It Was a Cold Winter Wasn't It
I have stated repeatedly that the industry operates on the basis of the two human emotions of fear and greed. Fear of the bank manager calling the loan when gas prices are low. And greed when the gas prices show some strength as they had been. We will see which emotion is the operational mode when the fall in natural gas prices begins and the market has sorted out the cold winter of 2013 and 2014.
If we look at the past five years of pricing information we see a fundamental change in the pricing structure of natural gas. Gas has traditionally been priced in the range of approximately 10:1 to oil. This recognizing the differences on a heating value basis. As a result of shale, this range has ballooned to over 23:1 on average over the past five years. A fundamental breakdown in the manner of natural gas pricing. It is this breakdown in the pricing that will not be resolved in the term of one cold winter. It is this breakdown in natural gas pricing that requires producers to adopt a new business model to bring pricing back in line with the traditional heating value basis of the commodity.
The average price of natural gas for the past five years has been $3.77 / MBTU in the North American marketplace. If we were fair and reasonable about our claim as to the amount of opportunity costs that the Preliminary Specification provided to the oil and gas industry we should make that claim based on the past five years. Then we can factor in the positive effects of the cold winters and remove any negative bias in the number. We will continue to use the industry cost factor of $6.70 / MBTU as the threshold to profits. And in doing so we find that, on average, the total opportunity costs for the past five years would total $380 billion U.S. And I believe that is a fairer representation of the value of the Preliminary Specification and the decentralized production model.
If we are going to be as ridiculous as to think that one cold winter is going to solve the natural gas pricing problems. I am going to promote the decentralized production model as providing that value. Producers need to think what it is that they are doing. They are wasting good resources and capital while they dither. They have forgone ⅓ of a trillion dollars without even thinking whether it is a concern or not. This is why the bureaucracy has to be removed from the scene and sent down the river. Their way is too destructive to continue.
The Preliminary Specification and the decentralized production model provide the oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. It does this through an innovative business model that uses the Joint Operating Committee as the key organizational construct. What we do is we strip down the prototypical producer to the C class executives, the earth science and engineering resources, some land and legal, and some support staff. The remainder of the producers resources are reorganized into service providers that are focused on a process or subprocess and use specialization and the division of labor to provide their clients, the industry, with the administration and accounting capabilities.
When a producer determines that a property is not profitable, they will shut that property in until it can be produced profitably through some innovation or higher commodity prices. As a result none of the service providers in the industry will be charging the Joint Operating Committee for any of the administrative or accounting services for that property, as there was no activity generating any work for the service provider and hence no billing for services. As a result the property records a null operation, no profit but also no loss, the reserves are held for a time when they can be produced profitably and the commodity is held from the marketplace keeping a floor on the commodity prices.
This is a far more effective plan than going to Church on Sunday’s and praying for another cold winter. $380 billion is a reasonable amount to assign to the decentralized production model as that is how long the pricing structure has collapsed as a result of the shale gas effects. The only solution to the shale gas effects, in the long run, is a new business model that deals with overproduction. That is what People, Ideas & Objects decentralized production model does. It provides the industry with a means to allocate production based on profitability. And is the only reasonable method to use. Some might think the Preliminary Specifications key drawback is that it also eliminates the bureaucracy. And it does. However, I feel that is a feature.
The Preliminary Specification provides the oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don't forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here.