Monday, May 21, 2007

The life and times of Humpty Dumpty

We all know what happened to old Humpty after his fall, all the Kings horseman and all the Kings men... I think today we have an excellent business example of what the nursery rhyme taught us. The example company is Chrysler. Recall in my thesis I noted that Chrysler experienced a strange depreciation of their engineering capability. I said the following then;

"The need to clarify that holding the JOC accountable is not, and should not be, construed as a capitulation of the innovation process and its inherent benefits to the four winds. A study was undertaken at Chrysler to determine why the changes to “teams” were successful in product development, as reflected in their cab forward design, yet the overall engineering and technical capability of the company declined. The Chrysler study reflects that the accountability of the JOC (or team) needs to be augmented by an internal management system that provides an overall focus and direction to the innovations. Management needs to create and guide the internal innovative science and engineering capability that is unique and a key competitive advantage."
Were the "Synergies" that Mercedes sought in the merger with Chrysler an attempt to source and resurrect Chrysler's overall engineering capability? We know Mercedes saw these synergies as the key to the mergers value creation in their 1998 $36 billion purchase of Chrysler. However, did all the Kings horses and men (Mercedes) soon realize they could not put the engineering capability back together again? Selling the firm for $7 Billion (although we don't know what stays and what goes) seems to indicate that there is something fairly seriously wrong with Humpty (Chrysler).

Irrespective of the validity of this possibility, is there a lesson to be learned here regarding the current capability in oil and gas and the potential move to the Joint Operating Committee? Is it possible that during this transition the capacity to function from an industrial engineering capability is somehow lost? I don't think so, for a few reasons. First the industry is showing symptomatic failures at every turn. In the past two weeks we have seen Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. loose control of the building of their tank farm at Horizon, their heavy oil plant. With the lose of life in the second incident being averted, we see these types of failures everywhere. I also see the inability of the industry to capitalize on the higher oil and gas prices as a failure to respond to the market's demands. The oil and gas prices just seem to keep climbing, with no response from industry.

Secondly, I see a fundamental misunderstanding of the supply structure of the energy industry. It's not about the supply. The demand dynamic we are now dealing with has its origins in a world energy supply that catered to predominantly Japan, Europe and the U.S. or 750 million consumers. Now with India and China competing we have 3.15 billion consumers, or 4.2 times the demand for energy. I attribute this inability to identify the competitive demand landscape to a myopic focus on supply that was the industries focus while there were surplus barrels of production available. Now the industry has not switched, in my opinion, and don't have the ability to switch to the demand satisfaction of the equation under the current bureaucratic organizational structure.

In summary I would suggest the risks associated with losing an advanced engineering and scientific capability within the oil and gas industry is limited. For the reasons cited and the history of the industry over the past 25 years. The last quarter century has been a survival game. Living off assets that were innovated on from the perspective of exploitation. This capability will be needed and expanded upon, but what is needed now is for the industry to increase their scientific and engineering capability in the exploration and development areas as well. An area I suggest where little has been done in the past quarter century. The offshore drilling, the Arctic, the Tar Sands and areas that were too risky before the prices rewarded the larger risk profiles.

I also think that the industry having access to the Research Module in this proposed application will be critical to developing the new exploration requirements and at least maintain the exploitation capability. The Research Module will contain the explicit knowledge of the firm, with links to partners, consultants, academics and supplier capabilities. Within this mix will be much of the leading edge thinking in the academic community and the applied project processes the company uses to discover the new techniques, procedures and policies. The more that the Research Module is pursued the greater level of Intellectual Property that the firm will have access too. This will also provide the majority of the industries scientists and engineers to develop their ideas and monetize their intellectual property through their rights of copyright, patent and to a lesser extent trademarks. For that is the stated benefit of Intellectual Property, and particularly, copyright. The ability to copyright the idea is earned through the act of publication. Therefore society as a whole has access on the ideas within the marketplace for others to expand upon and benefit from. What the Research Module will do primarily is provide a forum to capture this knowledge on a global basis and provide a means of transaction processing and cost measurement to the companies, vendors, academics and suppliers who use it. Note, I will be writing more on this important module in the proposed application in the near future.

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Sunday, May 13, 2007

Modularity on Google Video

"Aspect Oriented Programming: Radical Research in Modularity."

Gregor Kiczales, Professor of Computer Science at the University of British Columbia.

Professor Kiczales does an excellent job in making this presentation (click on the title of this entry for the video). He hints at his past experience throughout the video, and this experience includes leading the Aspect Oriented Programming (AOP) development at Xerox PARC. This is a highly technical video of aspect oriented programming in Java. This is a key technology for this system's developments, and if you have a desire to learn these topics (recommended) this is a good video.

Much of object oriented programming is defining the objects or classes that interact with each other. The net result is an overall hierarchy of your code. In order to invoke one class from one area of the code to the other may be difficult due to the recognition of the hierarchy. (Casting up the hierarchy, over, and then down to the class that you want.) Aspects maintain this hierarchy but allow the developer to "crosscut' the hierarchical structure as if it were modular.

One of the key components of Java is the ability to use different aspects. How these different aspects are implemented in oil and gas is very common in a design such as we have proposed in this system. Not to get into too many of the components of Java code, I want to point out that this video is entitled "Radical Research in Modularity". A key aspect of the system as designed with the research that we have done with Professor Richard Langlois and applied here. Professor Kiczales makes the following points that are critical to the understanding, purpose and value of aspects in programming. This discussion begins around the 50 minute mark (50:10) and carries on to the end.
"Modularity has a cost, the cost being sometimes you get an indirection, and its only worth paying this cost if you get something back. What your getting back here is a couple of things. One thing is;"
The Raw Benefit of Modularity, which is in some sense, I could ship point (cut) without display update."
"Second an ability to reason about the structure now, and this is provided by aspect orientation."
And then later on, at (55:25) Professor Kiczales says
"What can I modularize now, that I couldn't modularize before."
The last point that I wanted to make was Professor Kiczales did point to a text of "Baldwin and Clark" that we were prompted to review by Professor Langlois. Kiczales also has some very good papers that are available on his website if readers wanted to follow through on this topic. Hopefully reviewing this video and a little research in the area of aspect and object oriented programming will begin to reflect on the value of the modularity being discussed on this blog and elsewhere.

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Wednesday, May 09, 2007

McKinsey Enterprise Software Customer Survey

I participated in a McKinsey study a while back and the results of that survey are now being published. (Sorry no link, the survey hasn't been released yet, email me if you would like a copy.) The topic of the survey was "Enterprise Software Customer", was sponsored by McKinsey & Company and the Sand Hill Group. The survey was completed by 475 senior IT and business executives. The objective of the survey was to;

"determine how software budget levels will change, who will control the spending, what industry trends will most impact their company in the near term, and what role innovation plays in their decision making."
and
"The results draw a picture of continually increasing software budgets, a shift to more decentralized purchase decision with increased roles for the business side in purchasing decisions, and the increasing importance of software innovation that respondents predict will come from small vendors."
Music to my ears, looking at the details of the result of the survey.

Software will account for an increasing portion of IT budgets.

McKinsey notes software accounts for 31% of spending which is expected to grow to 36% of IT costs. No change in the composition of that spending is expected.

The majority of software purchase decisions are still made centrally, although line of business buying is expected to increase.

The survey shows there may be some change in the way that software budgets are controlled. Moving from a centralized model to include business leaders and end users having a greater say.

Innovation and Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) are top of mind issues for software customers.

Respondents noted that "SOA's" were expected to be the top pick at 23% and "Software on New Devices" would total 20%. Other new trends that were noted is the Open Source Software movement.

In another question regarding "which of a list of trends would most impact their business" Software Industry Innovation claimed top spot at 33%, Software as a Service at 21% and Web Services / SOA 18%.

Product Innovation scored highest when asked "where the software industry most needed to improve, our respondents again pulled product innovation into the top slot, ranking it number one with 30% of responses. Followed closely by ease of use and customer service in the second and third spots. Curiously, "Cost" slipped in the rankings "with only 14% of respondents ranking cost as their top issue for improvement", and "48% of respondents omitting this from their top three areas". The study notes "While price will certainly continue to be a factor in purchase decisions, business customers seem to be placing a greater premium on the value that the software industry can deliver in innovative new ways."

We are still early in this software innovation wave with considerable product innovation, business model innovation, and process innovation yet to come.

"The vast majority of respondents clearly think the best innovation is yet to come. Fifty-Five percent of respondents reported they still expect significant new technology innovation to come, and another 22 percent saw the industry near the peak of technology innovation with only business model and process innovations still ahead of us."

and

"We polled our respondents to understand what type of software innovation they were looking for. Across the board buyers want more innovation, citing all of the various types of product, business model, and process innovation as important."

and

"We also inquired about the speed with which respondents were adopting various new software business models. The results showed a great degree of enthusiasm for business model innovation, with respondents predicting that more than 40 percent of their software budgets may be spent in alternative business models over the next 2 years (subscription, transaction, advertising, or another format.) Even more striking in analyzing the fraction of respondents that plan to at least try each of the proposed alternative business models a whopping 80 percent plan some subscription on demand spend, 60 percent plan some transaction based spend and 33 percent plan spend funded by advertising. This broad willingness to experiment indicates alternative business models have hit the mainstream and software vendors of all types and sizes need to ensure their level of business model innovation matches the level of product innovation."

Few customers expect to see innovation coming from large software vendors.

When asked where the innovation likely to come from, 59% of respondent's pointed to the community of small software vendors. With only 19% expected to come from the largest software vendors.

From my point of view I can't be happier with these responses. I have worked on this project as the better model and now the business community is beginning to follow. I can not think of a more timely opportunity for the oil and gas industry to get on with the development of this project. Its scope is too large for someone to come along and throw a usable software application on the table that everyone can use. It has to contain the users and the customers involvement in order for it to be functional. The energy industry can not expect the venture capital people to step up and fund this. By doing so the venture capital would eliminate the key ingredient, the user involvement from the mix.

All in all a very loud call to action.

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Tuesday, May 08, 2007

Where we're at, Part II

In reviewing the recent posts of Professor Langlois' works, I find there are many points of great interest. Modularity is a critical component of the development environment of Java. Dr. James Gosling, the founder of Java, has put together an extremely powerful and safe environment in which we can develop these modular applications. One point that I should have made in those entries is the logical application of the Military Command & Control Structure (MCCS).

MCCS has its own label to aggregate all of the postings in this blog. It is an important concept of using the Joint Operating Committee (JOC) and I would suggest a review of the posts to gain a strong understanding of the principles that I have proposed. The principle is that a means of command and control is necessary to replace the hierarchical command and control that is otherwise lost in specifically recognizing the JOC. By recognizing the JOC there are many opportunities to accelerate the performance of a producer. By pooling the joint human and other resources, and making them fully available to the Joint Account, virtually, the performance of the work being done by the JOC will increase. The work being the planning and execution of the drilling, completing, building of gathering and facilities. To have the JOC populated by the members seconded (permanently) to the JOC and operating in a manner consistent with the Military analogy of command and control. Not only the people who are actively representing the owners of the JOC, but the suppliers and vendors that are usually the boots on the ground in implementing the plan. This enhanced collaboration would provide a collective knowledge base and would be able to mitigate any issues as quickly as is possible. It should also, in an almost natural way, provide the documentation and transaction processing as direct fall-outs of the decisions and actions of those active JOC's.

Modularity demands the Military Styled Command & Control Structure. The loose coupling that modularity in the organization, and in the systems, requires a strong bond to ensure that it is operating as expected. This bond is the MCCS. In periods of high growth and rapid change modularity needs the support of the MCCS.

Most importantly we have addressed the scope of this application with the analogy that Langlois uses in architecting these systems. The industry would not hire "two interior decorators" to design and implement 1/2 of a room. Systems, and systems design need to have a more holistic approach. Modules help to define exactly where the user will find what it is that they are looking for. Some of the modules reside in the exclusive domain of the firm, such as the Research Module, and some reside exclusively in the market domain, such as the Petroleum Lease Marketplace Module.

I am recreating the table that I produced after review of some of Langlois' works. This makes the division between the market and the firm as I foresee the JOC being employed. Various elements of the JOC are assigned the responsibility of the market and in other areas, such as research, are assigned the primary domain of the firm.

ConstructMarketFirm
Joint Operating CommitteePs
Military Styled Command and ControlsP
Transaction CostssP
Production CostsPs
InnovationPs
Routine, compliance and accountabilitysP
ResearchsP
DevelopmentPs
Financial FrameworkPs
Legal FrameworkPs
Cultural FrameworkPs
Operational Decision Making FrameworkPs

P = Primary
s = secondary

So if we take a moment and define some of the modular architecture of this system.
  • Partnership Accounting Module,
  • Petroleum Lease Marketplace,
  • Human & Supplier Resource Marketplace,
  • Financial Resource Marketplace,
  • Governance & Compliance Module, (a.k.a. Military Command & Control Structure)
  • Research Module
These module classifications enable one to begin to see the value of modular thinking. Langlois noted Hayek's comment;
"Abstract symbols and rules can provide a visible information structure that allows individuals to operate effectively on the basis of their more concrete (and hidden) information." p. 16
Those who are within the oil and gas industry can clearly see and determine where each part of their understanding of the industry would fall under. The beginnings of seeing the "hidden" information is already beginning to bear fruit, just with these modules classifications. It is very clear to me where I could find a specific issue, information or opportunity in the appropriate module. This "hidden" data and information is a very powerful concept. These six modules will become the core of the system we are building here. If there are any other modules that you might think of, please comment on it.

Recall a salient point of Langlois regarding private property;
"There is also a flip side. Ownership may not only insulate one from certain kinds of unforeseen change, it may also enable one to generate radical change." p. 25
I read this as being innovation, where the innovation is being generated in the modular architecture that I have laid out? And this is the point, it is no where specifically but innovation is everywhere. The innovations may come from anyone using any of the modules. Innovation is not something that can be defined as a process. It needs however, to be facilitated through the organizational construct that allows the innovators to apply their craft.

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Wednesday, May 02, 2007

Mission possible?

In this FastCompany article written by J.J. Brazil, a Pulitzer Prize winner, the necessary organizational transition of the FBI is well documented. I intimated the difficulty of the changes that I have proposed in my last article reviewing Professor Langlois' paper. Change within oil and gas is the biggest issue we face in terms of the move to the Joint Operating Committee (JOC). What they are attempting to do at the FBI is completely change the Bureau. That they have the fortitude to deal with these changes in not a question, it will be done. And if the FBI can change as radically as is proposed, this industry, the oil and gas industry, can do it as well. There is no doubt in my mind, and here is why. Billed as possibly the "toughest, most important change effort of our time" the FBI has had to consider some serious questions regarding the September 11, 2001 attacks.

"More than five years after the 9/11 attacks spurred a top to bottom redesign of its mission and culture, the FBI is still battling to change itself - to adapt to the 21st century world of technology and terrorism. It's not just a matter of installing computers, which in any case has proven far from simple. The FBI must address the way its people are hired, managed and trained. It has to fix the way they communicate and the way decisions are made. It has to remedy a balky, hierarchical structure that sometimes thwarts local action."
Later in this article the author notes that the perspective of the Bureau has changed from chasing the crook, to finding the foreign terrorist before he acts. In an era of high technology the FBI is in the stone age when it comes to its technology use. At the time of the 9/11 attacks the FBI were still using non-networked x386 computers. Today is not much better.
"Making change, Kotter observes, comes down to this: understanding the awesome power of tradition. "Leaders underestimate it, and they don't find enough ways to bar the old culture from seeping into the new," Kotter says. "The bigger the organization and the older the organization, the tougher it is."
Thankfully we have a problem of a substantially different scope. Although the size of the FBI's and this systems are in the same league, the issues are almost exactly reverse. In energy we are trying to tie together what until now have been two disparate organizations that barely recognize each other. The hierarchy and the Joint Operating Committee. And move the recognition of how the business operates to the JOC. One that would place the 5 frameworks, the cultural, financial, legal, operational decision making and compliance together. This project from an organizational point of view is a unifying change, not a disruptive change. Although I would agree that the oil and gas industries current hierarchies will find this disruptive, the changes will be surprisingly easy as the employees find more efficient alternative ways of completing their work through this system.

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Tuesday, May 01, 2007

Patent Changes

The Supreme Court has made two important decisions in the area of U.S. Patents. (Read the New York Times article by clicking on the title of this entry.) The application of U.S. Patent Law is enforceable only in the United States. Apparently many people were thinking the U.S. Patent was pertinent to other jurisdictions in assessing fees and determining damages. The second decision was the more interesting decision and it pertains to the definition of prior art.

In the past few years, the issuance of software patents has become a bit of a joke. Microsoft and other companies have been filing patents for the most blatant and obvious software advances. The cost of filing a patent escalated and the burden of being awarded a patent went to those with the most money. Now a process and a reasonable standard are in place to challenge many of these patents on the basis of prior art and obviousness. There will be many companies that have been awarded patents that will now have them revoked.

The patent troll is most definitely out of business. Filing for patents on what was prior art, then without making anything new or truly innovative, went after the company that developed the idea first and did not think to file a patent. These trolls were usually successful. Under the old rules they were easily able to be awarded a cease and desist order on the original developer. These types of transactions are now over thankfully and in the area of software patents, hopefully it will make that category extinct. Software Patents are a nuisance and most importantly not necessary. Copyright law can enforce the software code easier then the patents could.

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Monday, April 30, 2007

Transition of the generations.

Sun Microsystems have posted on their Sun Executive Boardroom, information that details issues around the Boombers commencing their retirement in five years. As always, click on the title for the article. This is a very interesting article and one that certainly applies to the energy industry. Essentially what it appears to me is a small window of opportunity for the four generations, the Boombers, Gen X, Gen Y and Millennial's to resolve how the industries that are currently managed by the Boombers will get handed over. There are needless to say many problems ahead. That I would point to technology to help is probably the smallest surprise in this entry.

Wow, only one paragraph, didn't think I could do it!

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Sunday, April 29, 2007

McKinsey on the Environment

McKinsey consulting have prepared an economic summary of the relative costs and opportunities to address the "Global Warming" issue. This study is a global look at the situation and what the different methods will have in terms of success and costs of each method to the overall economy.

Two things I notice in the article is the size of the problem from the point of view of China's and the rest of the third worlds production of CO2. It is difficult to understand how there could be any progress made without those countries actively participating in CO2 reductions. In the Kyoto protocol China and the third world countries are now in compliance, and will be well into the future, without any changes. As these economies expand they may make the "Global Warming Crisis" into a real issue.

The second item that I noted is the cost, if McKinsey's calculations are correct, is less then the amount of insurance. Calculating the cost of insurance, excluding life insurance, the cost to the economy in 2030 is 3.3% of global GDP. Whereas the costs of climate change abatement totals only 0.6% of Global GDP, or 500 billion euros. If that is the cost, then what is the concern? And this last question needs to be questioned, I think.

You may be able to tell that I am skeptic about the impact of CO2. I need to be convinced that the globe is rising in temperature directly as a result of CO2 production. 500 billion euros is a lot of money to waste. It seems odd to me that the temperature on Mars has also increased lately, however, I don't think there is any human involvement in their atmospheres changes. What I am concerned about is we waste time and energy pursuing the wrong factors. Is there not natural phenomenon that can account for this. I would also suggest if you frame each weather oddity as evidence of global warming each night on every news channel around the world, then the distorted view of the climate change people will only be reinforced. How much of the CO2 is attributable to the spectacular volcanoes we have seen in the last 30 years? Humans don't necessarily cause everything on earth.

Much can also be done about the environment through effective and intelligent programs. In the 1980's we were subject to acid rain that was going to wipe out our forests. Maybe we should go back to creating acid rain so that the forests will be eliminated. The CO2 released by forest fires is very large. Prior to that, the ice age was coming back in the 1960's. I think that McKinsey have done a very good job at attempting to quantify the costs of global warming. Based on the understanding that we have today. And I don't doubt that global warming may be a fad that will abate as the acid rain and ice age did.

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Thursday, April 26, 2007

Modularity in Technology, Organization and Society


This is a follow on to the posting of Professor Langlois' recent article "Organizing the Electronic Century". This article was written in August 1999 and contains several valuable ideas. Let me point out first that the topic is something I have discussed in this blog before. Going back to 1984's Dr. Anthony Giddens Constitution of Society" ISBN 0520057287 he notes that people society and organizations move together or there is failure. And Professor Wanda Orlikowski's Model of Structuration notes that technology is part of society. To read the details of these theories in this context please see me previous post. This post may be the longest post that I have made. I would encourage you to read it in its entirety, there are many valuable points and ideas that are documented here.

Introduction
What I have proposed in this project is a system that is designed to operate an industry. Not one that is limited to operate just within a company. The Joint Operating Committee (JOC) by definition dictates this different perspective in order to operate between its member firms. This is a system in which the user is a consultant, an employee of a firm, or member of one the many service companies operating within the industry. In other words anyone who is employed in the energy industry. A tough prospect, and lets not forget a system that implements changes in the ways of life of most of these people mentioned. How could this possibly function as intended? The scope of the application notes the interactions between partners are as dynamic as the industry itself.

I have noted here a technological vision that includes Wireless, IPv6, Java and Asynchronous Process Management. These technologies not only allow the industry to achieve these overall system objectives, they guarantee it. And that is the inherent threat of ignoring these technologies. Although technical risk is part of any software development, the risks associated to this project are mitigated through many new and effective tools, like modularity. Modularity is an important component in dealing with change and complexity and the difficulties they involve.

Professor Richard N. Langlois writes about the elements of "Modularity" with the organization as the primary focus. I will take these theories, apply them to my understanding of oil and gas, and then layer the technologies and how they could be involved in mitigating these risks.

"Modularity is a very general set of principles for managing complexity. By breaking up a complex system into discrete pieces - which can then communicate with one another only through standardized interfaces within a standardized architecture - one can eliminate what would otherwise be an unmanageable spaghetti tangle of systemic interconnections." p. 1
"What is new is the application of the idea of modularity not only to technological design but also to organizational design. Sanchez and Mahoney (1996) go so far as to assert that modularity in the design of products leads to - or at least ought to lead to modularity in the design of the organizations that produce such products." p. 1
Modular design of products can lead to the modular design of organizations is highly consistent with my "SAP is the Bureaucracy" thinking. Systems support, and therefore, define organizational structures. This comment by Langlois seems to intimate the same result of the alignment of systems.
"Why are some (modular) social units governed by the architecture of the organization and some governed by the larger architecture of the market?" p. 2
And lastly Langlois asks why modularity is sometimes seen in the market, and sometimes within the firm. Since we are seeking the boundaries of the firm, we are interested in Modularity in both the market and the firm. Langlois provides an excellent example of modularity's benefits in the following watch maker analogy.

Modularity and Complexity
"Tempus and Hora both make complicated watch-systems from myriad parts, and both are interrupted frequently in their work. Tempus does not design his watches as decomposable systems, so every time he is interrupted and forced to set aside his work, the entire unfinished assembly falls to pieces. By contrast, Hora first builds stable sub-assemblies that he can then put together in hierarchic fashion into larger stable sub-assemblies. Thus, when Hora is interrupted, only the last unfinished sub-assembly falls apart, preserving most of his earlier work. In an evolutionary selection environment, such stability would be be rewarded with survival (Simon 1962 [1981, pp. 200 - 205])." p. 4
"In the end, however, what makes Tempus's unfinished watches unstable is not the sheer number of distinct parts involved. Rather, it is the interdependency among the parts in his design that cause the watches to fall apart." p. 4
"In organizational and social systems - and perhaps even in mechanical ones as well - it is possible to think of interdependency and interaction among the parts as a matter of information transmission or communication." p. 5
In the system description I have proposed, I have described the Petroleum Lease Marketplace, or PLM. The PLM is a Database of the Crown and Freehold leases that are available and issued in a certain geographical region. The PLM will provide access to the leases ownership, royalty obligation and other information that is publicly available. A producer looking for a new partner, lease, or deal could engage other producers within the PLM and have their business relationships recognized in this virtual marketplace. A marketplace where like minded producers, investors and land holders meet to exchange ideas and build relationships that generate oil and gas deals and activity. From within the PLM the details of the prospect would be populated to those producers that shared some common interests. Ultimately, in time these collaborations could lead to a meeting of the minds and facilitate the inevitable agreement, operating and accounting procedures. These items that were negotiated, and the attributes would contribute to forming the initial data elements that will go on to drive other modules within the overall Genesys system.

How can modularity help in this example? Langlois states interdependency and standards are critical components of modularity. With these PLM based transactions we are able to review standard data elements, standard operating and accounting procedures, standards in how the governments issue information. We can also see how these interactions could be carried out. Each producer enters the PLM with only a desire to expand the drilling and production prospects of his firm. The flexibility and modularity of the PLM provides the producers with the system that will document and provide the support necessary to facilitate and complete the transactions as they are conceived by the disparate participants. Once there, the producers are afforded a variety of opportunities that can be codified and begin the documentation process of their deal. Ultimately in a fully operational system, these data elements would provide the necessary transaction processing I have detailed in the Partnership Accounting module.

Langlois now turns to the technology to explain how the modularity of the system can be captured and managed. His use of hardware and software provide strong analogies, and I am concerned that I may hop down a technological bunny trail if I am not careful. Therefore let me note the points that Langlois states, and point the reader to the Java Programming Language for the implementation of this modularity. It is a fundamental underlying concept of the programming language and I will write another specific post to deal with Langlois modularity theories and the technologies.
"At one point, Brooks briefly considers a "radical" alternative proposed by D.L. Parnas, whose "thesis is that the programmer is most effective if shielded from, rather than exposed to the details of construction of system parts other than his own" (Brooks 1975, p. 78). This radical alternative is in fact the strategy of seeking decomposability in the design of the development project and of the underlying software. Parnas (1972) is the inventor of the notion of information hiding, a key concept in the modern object-oriented [Java] approach to computer programming. Programmers had long understood the importance of modularity, that is, of breaking programs into manageable pieces." (Parnas 1972, p. 1056)." p. 6
"Recently, Baldwin and Clark (1997, p. 86) have drawn on similar ideas from computer science to formulate some general principles of modular systems design. The decomposition of a system into modules, they argue, should involve the partitioning of information into visible design rules and hidden design parameters. The visible design rules (or visible information consists of three parts. p. 7
  • An architecture specifies what modules will be part of the system and what their function will be.
  • Interfaces describe in detail how the modules will interact, including how they fit together and communicate.
  • And standards test a modules conformity to design rules and measure the modules performance relative to other modules.
These visible pieces of information need to be widely shared and communicated. But contrast, the hidden design parameters are encapsulated within the modules, and they need not (indeed, should not) be communicated beyond the boundaries of the module." p. 7
Design Processes

Is modularity good for all types of systems and developments? How about Oil and Gas in particular, with a high level of change and in demand as quickly as possible? Is this even a worthwhile objective of systems development? Or would the industry be better off to build a highly interconnected system? Here Langlois makes note of the following;
As usual, however, there is no free lunch. It turns out that modular systems are much more difficult to design than comparable interconnected systems. The designers of modular systems must know a great deal about the inner workings of the overall product or process in order to develop the visible design rules necessary to make the modules function as a whole. they have to specify those rules in advance. And while designs at the modular level are proceeding independently, it may seem that all is going well; problems with incomplete or imperfect modularization tend to appear only when the modules come together and work poorly as an integrated whole (Baldwin and Clark 1997, p. 86)." p. 8
"Under some circumstances, the benefits of modularization may not be worth the cost. For example, a system whose environment never changes may not have to worry much about modularization: Tempus will do as well as Hora if neither is ever interrupted. Systems that develop slowly in slowly changing environments may not acquire, or require, much modularity." p. 8
Makes a lot of sense to me. If I would be as bold to suggest this is also why the majority of the ERP software applications operating in oil and gas fail. Taking the entire industry from a scope and scale basis requires significant application development. The ability of the industry to integrate disparate modules form different vendors, and have them operational in the firm is a large task and difficult to do. The ability to mash these systems into one cohesive ERP style of application have been attempted many times and in many different ways before. The interconnectedness problems originating from the inability of the vendors to standardize on the requirements, data elements and processes. What the industry truly needs is a single vendor solution that addresses the scope and scale of the industry in a modular fashion. One that adopts the industry standards, such as those established through Public Producer Data Model (PPDM), Canadian Association of Petroleum Landman (CAPL), and Petroleum Accountants Society of Canada (PASC) and others. And through a dedicated solutions provider, such as what is discussed and proposed here in this blog, and focused around the JOC. Only then can these associated issues of interconnectedness vs. modularity be addressed.

Encapsulation boundaries.
"In a world of change, modularity is generally worth the costs. The real issue is normally not whether to be modular but how to be modular." p. 11
I can't think of a better reason to employ the one vendor focus, such as is described here. The multi vendor approach to building interconnected system in oil and gas has failed, in any manner of criteria. Langlois' analogy is precisely on point.
"We would think it odd indeed to assign two interior designers each half of a room (von Hippel 1990, p. 410). It makes a good deal more sense either to give each designer a whole room or to give up encapsulation entirely and let the two designers communicate extensively." p. 11
The traditional separation of Production Accounting from Financial Accounting modules by different software vendors is as laughable as the output from the two interior designers being assigned half of a room. One vendor pointing to the other vendors is the favorite game when problems arise. With the oil and gas industry being somewhat stable in terms of change, the vendor finger pointing was tolerable. Now with a dynamic demand rewarding the most innovative, change is the order of the day. How will this vendor strategy fair in this current and future environment?
"For example, the tasks in an innovative development project cannot be partitioned in advance, since knowledge is continually changing. In such a case, the modularization of the system (the development project) has to change continually; moreover the modularization at any point has to take into account the inevitability of re-modularization as learning takes place." p. 11
Social Institutions and Modularity.
Picking up again with the works of Giddens and Orlikowski structuration theory, and a model of technological structuration. What strikes me as being particularly on target here is the discussion around adaptability. Recall also that Sun Microsystems CEO Jonathon Schwartz has written on the positive attributes of adaptability.

Dr. Wanda Orlikowski built upon the Theory of Structuration when she defined her Model of Structuration for Technology. Dr. Orlikowski's model asserts that a fundamental component of society is technology, that technology provides a duality and therefore is a constraint or facilitator to successful advancement of society, people and organizations. Giddens and Orlikowski's background information are directly in line with what Langlois states in this section. It is with great interest of mine that Langlois seems to be of a similar mindset to what has been written in these documents.
"I now want to make the discussion more concrete by considering a particular kind of system; a society. My contention is that the theory of modular systems provides a useful way to look at the theory of social organization and to recast the classic debates in that literature." p. 14
Setting the societal foundations in a modular context makes clear to me the objectives of this research, and software development are attainable and the opportunities prolific. Not just from an individual point of view, but from one that is as broad as society itself. Langlois in this discussion also notes the contribution of externalities. Or economic benefits to society from industry actions.
"The set of design rules that guide social interaction are what we can generally call social institutions (Langlois 1986). These rules determine (among other things) the extent to which, and the way in which a society is a modular system. The desirability of modular design is a theme with a long history in the theory of social institutions. Adam Smith long ago proposed a decentralization scheme based on what he called "the obvious and simple system of natural liberty," by which he meant a system of private property regulated by common law and subject to minimal central administrative intervention. On the economic level, this approach would lead, he believed, to economic growth spurred by innovation, learning, and an ever increasing division of labor." pp. 14 - 15
Not only Langlois but Hayek and Smith wrote on this topic.
"More recently, Hayek argued for similar principles in terms that draw even more explicit on the theory of complex systems. Indeed, the benefits of information hiding lie at the base of Hayek's opposition to central planning, which he viewed as a cumbersome non-decomposable system ill-adapted to change. Because of the dispersed and often tacit character of the knowledge individuals must use, he argued, it is not only costly but ineffective to try to construct society as an intertwined system." p. 15

"if we can agree that the economic problem of society is mainly one of rapid adaptation to changes in the particular circumstances of time and place," he wrote, "it would seem to follow that the ultimate decisions must be left to the people who are familiar with these circumstances, who know directly of the relevant changes and of the resources immediately available to meet them. We cannot expect that this problem will be solved by first communicating all this knowledge to a central board which, after integrating all knowledge, issues its order. We must solve it by some form of decentralization" (Hayek 1945, p. 524)." p. 15
The work that we have done with Langlois has been very fruitful to date. We have been able to apply many of his theories to the determination of the boundaries of the firm and of the market, we have assigned roles within the price system of transaction costs and production costs respectively. All of which fully endorse the use of the Joint Operating Committee as the key organizational construct for the market. And there have been other benefits, now modularity provides a conceptual tie in to the technologies we use here. I believe the next quotation of Langlois puts into context the overall value of his research to the work being done through this blog and proposed software development project.
"What makes decentralization economically effective is the possibility of a standard interface that allows the modules to coordinate with one another without communicating large volumes of information. This interface is the price system. "The most significant fact about this system is the economy of knowledge with which it operates, or how little the individual participants need to know in order to be able to take the right action. In abbreviated form, by a kind of symbol, only the most essential information is passed on and passed on only to those concerned" (Hayek 1945, pp. 526 - 527)"" pp. 15 - 16
and
"Abstract symbols and rules can provide a visible information structure that allows individuals to operate effectively on the basis of their more concrete (and hidden) information." p. 16
Langlois now introduces the effect of property rights. I have asserted in the past the energy industry needs to refocus on new forms of competitive advantage. Specifically the inventory of oil and gas leases are the private property rights that entitle the producer to earn economic rents. In addition, the ability to employ the operational necessities of finding and producing oil and gas are the attributes that are most important to the innovative producer. How those operational necessities are employed innovatively is the producers value add that is not replicable from one producer to the other. Oil and gas leases and operational efficiencies form what I would call an energy innovation strategy, and I have not seen a more compelling, nor indeed, sensible strategy for oil and gas. Outside of these specific tasks of the producer, a less constrained view of how and where they can apply their knowledge most effectively are the benefits that are evident to me.

I have proposed that the go forward revenue stream (outside of the initial development needs) of this software project is an assessment of $X / boe for access and use of the system. If the assessment were $10 / boe / year then the costs to use this system for Encana Corporation (a 700,000 boe / day producer) would total $7 million to access and use the system for all their transactions. The definition of these systems is heavily dependent on the standards making bodies, and the demands of its users providing the direction, and use, of the system. These users being compensated for their time as either employees or independent workers of the innovative producer.
"But when the sphere of property are not well modularized - when property rights are absent, ambiguous, or ill defined - the initial assignment of property rights matter to efficiency. The symptoms of imperfect modularization came to be called transaction costs." p. 17
"Imperfect modularization came to be called transaction costs." Recall that inefficient use of transaction costs support the justification for the firm. This we have learned from Langlois. We have also learned that standards are a critical part of modular architecture, and now that poor property rights affect efficiency of the market particularly, and the firm. This last point being somewhat common sensible, however, from the viewpoint of an oil and gas producer there is no threat, ambiguity, or deficiency with the property rights they hold. This reinforces and promotes the concept of modularity that is sought through these writings in the market structure of the Joint Operating Committee.
"The economic benefits of carving out a protected sphere of authority fall into two broad categories, the concentration of rewards and costs more directly on each person responsible for them," and "comparative advantage effects of specialized applications of ... knowledge in control" (Alchian 1965 [1977, p. 140, emphasis original]). We might call these the incentive benefits and the division of knowledge benefits of property rights. Both are important, even if the first has attracted a disproportionate share of the attention of economists." p. 18
The processing of a "production cost" or market transaction has no substance or value to the oil and gas producer. It is inert, it is nothing, it is based on matter of fact principles that can, and will, never provide the holder with any sustainable competitive or strategic advantage. There is no interpretation, no analysis to determine the correct process, only application of the standards as defined in the agreements and understandings of the JOC. The producer can be provided with this market and firm based transaction processing service through the development of the software described in this blog. The firms "transaction" costs are exclusive to the specific producer, yet highly dependent on the actions of the market. Processing of "transaction costs" has no monetary, tangible, competitive or strategic value either.
New rights will emerge (or old rights will be altered), he argued, whenever exogenous conditions conspire to make the costs of modularization worthwhile. p. 19
With this last comment it is clear to me that the opportunity for the energy industry to offset the production and transaction cost processing burden to the market forces is the appropriate and timely solution to the problems that they are facing. Particularly when it comes to the difficult topic of innovation. Outsourcing is a term that poorly represents these concepts.

Modularity and Organization

The mechanisms that were used to aggregate the property rights of large corporations were the justification of the hierarchy over the past 100 years. It is the 100 years of its dominant form that has made possible the hierarchy. Now IT enables the means to more ideally place the boundaries of the firm at the optimal point, one that is consistent with Langlois theories. As I have indicated here before, the JOC is comprised of like minded producers who are motivated by their financial interest in the property. Achieving consensus is surprisingly not an issue.
"In the property rights tradition, the theory of the firm is simply an application of the theory of the coalescence of property rights. Although it is seldom clearly spelled out, the starting point for analysis is typically a world of completely modular atomistic production: each stage of production consists of an individual who owns the necessary physical capital (tools) and who coordinates his or her actions with other stages of production through arms-length transaction. Why is not all production carried out this way? Coase's (1937) famous answer is that their is a transaction cost to using the price mechanism. If transaction costs are the costs of a bad modularization, what can go wrong with the atomistic modularization?" pp. 22 - 23
What follows is a quotation that deals specifically with the joint ownership represented on the JOC. That in other industries there may have been leakage of externalities, oil and gas has had to deal with these issues since its inception, and have provided the JOC with the means, and importantly the standards, to deal with it.
"This formulation focuses on the incentive aspects of property, and it takes ownership to be equivalent to a claim on residual income (Foss and Foss 1998). Another view, originating as early as Coase (1937, pp. 391 - 392), sees ownership as involving not residual income streams but residual rights of control. Oliver Hart (1989) and his coauthors have lately championed this approach in a series of formal models. Because of uncertainty, no contract can foresee all possible contingencies. Thus there must be a residual right to make decisions in situations not covered by contract. That right is ownership, and ownership should be allocated to the party whose possession of it would maximize the joint surplus of production." pp. 23 - 24
The ownership interest within a property provides many of the attributes of a modular society. Specifically the owner of a property could be completely withdrawn from the operation of his property, and may involve himself in cashing the checks each month. Or, should the need arise, the sphere of influence over his property can be exercised. Langlois notes these rights are inherent in ownership.
"Frank Knight (1921) suggested that comparative advantage might arise if one party possesses the superior faculty of judgement (Langlois and Cosgel 1993). But, ceteris paribus, genuine uncertainty - the prospect of or need for radical change - may by itself call for a consolidation of ownership. Stephen Littlechild provides one example. p. 24
"If I am quite sure what kinds of actions my neighbour contemplates, I might be indifferent between his owning the field at the bottom of my garden and my owning it but renting it out for him to graze his horse in. But once I take into account that he may discover some new use for the field that I haven't yet though of, but would find objectionable, it will be in my interest to own the field so as to put the use of it under my own control. More generally, ownership of a resource reduces exposure to unexpected event. Property rights are a means of reducing uncertainty without needing to know precisely what the source or nature of the future concern will be. (Littlechild 1986, p. 35)" pp. 24 - 25
and
"There is also a flip side. Ownership may not only insulate one from certain kinds of unforeseen change, it may also enable one to generate radical change. I have tried to suggest on a number of occasions that concentrated ownership can overcome what I call the dynamic transaction costs of significant economic reorganization (Langlois 1992b). This is a motive for vertical integration little noticed in the literature." p. 25
This discussion strikes at the heart of the reason for this blog and the proposed software development. The energy industry employs assets that are highly specific, or asset specificity in economic terms. Many participants are involved in a project and all have the property right and title managed by a JOC. These interests are easily divisible with the ability to buy, sell or trade the interests on an open market. Little can be done without the consent of the majority ownership, the percentage of which is defined by the JOC. Other rights and obligations are detailed through the establishment of the JOC and then subsequently through additional agreements, AFE's, Mail Ballots etc. From my non-technical point of view, having change hoisted on the property has been usually welcomed. The major properties are in a constant state of change in order to optimize the resources. This would normally pose a challenge to the management of the property, however, I have to say it doesn't. The JOC is systemic throughout the industry on a global basis. We have all heard of company x getting our of country y for political reasons. This is how the industry operates.

So why is the industry in need of the Joint Operating Committee to be defined as the organizational construct? Because it isn't recognized in its appropriate manner within the software applications that are in use in the industry. The perspective of the ERP vendors is that the corporation needs to file tax returns, SEC requirements, local government legislation's and other statutory and regulatory requirements. The corporation has evolved to the point where the only thing they are managing is these processes. The participation in the JOC's is an engineering and geological focus that are not directly recognized within the organizations systems and procedures. To be specific, the JOC is the legal, the financial, the operational decision making, and cultural frameworks of the industry. These are what drive the business, not the tax and royalty legislation. If we moved the accountability framework and sub frameworks over with the JOC's frameworks, the alignment of these frameworks would enable, greater organizational speed from the Information Technologies that are available today, and greater innovativeness on the earth sciences and engineering fields.

From a modularity point of view, the properties that are owned by the corporation are neatly encapsulated within their own environment. One facility does not leak out any information to another facility that it should not. The staff of the producer are able to move about these modules where and when they are required. A producer would know their access to the areas of which they operate would limit their exposure. Modularity to me is not just a concept that can be implemented in the systems we develop. It is a concept that is applied universally throughout the domains of the industry.

Langlois has these points;
"Jensen and Meckling (1992) agree that the concept of ownership must involve not only the possession of decision rights but also the right to alienate those decision rights. Granting an individual both control and alienability is clearly a more complete modularization than granting control alone, since the owner with alienability needs to engage in less explicit coordination with others to use the asset effectively under all circumstances. In economic terms, it is alienability that solves both the problem of knowledge decentralization and the problem of incentives: the asset may be placed under the control of the person whose knowledge best equips him or her to use it, and alienability disciplines the owners use of the asset by making its value (to which the owner has a residual claim) measurable on a market." pp. 26 - 27
"This is the basic modularization of the market economy. It accords well with the modularization G. B. Richardson (1972) suggested in offering the concept of economic capabilities. By capabilities Richardson means "knowledge, experience, and skills" (1972, p. 888), a notion related to what Jensen and Meckling (1992) call "specific knowledge and to what Hayek (1945) called "knowledge of the particular circumstances of time and place." For the most part, Richardson argues, firms will tend to specialize in activities requiring similar capabilities, that is, "in activities for which their capabilities offer some comparative advantage" (Richardson 1972, p. 888)." p. 27
"So why don't we observe everywhere a perfectly atomistic modularization according to comparative advantage in capabilities - with no organizations of any significance, just workers wielding tools and trading in anonymous markets? We have already seem the outlines of several answers. The older property rights literature, we saw, would insist that the reason is externalities, notably the externalities of team work arising from the nature of the technology of production itself. The mainstream economics of organization is fixated on another possibility: because of highly specific assets, parties can threaten one another with pecuniary externalities ex post in a way that has real ex ante effects on efficiency (Klein, Crawford, and Alchian 1978; Williamson 1985). Richardson offers a somewhat different, and perhaps more fertile, alternative. Firms seek to specialize in activities for which their capabilities are similar: but production requires the coordination of complementary activities. Especially in a world of change, such coordination requires the transmission of information beyond what can be sent through the interface of the price system. As a consequence, qualitative coordination is necessary, and that need brings with it not only the organizational structure called the firm but also a variety of inter-firm relationships and interconnections as well." pp. 27 - 28
As I indicated in the pre-amble of this entry the theories of Giddens and Orlikowski were consistent with the theories of Langlois in this article. In my thesis I noted that SAP is the bureaucracy and that is generally agreed too. How the industry obtains these benefits being discussed here requires the industry to first develop the software to recognize the organizations that are necessary. I would also at this time note that the failure of industry to act in a prospective manner on developing software. Will leave their organizations susceptible to failure before they have alternatives in place. Whether this is a chaotic or orderly world will be left to the readers imagination.
"Whichever story one chooses, organization (in the broadest sense) arises as a non-modular response to the fact of, or the need for, interactions among the modules. Organization is always a de-modularization and repartitioning that severs the right of alienation from at least some of rights of decision. And, in all cases, the technology of production both causes and shapes the resulting no-modular interconnections." p. 28
Modularity, organization, and technology.
"Sanchez and Mahoney (1996) contend that products design organizations. In a sense, however, this is a variant on what the mainstream economics of organization has long believed: production processes design organizations. If the production process requires team production or calls for highly specific assets, a non-modular structure ("hierarchy") is in order; otherwise, a modular structure ("the market") is more appropriate." p. 28
The energy industry is a unique business. An industry that operates with the full cooperation of the other producers. Others producers are necessary to aggregate a land position, process production, or to meet regulatory requirements. As a result it has established a variety of non-profit organizations that define the operations and procedures. The JOC is the means for the industry to meet these requirements. If as Langlois and others say, "production processes design organizations" the JOC should be more involved in the day to day interactions of the producers. If we designate the scope of authority of the JOC as being the "market" and have the software developed to support this classification, it is clear in the writings of Giddens, Orlikowski and Langlois that the performance of the industry would change. For as the JOC is the legal, financial, operational decision making and cultural means of the industry.

Although I have not included much discussion regarding the technology and its role in defining modularity in the oil and gas industry. It is surprisingly close to the writings here of Langlois. Today it can generally be considered that the collaborative technologies are superior to the current methods of meetings, memo's, and snail mail. The business is the efficient discovery and production of hydrocarbons. It truly has nothing to do with the SEC, the Tax authorities or for that matter the shareholders. These are secondary to the primary role of the business. The focus should be on the primary responsibilities and let the secondary requirements flow from the actions of the former. The technology, as has been detailed here by Langlois, enables this.

I hopefully have also laid to rest the concept that the manner of this software development project does not provide any producer with a strategic advantage. The advantage is earned through the competitive and difficult process of acquiring land and establishing commercial hydrocarbons. Generic transaction processing is a requirement of the business, not a strategic or competitive advantage. It's ultimate role should be the deployment of the most efficient methods.

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Photo Courtesy Troels Myrup

Wednesday, April 25, 2007

Conservative environmental policy.

An announcement by the Canadian Federal Government on environmental policy was leaked, with few specifics, on how the country would achieve certain CO2 targets.

There will be more information coming on Thursday at which time I will post an update. I "hope" that the government does not assess industry as it is suspected of doing. The tax, if any, should be assessed on the consumer, not industry. Secondly the majority of the taxes should be focused on bringing the costs of Coal in line with Natural Gas.

The other interesting point was, the reduction in greenhouse gases was proposed at 150 million tonnes. In my previous posting, the one facility had injected 7 million tonnes over four years on a pilot project. Maybe the injection of CO2 as a miscible agent will provide the environmentalists with the means to solve this alleged problem. Therefore I would recommend the Federal government join the Alberta Government and provide incentives for the energy industry to act in this manner.

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Monday, April 23, 2007

Changes at Shell.

First off, I am a "Shell Brat", my father worked for Shell Canada for over 33 years and retired in 1982. I was also fortunate to work at Shell for two summers during my high school days in the 70's. During my first year I was helping out in the mail-room, and the second summer was spent washing dirt in their geological warehouse. Shell holds a special place in my mind and strongly influences my perception of the oil and gas industry. That is why it is with extreme disappointment regarding The Royal Dutch Shell group, who just purchased the outstanding shares of Shell Canada, have announced that the CEO of Shell Canada will be retiring and the new CEO will be the CEO in their Houston operation. The time when the decisions and understandings that Calgary may have had on Shell Canada will now cease to be a factor.

In my thesis that was the precursor to this blog. I suggested that if the producers were not willing to move toward a more innovative footing, the loss of their independence would be the result. That Shell is the first is disappointing, and I can not determine which producer would be next, nor can I provide any of the cause and effect analysis that proves my thinking. It would only seem reasonable with Houston's focus moving away from the Middle East, Russia and China, that Canada would lose its independence and stature, as Houston asserted its influence.

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Sunday, April 22, 2007

CO2 as a solution, not a problem.

In this article,the April 2007 Oil & Gas Network (Print Edition), "What's New in EOR Research" talks about the use of CO2 in Enhanced Oil Recovery schemes in Alberta. Each of the highlighted projects are taking advantage of an Alberta Government's CO2 Projects Royalty Credit Program. The participants include Apache, Devon, Penn West and Anadarko. The schemes use the EOR technology that has been learned by the energy industry over the past 20 years. Using pattern drilling to sweep the reserves to the production wells with a Water Alternating Gas (WAG) injection, sometimes horizontally as well. I found it interesting in the article that the producers could now justify this type of flooding with the higher oil prices. I did not realize CO2 injectants would be more costly then C2+. However the article states that the source of these injectants is primarily from the neighboring gas plants. And that the sources of CO2 would constrain the further development of these pilot projects. Another interesting element is the use of reserves that have been very prolific, yet difficult to find, areas like the Rainbow Lake pinnacle reefs and Nisku formation in Pembina. Another area where it is being tried is the Pembina Cardium Miscible Flood.

The injection of liquefied CO2 is a miscible agent that will also maintain pressure on the oil being driven to the producing wells. In the Weyburn area over 7 million tonnes of CO2 has been injected over the past 4 years. And unlike any other miscible flood where the miscible agents are expected to be recovered, the CO2 will be left in the ground permanently. If the energy industry is able to discern any value from CO2 injection, a given as far as I am concerned, and the Alberta Government continues to provide incentives to the industry to do so, we may have shortfalls in those green house gas supplies. If we used the 7 million tonnes of injectants as a guide how much human production of CO2 is offset?

Using the "Carbon Dioxide Calculator" we can determine that the atypical home heating and other associated demands produce of CO2. Using rather liberal values, and particularly 5 eight hour flights per year, I came up with 935 tonnes per household. Now in the past 4 years, 7 million tonnes of injected CO2 at the Weyburn facility essentially eliminated the annual production of 7,486 homes. If we extend the number of facilities that could use CO2 as a miscible agent, maybe these Kyoto targets are not necessary after all.

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Saturday, April 21, 2007

Eric Schmidt, Google CEO

There is an interesting and worthwhile video on YouTube of Google's CEO at the Web 2.0 conference. Within this video Dr. Schmidt says something very interesting that applies to the work being done around this blog.

"Collaboration is the 'killer app' for how communities work."
In economics one learns fairly early on that transportation, communications and financial resources are key ingredients of economic growth. Collaboration is a key technology of communication. If the energy industry is going to be able to grow, enhanced communications will be necessary.

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Friday, April 20, 2007

The Role of Networks in Organizational Change

McKinsey have published a very interesting article, (Premium Membership Required) regarding organizational change. Noting that "organizational charts mask the invisible networks that employees use to get things done." I think this may be right on target with respect to the Joint Operating Committee, what do you think?

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Tuesday, April 17, 2007

Organizing the Electronic Century

A very current working paper form Professor Richard N. Langlois.

March, 2007

This post is the first of two to reviews Professor Richard N. Langlois papers on modularity. In March 2007 he published a new working paper that adds value to the work that we previously reviewed. That work was used primarily to build the table that summarises the application of his theories to the oil and gas industry.

We have been reviewing and defining the boundaries of the firm between the market and the firm for the oil and gas producer. Discussing how the market could easily be deemed the Joint Operating Committee (JOC), and the division of tasks and obligations that are handled by either the JOC or the firm. The table provides a coherent and precise division of these roles and responsibilities. People with experience in the energy industry can see the manner in which this software could identify and support both the market and the firm. It is almost a natural division of the industry, a division that makes sense as to where this or that would best belong in the firm or in the market.

What these two new documents discuss is modularity, its benefits and difficulties. Modularity really isn't an option, its a necessity in today's marketplace. The ability to manage the scope and scale of activities involved with the human resources and speed of change, managing can't predict and prepare for all the tasks that need to be carried out. The market needs to anticipate the changes and provide the solutions to the firms as they are required. How the market does this is through the loose coupling of modularity.

Introduction

The introduction to this first document throws the topics of discussion out extremely well. The following paragraphs are direct quotations of the introduction. I have to admit that I am a bit of dupe when it comes to papers that start discussions around the revolutionary periods of business. Langlois notes however, that talk of whether industrial revolutions exist is only a "convenient container" for his narrative. I fundamentally believe the time today is best reflected in Professor Carlotta Perez' call that the installation period is over and the deployment period is upon us. We live in probably the most exciting business times imaginable. Nonetheless, how this deployment period is undertaken is directly in line with the theories of Langlois and he starts this introduction talking about the different perspectives of where we are in terms of the first second or third industrial revolution.
"Talk of a Third Industrial Revolution presupposes that there has been a Second. Alfred Chandler (2006, pp. 12) tells us that the Second Industrial Revolution began in the 1880's, when the railroad, steamships, electricity, and the telegraph and telephone called for the economies of scale and set in motion genuinely multinational enterprises (Chandler 1977, 1990). The revolutionary barricades were manned by a large number of integrated multi-divisional firms wielding a multiplicity of technologies. By 1930, that revolution was over, leaving behind the infrastructure of the Industrial Century - the twentieth century. As Chandler (2006, p. 48) reminds us, with what one suspects is a great deal of satisfaction, 98 of the 100 largest industrial enterprises in the U.S. in 1993 had been founded by the early 1930's." p. 1
Our review of Coase has been through the works of Langlois. In a series of slides, Langlois highlights the work of Coase and summarizes it with a graph on slide 11. This graph shows the optimal point of which the firm size is a result of a hybrid of efficiencies in the "Costs of administrative coordination" and "Costs of the price system." Coase has also noted that the size of the firm would or should be reduced if the efficiencies or "costs of organizing an extra transaction within the firm become equal to the costs of carrying out the same transaction by means of an exchange on the open market or the costs of organizing in another firm." Coase 1937, p.395. It is clear to me that the size of the firm has sought the "integrated multi-divisional" firm at the expense of what would more reasonably been organized, if it were possible.
"The Third Industrial Revolution, which Chandler tends to call the Electronic or Information Revolution, began just as its predecessor was ending. It would eventually generate the infrastructure for the Electronic Century now upon us. Unlike the Second Industrial Revolution, the Information Revolution bubbled up from a narrow set of technologies - the vacuum tube, the transistor, the integrated circuit, and the microprocessor - and thus involved a smaller set of players (Chandler 2001, p. 12) But the organizational outcome was identical, because it would be the same kind of large multi-divisional firms that would commercialize the scientific and technological ideas of the new century. As first movers, and occasionally fast followers, these firms developed an integrated knowledge base from which they could launch innovative products." p. 1
This brings up memories of what we have seen in the North American business landscape. Since the 1980's when these giant industrialized groups roamed the landscape. Made up of a variety of business that offered the investor diversification. The only case that probably exists today is GE and its associated and diverse business lines. The type of firm is now for all intents and purposes extinct. If we assume that these monoliths were the high point of the bureaucracy, the next 20 years may see the current form of "integrated multi-divisional" organizations follow the same path of extinction. What can a large firm provide that can't be done by an efficiently operating marketplace? Here Langlois takes steps to understand how these "integrated multi-divisional" firms can continue, and notes his opinion on the survival of these firms is different then mine.
Although a "supporting nexus" of smaller, more-specialized firms was crucial to the success of the overall industrial enterprise, it was the multi-divisional firms, not the web of specialists, who did the heavy lifting. So long as the pioneering firms employed virtuous strategy of related diversification and remained on the straight-and-narrow paths of learning the first movers had mapped out, those firms were able to enjoy economies of scale and scope and to become the perpetrators rather than the victims of creative destruction. But when the pioneers strayed from the path, and especially when they succumbed to the temptation of unrelated diversification, they stumbled and fell (Chandler 2001, 2006)" p. 2
and
"My approach will be to steer between - or rather to recombine elements from - these competing accounts of the Electronic Revolution. In accord with the "new economy" view, I will be sensitive to the ways in which changing technology and other factors have affected the nature, role, and scope of both the multi-divisional firm and the "supporting nexus." Indeed, I will concur in the view that the forces of the modern age have led to a widespread "de-verticalization" of production in this and other industries, although, as in previous work (Langlois 2003, 2004, 2007), I will locate the source of that phenomenon less in the specific demands of digital technology and the Internet than in the larger Smithian forces of specialization attendant on a growing economy, increasing globalization, and an expanding base of technological knowledge. At the same time, however, I will not consign the multi-divisional firm to the dustbin of history. I will attempt to tell a tale of the electronic industry that is fundamentally Chandlerian in character, as it will focus on the development of technological and economic capabilities and on the paths of learning in the industry." pp. 3 - 4
Capabilities and Architecture

I have written extensively in the past six months about capabilities. Mostly in regards to Langlois writings, but also of Professor Sydney Winters work published through the LEM Working Paper series. Capabilities and governance are two issues that go hand in hand. Here Lanlgois uses the contrast between an integral and modular architectures to help in relating the benefits of modularity within markets.
"Baldwin and Clark (2000, 2006) make the argument more formally when they suggest that a given set of innovative activities - of economic experiments - are more valuable in a market than in a (large multi-divisional) firm: the value of a portfolio of options in always greater than the value of an option on a portfolio." p. 5
"A complex systems product is underlain by an architecture: a set of parts and a way of fitting those parts together. An integral architecture is one in which the parts depend on one another in complex and often unpredictable ways: the system is a tangle of spaghetti. By contrast, a modular architecture is one that regularizes the dependencies among the parts, forcing them to interact only in relatively formalized and predictable ways (Lanlgois 2002b)" p. 6
"What can we learn form all this? The present-day theory of capabilities has much to say about paths of learning; but it does not prescribe that those path be trodden by large multi-divisional firms alone - or, for that matter, by small highly specialized ones. Rather, it provides a toolkit I will use in nailing together an account of how the infrastructure of the electronic century came to be organized." pp. 7 - 8
The energy industry is driven, in my opinion, by the needs of the regulatory environments that it operates. The SEC and Tax authorities, the environmental and local conservation groups that dictate certain behavior from the producers. This has left the focus of the business, from a business perspective, away from the operations. In addition, the ability of a CFO to stand in front of his shareholders and promise a 10% increase in production volumes next year, has very little influence on how or where those additional volumes will be generated. To discuss the operational increase in capabilities and capacities from an oil and gas point of view is the domain of the Joint Operating Committee. These decisions are made with all of the partners that are involved in the asset. And that asset may consist of just one well, or a field and plant that represent 10% of the countries productive capacity. The CFO will have influence on the desire to increase production, as long as it is the consensus of the JOC. From a strategic and tactical point of view the CFO's input is traditionally determined through the capital budgeting process. A powerful tool, but nonetheless one that does not provide the level of understanding and innovativeness that is possible to achieve. In other words the decision makers are so far removed from one another that the understanding of where the critical decisions are made is predominately not known in a large firm. Where an innovation has been created would fall into the same category.

What it is that I am proposing here is that the architecture of modularity which Lanlgois speaks of is facilitated through the "Electronic Century". Modularity is entirely consistent to the producers interest in the JOC. The number of JOC's that the firm may participate in is limited to the capital the shareholders have invested in the management of the firm. If modularity is to be sought and achieved in the marketplace, the JOC is the organizational construct and market focus. This is more then just me highlighting a self fulfilling prophecy, as Langlois writes more regarding this and his concepts of modularity. Taking into consideration the controversial comment that I had just made. Langlois notes the following in his analysis of the consumer electronics industry.
"Thus in radio it was not the case that an integrated path of learning within a large firm gave rise to innovation; it was rather that innovation, channeled within a particular structure of property rights, contained the path of learning within a single large firm." p. 16
My understanding of the energy industry leads me to believe this statement is correct. Innovation can occur if it is channeled within a structure of property rights, a.k.a. the JOC. How is it that the focus of the industry has removed itself so far from the operational area? Langlois addresses this in the following, and I would assert consolidation and limiting of General and Administrative costs within the producer over the past 20 years has led to the same outcome as Langlois example.
"Why? Chandler (2001) lays great stress on the strategic mistakes. RCA (and other integrated American firms) strayed from the virtuous strategy technological development and related diversification that would have maintained paths of learning on which they had originally embarked. Instead, they succumbed to the temptation of conglomerate diversification, thus ultimately destroying the integrated knowledge base on which success depended." p. 26
And in today's marketplace perspective;
"The strategy of massive unrelated diversification in this reading is merely the proximate cause rather that the ultimate cause. As Michael Jensen (1986) has taught us, unrelated diversification is one possible symptom of "free cash flow," corporate windfalls that allow managers to pursue their own interests and visions without the short run discipline of product markets and financial markets. Although it is not often remarked on, the hey day of the large American multi-divisional firm coincided with a period of relative economic isolation. The Depression, tariffs, and wars of the first half of the twentieth century constitute what economic historian now see as a massive collapse of nineteenth-century globalization (James 2001; Bordo, Talyor, and Williamson 2003). And, with the destruction of the German, Japanese, and other economies in World War II, that isolation continued for the better part of two decades. In a general sense, then, the post-war golden age of the large multi-divisional American firm was one in which competition was relatively relaxed by later globalized standard - and in which managers found themselves with sources of free cash flow. The resulting (relatively) slack environment not only encouraged diversification (as Chandler insists) but also reinforced the multi-divisional form itself, a form of which unrelated diversification is the logical if extreme extension, and arguably isolated that form from economic realities to which it was increasingly ill adapted (Langlois 2003, p. 37 - 371)." pp. 26 - 27
Convergence and conclusion.
Langlois focus has been on firms within the electronics and digital industries, companies such as RCA and IBM. His research has been over been several decades of time and provides sound advice for the environment that any industry finds itself in today. For the energy industry, these points that have been made resonate with the work that has been done and is proposed to be done in this blog and software development project. Langlois finishes off with a salient conclusion that is strong and valid for the oil and gas industry.
"What does all this imply? Paths of learning are not thoroughfares excavated by large multi-divisional firms with entourage in train. they have always been, and are perhaps increasingly, trails beaten out by a variety of specialists working in cooperation and competition. The Chandlerian model works well for producing system innovations in their early stages (television was a prime example) and occasionally for generating fundamental new ideas (like the transistor). But many if not most important development - from the vacuum tube to the planar process, from the radio to the personal computer - were the product of specialists within the network. (The digital computer was the product of a special kind of specialist, the university.) Moreover, by taking advantage of a range of capabilities far wider than the boundaries of what even the largest firm can encompass, a network of specialist suppliers and competitors is better able to exploit the value of a complex and potentially modular product architecture."

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