms of Intellectual Property. In a small market such as oil and gas. With only a few hundred producers in the industry. We have put the producers CEO’s on notice, elsewhere and through this posting, that we will not accept any unauthorized use of our Intellectual Property. We know that these producers are good corporate citizens as are all the other participants in the industry, and our competitors. Therefore they wouldn’t spend the time or the substantial amounts of money that would be necessary to duplicate the Preliminary Specification for their own benefit. Their CEO’s would know that they would never be able to use the software from that venture if they did develop something on that basis.

Therefore there will only be one Preliminary Specification and user community. The user community itself will always be independent of the industry and that is its nature. There is however an implicit contract between industry and People, Ideas & Objects regarding the corporate structure and its ownership. The industry has me to build the Preliminary Specification, and then they can purchase that from me when it's complete for their own purposes. It is in that way, eventually, they can satisfy their need to own their ERP software.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

My Argument, Part XXXV

What do you know, pigs do fly. I thought that we were moving into a position where the focus of the issue of low commodity prices from overproduction might land where the culprits lay. Until now the Saudi’s and OPEC have taken the heat for low oil prices. I believed OPEC’s production sharing agreement was designed to change the focus away from them as the culprits and onto the North American producers, and most specifically the shale producers. My thinking being that if the oil prices did decline again, even after the production sharing agreement was in place, it wouldn’t be as a result of OPEC and we would then search for the real culprits. Last Thursday we had that admission from none other than Harold Hamm of Continental Resources. He stated the following in World Oil.

HOUSTON (Bloomberg) -- Harold Hamm, the billionaire shale oilman, said the U.S. industry could "kill" the oil market if it embarks into another spending binge, a rare warning in a business focused on fast growth to compete with OPEC. 

Based on the increased production profile of the United States, and the proposed capital budgets of the U.S. producers they’ve already killed the price of oil. Evidence of this is the fact that oil is trading as low as $48.79 down 11% from $54.45 in late February. Don't believe me, just wait and we'll see a further, precipitous drop in the price of oil. Now I think the issue that People, Ideas & Objects Preliminary Specification identified and resolved many years ago, that being systemic overproduction as a result of the industry standard “muddle along” strategy and business model, could become the consensus understanding in the industry. Then I would suggest the decentralized production model’s price maker strategy would be seen as the common sense solution. If you disagree then now might be good time to read our Preamble.

On a related note, we are finding documentary evidence that ERP systems are under consideration in oil and gas. For example, according to KPMG's Calgary job site people are being recruited to fill positions to meet the increased ERP systems demand from producers. These recruits are being asked to evaluate ERP market offerings on behalf of producers. What are these recruits going to be faced with in terms of offerings? I would suggest their first step would be to read our Revenue Model. Understand the history of how the producers have used and abused the ERP vendors over the last few decades to the point where only People, Ideas & Objects are offering anything new. As a result you’ll be hard pressed to see anything happen in this ERP market space before we see the color of the producers cash. I think the saying is four times bitten, fifth time shy.

Hence with no investment being made on behalf of the producers into ERP systems vendors, no investment has been made on behalf of the ERP systems providers. Pretty simple really. Therefore no vision, no plan, no understanding of the issues or how to solve them. Will any of these ERP systems providers adopt a user community based development and invest the years that People, Ideas & Objects have already dedicated to our communities development? What will their revenue model be and how will they overcome the issues we’ve identified. Hiring KPMG who are hiring people off the street, a.k.a. box tickers of existing software, will certainly answer these questions.

The key to this situation is to understand that OPEC achieved what they set out to do with the production sharing agreement. Shifting the focus of the issue onto the real culprit, the North American shale producer. One can see they've already changed their position in the following quote.

Al-Falih, in a clear message to the U.S. industry, said it would be "wishful thinking" to expect that Saudi Arabia and OPEC "will underwrite the investments of others at our own expense" through production cuts.

Evaluating ERP systems is rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic. What we really need to do is for someone, I would suggest the oil and gas investors, take the keys away from these bureaucrats. They don't deserve the right to continue. And they only have Santa Claus left to blame for their overproduction and oversupply. This is an issue I identified in the late 1980’s and early 1990’s and continues today, and there should be no doubt in anyone's mind, that without the Preliminary Specification, it will continue well into the future. Otherwise, the only thing bureaucrats will prove after their inevitable ERP system failure. A failure that no doubt will be due to the inability to address the overproduction issues. Then bureaucrats will be able to say that they’ve tried ERP, it failed and is not the solution. Establishing themselves in positions of authority and responsibility for another generation.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

My Argument, Part XXXIV

I think we’ve seen this movie before haven’t we? Natural gas prices are down to just below $3 from their recent high’s of almost $4. Oil is looking shaky, dropping as much as 6% on Wednesday due to inventories at record levels and the recent production surge from shale producers. This in the beginning of the third month of the OPEC production sharing agreement. Most tragic of all is the financial statements of the North American producers reflect the damage that overproduction and oversupply has done and that none of them, anywhere, are making any money. Why are producers so hesitant to deal on price? Why do they always look to make up any revenue shortfall with volume? Why are producers so hesitant to accept their business model has failed? And why are producers so hesitant to accept People, Ideas & Objects Preliminary Specification, with our decentralized production model and its price maker strategy?

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected U.S. oil production would rise to an average of 9.2 million bpd in 2017 and 9.7 million bpd in 2018, which, if correct, would top the current record high of 9.6 million bpd set in 1970.

The inability of the oil and gas industry to consider any alternative to this scenario is what people should be most concerned about. It is a closed mind, incapable of considering the facts regarding the disaster that they’ve created and are suffering through. The cost to society in the various forms that we’ve detailed here is tragic. Yet, what we do hear is a confident producer preaching to OPEC and other non-OPEC members that they better get in line. From World Oil.

The Permian basin of West Texas and New Mexico, which emerged as the hottest region for drilling during the 2 1/2 year downturn, would see a major curtailment of rigs at $40/bbl, while other shale plays in the U.S. would become uneconomic, he said. If all goes well, though, production at the field will surge to a range of 8 to 10 MMbpd over the next decade, from 2.3 million now, he said.

Vicki Hollub, CEO of Occidental Petroleum Corp., said later in the day that she sees output from the Permian eventually growing to about 4 to 5 MMbpd.

Sheffield said he hadn’t expected supply and demand in the global oil market to rebalance until next year. Only full compliance on production cuts from OPEC and non-OPEC members might speed that up to the middle of this year, he said. That hasn’t happened yet: Although 90% of OPEC’s 1.2 MMbpd of agreed-upon cuts have been accomplished, another 600,000 bpd of reductions promised from non-OPEC producers are at 50 percent compliance, he said. "The rest of the non-OPEC countries have to get onboard, especially Russia."

OPEC and non-OPEC member compliance to the production sharing agreement has been significant. This has enabled the North American producers to fill the void with U.S. shale production. It is obvious based on that previous comment that the basic assumption that these North American producers are operating under is that the rest of the world should stay clear of the U.S. and do as they’re told. From Fox News.

Kuwait Oil Minister Essam Al-Marzouq said on Wednesday that OPEC's compliance with an oil output cut stood at 140 percent in February, while non-OPEC members compliance was 50-60 percent.

If we go back a month or so to what was said by BP’s Chief Economist regarding double the reserve supply for the next 33 years. That this over abundance may lead the low cost producers in OPEC to reconsider their strategy of keeping their product in the ground. And just produce at whatever price they can get. A global free-for-all. North American producers are in financial difficulty and are heading into terminal financial conditions at this time. If OPEC adopts the strategy of production at whatever price there will never be an opportunity to produce profitably in North America again. The sum total of all that has ever happened in North American oil and gas up to this point would be subsequently destroyed and wasted. In light of this we hear at the CERA conference, from the Oil and Gas Journal.

During a meeting on the sidelines of the conference with chief executives of major US shale producers, Barkindo said he “congratulated them for pioneering this new frontier” of shale, praising their combination of technology and operational skills, managerial ingenuity, and a financial system that supports creativity.

“We only wish that it was done in an orderly fashion without creating this severe cycle that we are still battling to come out of,” Barkindo added. 

The title of that article is “CERAweek: OPEC done bearing ‘burden of free riders.’” With all due respect, North American producers have not bought into the religion of profitable operations. Producers need to do more than ride the commodity prices up and down. They need to build value all the time. I have been screaming about this for over a decade, providing our solution, the Preliminary Specification, and they only refute that profits are irrelevant and resume their baseball bat beatings of me. “Remember, never propose a new idea in oil and gas” they always say as they pound away. North American producers threats to OPEC are being taken seriously and in turn OPEC say they want to work with North American producers. The threats from OPEC, however, are not being heard. This is dangerous, particularly in an industry that has the financial position that oil and gas is in. Producers have left little bargaining room for themselves and they chose to threaten suicide as the tactic to get what they want. I would suggest that they adopt Opec’s suggestion of “an orderly fashion” and begin developments of the Preliminary Specification.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

My Argument, Part XXXIII

The power of shale reserves to overwhelm the commodity markets is impressive. We’ve experienced this phenomenon many times in natural gas and a few times in oil. We will continue to see this until such time as the industry and most specifically the producers adopt some form of production discipline. The only discipline that can save the industry at this point is the production allocation methodology People, Ideas & Objects Preliminary Specifications decentralized production model and price maker strategy provide. Without that we will continue in this free-for-all, everyone loses scenario that has been the case throughout this first phase of shales existence. The commercialization of shale is the question. Can it be done? The technology now exists and is prolific, its power grows with each iteration of the boom and bust. Production discipline based on our production allocation methodology is necessary, but how is it implemented within the industry?

We use two simple tools in which to ensure that the industry implements production discipline through adoption of the Preliminary Specification. The first is greed and the second one is greed. People, Ideas & Objects provide oil and gas producers with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Maybe you’ve heard of our value proposition. If a producer is faced with full production at 100,000 barrels which generates a loss of $2 per barrel, or producing 80,000 barrels which produces a profit of $5 per barrel, what is in their best interest? With the decentralized production model the producer is able to scale up and down their production profile based on the price of the commodities and the cost of each individual property. If the property can’t make a profit at the current price it is shut-in until such time it can be reworked and put back into profitable production. The costs of the producer at 100,000 boe / day are different than what the costs are at 80,000 barrels per day. What the Preliminary Specifications decentralized production model has done is turned all of the producers costs into variable costs. Including actual overhead.

If the price of the commodity should drop precipitously to the point where only 10,000 boe / day is profitable then the producer changes their production profile on that basis. Yet they remain profitable due to the fact that their royalties, operations and overhead costs have all dropped to zero on the shut-in production and only incur those costs on 10,000 boe / day.

The second simple tool that we use in motivating the producer to shut-in their unprofitable production and obtain the production discipline that is necessary in the North American marketplace is as follows. Earnings are what drive the value of the shares of the producers. The better the earnings, the better the stock’s performance and the happier the investors. Happy investors means they would issue new capital and raise the money to expand their profitable operations. If a producer today were to begin offering profitable operations to their shareholders. In a marketplace riddled with financial carcasses from overproduction and oversupply do you think they would have a future?

There certainly will be violators of the production discipline of only producing profitable production. The motivation to cheat is well documented through the difficulties that OPEC experienced in the 1980’s and 1990’s. However, those producers may have higher revenue streams as a result of cheating, their actual profits will be lower than if they shut-in their unprofitable production. There profitable properties are being diluted by their unprofitable properties. As producers operations are today. Leading them to perform poorly in front of their shareholders and the market in general. These types of producers will be clearly evident in the marketplace. Their financial statements will be inconsistent with those of the rest of the industry. Whereas an industry that has attained production discipline will have each and every producer producing profitable production. The difficulty or the challenge in the industry, as it is today, is to increase your production profile over last year. In the future it will be necessary to increase it profitably. That won’t be a feature of spending money like a drunken sailor, and as a result, the pretenders will be weeded out by the contenders.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here.