International Energy Agency 2008 report.

The BBC is reporting the results of the International Energy Agency 2008 report contains a warning derived from the implications of the current credit crisis on investment in oil and gas,  and hence future production deliverables.

IEA is declaring the era of cheap oil is over. The cheaper prices we are experiencing today are attributable to the market meltdown as the world consumption of energy continues to tank. No one has any quality information as to the extent of the decline in demand, and as such is assuming the worst scenario and prices are collapsing. This is a temporary situation that may last for the full term of the markets meltdown, which may be the next five years.

The lack of investment is cited by the report as the reasons behind the warning. The geological aspects of peak oil, or declining production due to lack of reserves, is not the issue that the IEA is warning about. It is the lack of investment by the industry to ensure the market supply of energy is maintained. I would tend to agree with these assumptions that the lack of investment is a more dire and serious problem then peak oil.

This project does not have the financial resources to pay for the full report. However, the BBC coverage is providing us with the scope of the warning and the material information in the IEA's report.

But, they point out, field by field, declines in oil production are accelerating and more money will be needed in research and development to extract the oil there is.

While world oil supply will rise, the report's authors predict that massive investments in energy infrastructure will be needed - an eye-watering $26 trillion dollars up to 2030.

A significant amount of this money - $8.4 trillion - will need to be spent on oil and gas exploration and development.

Big numbers. I sarcastically assume that the structured hierarchy will be able to provide the industry with the appropriate organizational structure to 2030. It seems ridiculous to me to throw this type of money at the problem on the same basis as we have relied on in the past. Doing the same thing and expecting different results will be insane. The bureaucracy will fail, I would have 100% concurrence from those in the oil and gas industry and energy consumers in general. We need to begin the process of developing the software and building the organizations and systems necessary to undertake this critical task. A critical task that may materially affect our way and quality of life if we are not successful.

I suggest we develop the People, Ideas & Objects application based on the vision provided in the Draft Specification, please join me here.

Technorati Tags: People's IEA Energy Geology Peak-Oil

Times like these calls for...

In most business' the amount that management sell their products at is higher then its costs. In oil and gas we would only dream of such a concept as price management. In the Draft Specification I have included a price management capability on a fully automated basis.

The problem comes down to the designation of one producer as the operator. The operator has every motivation to keep the wells and fields producing to their fullest extent at all times. This is as a result of beliefs of competitive drainage, and the bank expecting their investment to perform. The fact of the matter is that the operator does not have the authority to shut in any production without the consent of the partners.

Recall that today, the Joint Operating Committee (JOC) meets on a relatively infrequent time frame and the majority of the reporting is standard fare statements and data. Any production volume reduction is not possible without the consent of the producers who hold x% as determined in the Operating Procedure.

Fast forward now to the day in which the People, Ideas & Objects system has been built and is commercially available. It is fair to assume that the volatility in the commodity prices remain and the variance in price is in the realm of + / - 20%, and somewhat determined by political factors and seasonality. This would make the majority of the production either very profitable, marginal or create a loss situation.

With the People, Ideas & Objects system we will have the ability to calculate the costs on a "live basis" based on the contributions of the partners involved in the JOC. This is the key change factor that enables the producers to use an algorithm to move production up or down based on the commodity prices and the actual costs of the operation. If at any time the required percentage of voting partners determine that the costs exceed the price received, production would be scaled back to 50% of the flow rate. If the loss exceeds 10% then another 50% of production would be reduced to the point where the production could be scaled back to the level that the partnership are satisfied the optimal reserves production and prices are optimized.

These operations are dependent on one factor, the collective decision of the producers representing the JOC. This is the type of capability that would be made available in People, Ideas & Objects. The standard bureaucracy can not make the decisions in fast enough time frames to make the decision valid. By the time the decision would be made, the prices may have risen dramatically just at the time the wells were being choked back.

After the decision from the JOC has been made. And this decision is based on the producers vote and desire to optimize the value of the reserves. This decision is therefore somewhat automatic in that each producer will be able to input their specific criteria that they would expect the changes in production to occur. The commodity prices fall below what the calculated actual costs are and if the production became marginal, the wells production would be reduced to the 50% I am using in this example. The prices subsequently, because their is a lack of production available for the consumer, increase and then the well can increase its production on any increment the JOC may have deemed appropriate for the reserves and their cost factors.

The ability to calculate the costs, determine the market prices, and the ability to slow the rate of production through telemetry. Are the technologies that are being implemented in this application. Please review the Technical Vision and specifically the IPv6 component. Other times during further price changes, the system would provide the opportunity to increase production for higher prices as well.

The interface to this capability would be the browser of those that are present virtually in the JOC. And I have suggested that these people are the actual oil and gas producer / investor / owners of the property. Imputing a reduction in the separation between management and investors is something that can be, and probably will occur in this current financial market meltdown.

Now I know that their are contractual commitments made to the firms that gather, deliver and market the commodities. The nomination process is how they monitor their business and these people will need to be involved in the decisions that are made at the JOC. That they have the right to demand gas production meet certain annual volumes could be accommodated by recognizing this price management capability and implementing it into their operation as well. I don't foresee an issue here, if there is it may be a simple matter that the producer declares Force majeure to reflect the operation is no longer commercial at current prices.

Irrespective of the ability to have these types of operations conducted I know two things. The bureaucracies are too slow to accommodate any price induced change in production. And the industry has to take responsibility for the prices that they need to realize. As we move the industry from a price taker to a price maker, the optimal use of the reserves and our endowment of oil and gas will be optimized, not only for the producer but also the energy consumer. This is achieved through the generally higher prices that will be realized, and hence the more financial resources that will be available for exploration and bringing on the more difficult production.

Please join me here.

Technorati Tags: People's Specification Ideas Capabilities

Canadian Natural Resources Questionable Financial Statements.

Here we go again, making representations that are not true. First of all CNRL's Third Quarter 2008 financial statements are designed to mislead so that reputable names like Forbes get the actual numbers wrong. This is intentional on the managements behalf and is a material issue in my opinion.

All one needs to do is look at page 17, 20, 21, 25, 40 of their financial statements and the "unaudited" revenues are qualified in the management discussion. Note (2) is appended to each instance of "Sales Price" and they have the following quote.

(2) Net of transportation and blending costs and excluding risk management activities.

So its, net of transportation and blending costs. And does not include risk management activities. Even written grammatically it leads the reader to confusion.

The problem comes down to the fact that the firm did not realize those sales prices. They hedged their production on a go forward basis. The real "market" prices for the commodities were what the firm sold them at, however they need to be discounted based on what the firm sold their production forward at.

This is how material of a misstatement this activity is.
    Reported Revenues = $4.583 billion.
    Risk(y) Management Activities = $1.715 billion (B as in billion)
    Real Revenues = $2.868 billion.

This is how the firm is able to report that earnings are $2.835 billion, and cash flow is $1.677 billion. Which doesn't make any sense does it. Particularly when the Changes in cash for the three months is a drain of $8 million. (M as in million).

On page 52, under Risk management, they come clean with the goods with the following comment.

The resulting fair value estimates may not necessarily be indicative of the amounts that could be realized or settled in a current market transaction and these differences may be material.

Why would a firm do these types of things. I think it is reflected in their third quarter announcement that they are reducing some of their capital expenditures. They stated that as a result of royalty changes in Alberta they were dropping their expenditures by 46%. This only shows that they have no money. Everything is being diverted to make sure that Horizon gets started. Well I predicted that Horizon start up was not going to happen in my post of August 25, 2008. And the prompting of my prediction was that the firm was $26 billion in debt with a $3.2 billion working capital deficiency and the...

Specifically I think that financial capital is in a state of seizure that is unlike anything we may have seen in the past. The impact of this credit crisis will be limited to those institutions that are involved in granting financial capital and those that need it. If you need financial capital don't bother knocking on the door, you won't know what the response will be.

That's correct the looming credit crisis did come, and I have to say that I underestimated it's size by a substantial margin. On page 59 I also find this tidbit interesting.

(2) Net expenditures for the Horizon Project also include capitalized interest and stock-based compensation.

Reflecting that the management have been reading some people's blogs! (Hi there.) And to be honest, making it to the top of the Piggies list in July 2008 must have been embarrassing. So why would they not hide these costs in their capital expenditures? I never would have thought that capitalized stock based compensation was legitimate!

On page 39 one could also discover that there are some legal troubles brewing with the contractors at the Horizon project.

The Company is defendant and plaintiff in a number of legal actions that arise in the normal course of business. In addition, the Company is subject to certain contractor construction claims related to the Horizon Project. The Company believes that any liabilities that might arise pertaining to any such matters would not have a material effect on its consolidated financial position.

I'll bet not, big project, big contracts, big contractors, nah that won't be material at all. Let me go out on a limb here and say that I think the project is in the middle of the process of being forced to close by the firms inability to pay the contractor.

I say we bring on Phase II of the market meltdown and clean these guys out, (oops these guys are already out of the money in their stock options), sorry folks I didn't mean to rub salt in those gaping wounds. Lets instead say, take them out of business. Take them out of their misery and let them get honest jobs. A sort of management rehabilitation exercise. I would suggest that it's 11:59 for this firm. And as a result most, if not all of management should will take the Charley Fisher (Former CEO of Nexen, another Piggie) route to redemption and quit.

Technorati Tags: People's Pig Management Failure

IBM CEO Sam Palmisano

We are in interesting times. That is what makes this project and the possibilities of what this community could do, so breath taking. I recently wrote why I felt the governments should be stepping up and funding some of the software development projects that will enable the global economy to perform at the level of expectation of our collective society.

Well it appears that I am not alone in that thought. IBM CEO Sam Palmisano delivered a speech to the Council of Foreign Relations yesterday. Essentially he has said the same things that I have noted in this blog. Also citing the work of President Eisenhower in building the U.S. Interstate. The New York Times article and the text of the speech should be read by everyone.

We have a job to do. And this will not be done without the efforts of those that belong to this community. From the point of view of an obscure idea on how to manage oil and gas assets more innovatively, this is a healthy sized community. One that is familiar with the ideas and concepts as they have been put forward in this blog. Now is the time to aggressively increase our communities size. Please join me here, and if you know of some other people who could help out, please send them the URL to this blog and encourage them to consider a role here as well.

Technorati Tags: People's Ideas Funding Innovation

For the next 20 years.

The title of this entry will take you to a McKinsey article, number 40 in the series, entitled "Why Baby Boomers Will Need to Work Longer". Seem they think there are some holes in some people's retirement plans, and as a result, we all will be working a bit longer then we thought. These are McKinsey's words, I'm only the messenger.

I can't think of anything better to be doing then building this software and its never ending improvements. 20 years is the time frame that Professor Carlota Perez has placed for the Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) based upswing. We can accomplish a lot in that time. And when put in its long term context the job does not seem that daunting. In 20 years I'll be 70 and now might be a good time to consider what McKinsey says. By the way, 50 is the new 30.

Focusing on short term goals provides the sense of urgency to get things done. We, especially me, need to step back from that short term point of view for a minute, and put the context of making this software over the next 20 years, not 20 months.

What we can do with the technology is unlimited in its application. When we consider the Draft Specification, and how it naturally fits with the majority of processes, functionality and culture of the oil and gas industry. The generic aspects will be easy to implement, that is easier then SAP, Oracle or IBM.

What I look forward to is the unique and undefined ways that people will come up with for new ideas on how to analyze data, implement processes and enable the oil and gas producer to advance the sciences and innovation they depend upon. And most important of all make the industry as profitable as it possibly can. That is what this IT project is about, that is what is possible and that is what we are going to be doing here.

So join me here, and lets spend the next 20 years in making this industry the most profitable that it can be. Participate in the development of this application. Build your service businesses based on the Intellectual Property that is developed here, apply it to the oil and gas producers, and prepare for that retirement that McKinsey suggests needs some attention. Join me here.

Technorati Tags: People's McKinsey Perez Science Innovation Development

The U.S. Election

It's early yet, but it looks like it is a clear win for President Elect Barack Obama. I hope that the U.S. press corps is happy with their selection, and are able to continue the strong spin they have been able to put on this very light-weight president. It should be clear that I have not drank the Obama koolaid. What is aggravating about this situation is that the direction that the U.S. is taking is totally against its history.

Hope and change are great things that all people should aspire to. And that is the Obama message. Nothing more, and there can't be much less. I see two possible scenarios for Obama. One he'll go back on all his promises and govern responsibly, (the Bill Clinton role) or maintain his integrity with the American people and run the country into the ground. We'll soon see which road he picks and as a result of his zeal for the White House, where he would say and do anything to win over a voter, he now has to deal with the responsibility of governing.

The press can't help him there. Governing is the tough part. Where tough decisions are made. Some of those decisions will actually make people unhappy. There is no voting present as the president. One thing that might keep President Obama from making any decisions is the do nothing Congress of Nancy Pelosi and the lunatic Harry Reid in the senate. That the U.S. has put the democrats in power in the house, the senate and the presidency is the American nightmare.

I have found the press coverage of the last presidency to be as wanting as the sales job on Obama. I think President George W. Bush was a great president, primarily and almost exclusively because of his leadership. That's what is needed in these tough times. Leadership on the war, the economy, and the world. Obama may find the herding of cats in Europe too be to his liking. I suspect he'll be spending most of his time making sure everyone gets heard. Nonetheless leadership is not a personality or popularity contest, and president Bush never wavered from what he believed in. We will see how long it takes for the press and their democratic troika to fall out of favor. Implementing a strategy of class warfare in an election is great, until the day you actually win the election, but I don't suspect anyone in the Obama camp has thought of that yet.

Technorati Tags: People's Leadership

Miss-allocated capital.

How did we get ourselves into this economic situation. Professor Perez suggests this a result of long term economic cycles. This will be the fifth "turning" that has happened in the last 237 years. We can see in each of these that the past methods of economic growth and prosperity are no longer able to carry the load of the economy on their own. This appears to be as a result of the inability to invest wisely in making the economy more efficient. And I would suggest that the old and tired bureaucracy, a 20th century innovation, is primarily responsible.

The new Information & Communication Technologies (ICT) provide new ways of organizational efficiency. The rebuilding of industries to make the necessary changes is the scope of the current economic crisis. The damages to the old and tired organizations is so comprehensive in these turnings that rebuilding makes them necessary. We have a particularly critical situation in this turning that we had not faced before. The globalized and highly sophisticated economy based on Adam Smith's theory of specialization and division of labor. We physically can't self organize anymore. 

By miss-allocating capital, firms have not increased the base of productive assets in the economy. Instead of reaping continued returns from each years investment, we see our real earnings decline from neglect and no new revenues being generated. As a result the majority of the capital in the past 10 years has been spent on consumers non-productive needs. Purchasing bigger houses and renovating them took on a heightened importance in the economy. Those that have purchased homes at these high prices have only valued the size of their mortgages.

A mindset that the government will "fix it" I think will fade after the election today. The government knows the size of the problem and are aware that one of the most competitive advantages of the American people is their ability to pick themselves up and start again. This characteristic is the key to why the American economy is the most powerful in the world. And will continue to be. When as I noted in yesterday's post Volvo lost 99.6% of their unit orders of heavy trucks, and the Baltic Dry Index had fallen by 90%. It is clear to see that no goods are moving in the world economy right now. So it no longer becomes a credit crisis but is a major economic event that will affect the entire world. The governments are powerless to resolve even these two symptoms.

The lives that we have led for the past ten years will be changed fundamentally. The time we spend in a depressive economic state is dependent on us as individuals. Picking things up brick by brick and stick by stick is the only manner in which we are going to get ourselves out of these problems. It will be tough but we need to begin today. What ever becomes of the oil and gas industry it will need new systems to organize the people in the productive and critical energy production.

Professor Perez notes in a presentation;

For the next two decades at least, Information and Communication Technologies Industries and Services are not just an important industry, they are the key to competitiveness of any company, of any country, of any region. The shape of ICT infrastructure is the shape of the future.

Please, join me here.

Technorati Tags: People's Perez Failure Government

Software, and Eisenhower's Interstate.

President Eisenhower started the Interstate and Defense highway system in 1956. Many have credited this system with providing a solid foundation of which the U.S. economy has grown. In 2006 President Bush noted:

Today, 50 years after the Federal-Aid Highway Act of 1956 was signed, the Eisenhower Interstate System has made our society the most mobile in the world and contributed to the continuing growth of our economy.

Progressive governments have always had a role in developing the infrastructure for their societies to prosper. This has established a clear line of separation between what is a capital works and private activities.

Today our economies are globalized and very sophisticated. The dependency on others to provide for our needs has never been greater. Most people would agree that the ability to survive on their own for the long term is not a skill that has been developed. Our dependence on one another has never been so great, and therefore, fragile.

I've been harping on a theme in this blog since the Preliminary Research Report was published. Suggesting that SAP is the bureaucracy and the heightened role of software in the oil and gas industry. At times I have felt that this message is not well received, and I attribute that to the Y2K fiasco. Y2K has made software, and the people in the technology business, less influential. Leading to what I would suggest is a patent disregard for the value and significance of the technologies.

I am only realizing myself why this is the wrong point of view for society to have taken. So many of our organizations are failing that we are unable to achieve the reliability that we had achieved and expected in the last 50 years. On Wednesday, I showed up at my regular Starbucks and asked for my usual Venti Mild coffee. They said they were out of coffee. Dumbfounded I said what and struggled to keep myself from waking too quickly.

The concern that I have is these events are happening too frequently to be a random or isolated event. The systems that we have grown to expect are in a state of failure that will only expand as the organizations that we depend upon face one financial Tsunami after another. We need to address these points by building the systems that are replacements to the current systems that are failing. Otherwise we are faced with the prospect of using our survival skills to make due.

The sense of urgency in which we approach the development of our replacement systems is accelerated by the storm clouds on the horizon. On Bloomberg this weekend I saw this commentary that in the day to day of the past fifty years we could never have imagined. Entitled "The Shipping News Suggests World Economy is Toast". Chronicling the slowdown at Volvo, the second largest truck manufacturer in the world, in the third quarter. In the third quarter of 2007 Volvo received 41,970 heavy trucks orders . In 2008 the number was 155. The article also documents how the shipping industries Baltic Dry Index has collapsed. Rendering revenues for ships at 10% of normal. These events were probably triggered way back in August 2007 at the beginning of the market problems.

This is after the world has pumped unknown trillions of dollars to prop up the systems. We need to start concentrating on these types of issues. Or the food and other necessities on those ships will never make it to the consumers that need them. This is a warning sign of bad things to come and we need to heed the call.

The Eisenhower administration was not faced with these dire situations in 1956. Peace had broken out and the depression had subsided from immediate memory. The role of government is to ensure that the systems and infrastructure are able to meet the needs of its people. That is why the governments, in addition to providing liquidity and interest rate relief should fund industry supporting software development projects.

The role of government has been discussed many times in Professor Carlota Perez' papers. In her Strategy + Business "Thought Leader" interview she stated:

Government needs to be reinvented, using as much imagination as it took to design the welfare state in the first place. It all seems impossible now, but things always seem impossible at this point in the surge. p. 7

Governments need to be involved in the financing of software development projects such as People, Ideas & Objects. Providing the software that enables local economies to function may be the new dividing line between have and have not.

Because left to itself, it might not happen. Historical regularities are not a blueprint; they only indicate likelihood. We are at the crossroads right now. It is our responsibility to make sure that the enormous growth potential of the next golden age will not be lost. p. 7

We have a choice, be constrained by our current organizations and their poor performance, regress to manual systems and barbarianism, or build the software for tomorrow's organization today. Join me here.

Technorati Tags: People's Perez Call-to-Action Software Organization

Recommitting to Sun Microsystems.

Sun put out their third quarter earnings today. Those that have seen them probably share a concern that I have about the stability and durability of the company and its products. Clearly we are a Sun customer. Every product we are proposing to be used in the People, Ideas & Objects application modules is a Sun product first and foremost. I feel that they have "some skin in the game" and are therefore easily motivated to make their technology work, and they have.

We can't afford any of the finger pointing between vendors that we have seen in the past systems. That game is unacceptable to the users, developers, account managers, project managers and investors in the oil and gas industry. This expectation is also in line with the companies genetic makeup. They are an engineering firm, first and foremost with most of the technologies being far superior to the competitions. The only complaint I have of Sun is that I wish they would hire some people to take out the garbage. And what I mean by that is they have a tendency to solve the big problems and unfortunately the other less problematic tasks get overlooked. This is not a significant problem but one that shows up in their marketing at times.

Speaking of marketing, the open source initiatives the company has implemented are the reason that the risks in committing to them are minor. We would still be able to use and improve Java for our needs even if the companies receivers were hounding the researchers. Try that with an IBM or HP.

Jonathon Schwartz the President and CEO is an avid blogger and has been quoted in innovation in oil and gas many times. His blog post today provides a wealth of information that is more informal then the statutory reporting, and hence useful. Comments like these from Jonathon are the ones that make me feel that sticking with them carries little to no risk.

What went well within the quarter?

The biggest highlights were the performance of our Solaris based, chip multi-threading (CMT) systems, which again grew a whopping 80%, year over year. These systems leverage awareness of Solaris/Opensolaris and our outstanding ISV portfolio, and are driven by extreme energy
efficiency and virtualization - attributes we just multiplied with the launch of our newest CMT system: the T5440.

Simultaneously, our Open Storage systems also delivered a great quarter, up 150+% year over year. These systems, known by many as Thumpers, are amplified by the awareness of our open source ZFS file system, a technology at the heart of Sun's storage business. You'll be hearing more about Open Storage at a launch event we're holding on November 10th. If you're technical, and you want some hints about what we're about to unveil, click here.

And finally, most of our software business grew - including MySQL, Java, alongside Solaris, management and our virtualization products. As we've been saying, open source is a great distribution model - and it feeds a great revenue model.

Now, how is Software growing if you give everything away?

We make our software freely available to enable its distribution to the farthest reaches of the market - which we then monetize with commercial subscriptions and services, alongside optimized hardware systems (like Open Storage, above). We continue to reach customers that have already settled on our software - the process of selling to them is simplified by the fact they're already using our core products. And unlike most university students (who typically have more time than money), our paying customers view downtime or administrative complexity as more expensive than a software subscription (that is, they have more money
than time).

Thus, customers will pay, and continue to pay for access to enterprise grade features, along with mission critical support and maintenance - the Software business is both a license, subscription and services business.

To understand the total size and value of Software at Sun, you need to look at billings alongside our multi billion dollar support streams - remembering that a lot of our software is sold as a subscription service (remember, it's open source). In addition, you have to recognize that how much a "Systems Service" support contract is attributable to software is entirely subjective (we don't price them separately to customers). It's like asking how much revenue a mobile phone manufacturer should attribute to their operating system - you're not charged separately at the point of sale.

Wait, you make money off Java?

Yes, it's among the most profitable technology products at Sun - and improving. Java's one of the most popularly distributed pieces of Software on the internet, we distribute over a million Java run times a day to users across every OS and geography on PC's. That helps us reach a very broad community of users and, more importantly, developers. We have some exciting news coming up around these distribution volumes - and their value to us, and others.

Noting the importance of the customer in their product offerings...

What is Sun focusing on?

Strategically, we continue to focus on two core areas - creating the world's largest, and fastest growing developer communities - for whom we build the products, services and technologies on which they'll build their products and services. With brands like MySQL, Java and OpenSolaris - we measure and drive their adoption very aggressively.

And secondly, we deliver compelling commercial offers to those deploying applications - across a diversity of industries - through commercial subscription, services and optimized system products. That is, we sell data-center systems, software and services.

We're focused on today's customers with our current products and services, and tomorrow's customers with our investments in freely distributed software.

Operationally, we're focused on execution - in the field, in the labs, and on behalf of our shareholders. Innovation loves a crisis, even when the stock markets don't - and Sun's positioned very well to supply the platforms on which the next generation of clouds will be
built.

When I look at the firms offerings and see the stock's price, a mere $4.0 billion market cap, I shake my head. I think Sun has put themselves out in front of the competition. And I think that the firm is dedicated to doing the right things right, which makes them particularly difficult to understand. Open source and proprietary systems are the tools of building a strong firm for the long run. The problem for people investing in the firm is that the story doesn't necessarily fit into a $4.0 billion package. Given time the firm will be able to better articulate their story. This will only happen after the general public can better understand the difficult concepts that the firm operates with.

Technorati Tags: People's Sun Market Management Trends

The State of the Energy Industry.

Quotes from ASPO-USA.com

The price of oil and natural gas have both tanked as a result of the market meltdown. What is most impressive about this changing marketplace is its speed. The rapid decent has caused the commodities to be brought down with the rest of the market. For oil and gas that spells more trouble down the road. What we lose in terms of capacity to conduct operations may turn out to be substantial. The further we get behind the natural decline curve, the harder it is to reclaim lost positions.

I continue to believe one day within the next five to ten years we will see oil at $600.00 / barrel. When demand does return, the product lag may be severe with investors committing to long term projects on much much longer lead times. The Canadian oil sands will be seen as the white elephant that it is, with most projects being scaled back in order to mitigate the losses.

This market is much more dire then I suspected. Professor Perez suggests the turning is necessary to institute the changes between the old economy and the new economy. What we forget is the reality of the situation when we are in it. What I suspect will happen is the stock markets to drop more in the next two years. The liquidity crisis is contained and the markets will ease into a steady decline. Now the tough bit comes. Choosing who stays and who goes. The solvency of companies in all industries will be as brutal a drop as we have seen in this liquidity drop.

Canadian Natural Resource Ltd will be announcing their third quarter results on November 6th. This may be the end of the firm as we know it, I can't even see how they've been able to make payroll this month. There will be the need to address the credit crunch and their Mickey Mouse approach to financing. For the firm to make money will be as a result of the valuation of mark to market coming on September 30, a time when energy prices were lower, therefore lowering their unrealized loss on commodity sales. The point will be made very clear to them that they can't finance a $3.2 billion working capital deficiency and $26 billion in total debt. I am sure the Horizon project is sinking beyond the horizon of what is possible. The ability to have this project propped up is next to impossible. CNRL is insolvent and needs to be shut down.

The ability to have a partner come in and take over the remaining development will be difficult. The heavy oil plant is generally an overall strategy of the firm, companies need to dedicate natural gas for fuel and condensate for diluent. A company coming in can't create this situation and as such getting into the Horizon plant will be difficult.

Nonetheless the following quotations are from the ASPO USA weekly bulletin. The first item is very disconcerting in that I am not aware of any attempt to deal with the difficulty mentioned, the retirement of the human resource in the industry. We know that the retirement of the brain trust is going to happen in the next five years. Weather this market meltdown stops many from retiring is too optimistic to suggest. This problem must be dealt with, and in the Draft Specification I have proposed that building redundant capabilities in each company is the source of the problem and its ultimate solution. The producers need to pool their capabilities in order to mitigate this problem. Pool them on the basis of their interests in the JOC. Using the Military Command & Control metaphor to provide the governance mechanisms that the producers need.

Despite falling costs for steel and other materials, the oil and gas industry again finds itself confronting a shortage of people with the skills and experience to lead new developments. If efforts to plug the skills gap don't succeed, senior industry executives say oil companies' ability to tap new and challenging hydrocarbon resources fast enough to meet demand may have already have reached its limit. (10/23, #17)

The speed and ability of the industry is in question, imagine that, someone should have suggested a new organizational structure for the industry to follow. Please excuse my sarcasm, I really can't help myself.

This next article / quotation is from Jim Gray who had built up a strong natural gas company that is now buried somewhere in Connoco Phillips. He and his partner, John Majors were able to solve some difficult geological problems in the late 1980's building up a firm by the name of Canadian Hunter. Here he suggests there is more at stake then just the money issues that are in the news headlines.

“I’m strongly of the opinion that we’re on the cusp of a global liquid fuels crisis. The forthcoming energy crisis, should it develop, could result in economic, political and social stresses, and turmoil on a scale not experienced for half a century.”
-- Jim Gray, former CEO of Canadian Hunter Exploration

As the Canadian industry moved towards its ultimate strategy of "me too" and we have 10 or so heavy oil projects. The rest of the industry has waned substantially. Natural gas production is down 12% and as our former Governor General stated, Canadian conventional oil production is in steep decline as well.

Ed Schreyer in the Q&A, Ed noted that tar sands are now 50% of Canadian oil supply, as conventional production is declining steeply. With the current financial crisis and very high capital costs for tar sands development, turbulent times are coming for the oil & gas industry in Canada.

So here we are faced with an impossible situation in an impossible financial meltdown. What will these boy geniuses think of to make this problem workable. Fund this development? Not on your life. They want nothing to do with working for a living.

The funding has to come from the two previously identified sources. The disgruntled shareholders who are fed up with the management and can see the vision as it is layed out in the Draft Specification. And the various governments who have royalty regimes in place in oil and gas producing regions. And are able to see that society is too complicated for Hayek's Spontaneous Order to occur. And realize that the "new" economy after this meltdown has had all its fun, needs to have the software built first before we can reorganize based on specialization and define a new division of labor. Please join me here.

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