My Argument, Part XI

The trick for the current oil and gas producer will be to not read the prior two posts of this blog. There is nothing positive there for you, and I advise against reading them. And for that matter, if I were them, I’d probably skip reading this post as well. Don’t let anyone say I don’t play fair, I won’t have it.

The situation we detailed on Friday was that the business was untenable. BP’s Chief Economist noted that it would be in the best interest of the OPEC producers to produce what they have and provide the market at whatever price is offered for the next 32 years. With the abundance of supply on hand, stated as being double what is needed to 2050, those low cost producers would find that they would be profitable, but their margins would be slim. For high cost producers like those in North America, you’re out of business. That in essence was the message.

Monday we detailed the methodology behind accounting scandals, past and present. How the innocent were usually caught up in trying to do the right thing, being falsely accused and spending time in prison. Those that may have read the detailed histories of Worldcom and Enron may have seen how unfairly those companies were treated. That there are parallels to the oil and gas industry and People, Ideas & Objects hope that none of the bureaucrats in this industry are ever sent to prison. After all they were only doing what everyone else was doing. They were only competing within the industry and they didn’t know that it was wrong at the time. Give them a break.

Today, with those two posts in mind, we note the narrative in the industry is rainbows and unicorns. The times could not be better and the opportunities never so strong. If you as an investor bet your money, or is it invest your money, I can never remember anymore, you could win the biggest prize of all. Coming from Calgary I have to say that we’re probably better known for the scandals and scams then we are for any business success. We’ve seen them all. Back in the early 1990’s we had this Gold mining company named BreX. If you're interested you can catch Matthew McConaughey’s new movie Gold which is based on that story. What BreX did was find an unbelievable gold mine in Indonesia. It was only unbelievable because they were salting the samples that they sent to the lab to determine how much gold was held in reserve. The scam only fell apart when someone went back to the samples and found that the gold in the samples was placer gold. Which is gold that is only found in rivers, not mines.

Kind of feels like the 1990’s to me in ways. Looking behind the cheerleaders the producers are putting out in front of the investors is rather distracting. However, I have to admit effective. The show must go on. And it is. We spoke of the market capitalizations that my analysis over the holidays showed of the industry. That producers were very highly valued in comparison to their cash flow numbers. Those overvalued cash flow numbers, just like the overvalued earnings and assets. Those are financial performance over valuations. Here I’m talking about the price of the stock being overvalued on the order of three to four times. I suggested that this enabled positions to be liquidated and John Q. Public left holding the stock while it crashes and the company's officers skedaddle. With the earnings reports I’ve seen so far, I think this is highly probable.

Does anyone doubt that shale changed the business? What changes in the methods of operation have the producers undertaken to deal with shale? How have they made shale commercial? What plans do they have to rebuild the aging infrastructure? Deal with the big crew change? Or just move on in a manner that is viable? I haven’t seen anything. But when someone invites me into a dark room I generally run the other way. So they maybe talking amongst themselves about these things in that dark room and we’re just not aware of them. I’m sure that’s what’s going on.

The challenges and opportunities moving forward are the most significant in the industries history. Those were somewhat detailed in BP’s Chief Economists comments about double the supply of oil to 2050. Where’s the plan? What are we doing? I have proposed the Preliminary Specification and have been ostracized for it. Producers have done everything in their power to keep me quiet over the last decades. Why, am I screwing up the scam? Apparently so.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

My Argument, Part X

At the turn of this century we were blessed with a number of accounting scandals that made for interesting reading in the business papers. Two that captured the hearts and minds of everyone were companies by the name of Worldcom and Enron. Click on their names to be taken to the Wikipedia page of their rather checkered histories. These were public companies that were subject to annual audits by the likes of the first class accounting firms such as Pricewaterhousecoopers and Deloitte & Touche. At the time there was another premier audit firm by the name of Arthur Andersen who did the audit of Enron. When difficulties began with the company and questions began to be asked of the auditor, Arthur Andersen did what any prudent first class accounting firm would do. They shredded the Enron audit files. And that is why there is no Arthur Andersen in the marketplace today. There is however, one of the best advertisements ever.

To draw a parallel to our current troubles in oil and gas to those accounting scandals at the beginning of the century might be what people think I’m imputing. Let me be clear. There are strong parallels between the Worldcom and Enron accounting scandals and the systemic way that accounting has been done in oil and gas. The other day I detailed how the assets, earnings and cash flow of the producers are all overstated. Materially and for the past four decades. Using the SEC’s requirement that the value of the assets recorded on the balance sheet of the producer will not exceed the independently evaluated oil and gas reserves, times the current commodity price, at any time. This has led to all manner of recording of every conceivable cost as an asset on the balance sheet. Costs such as interest expense and overhead are systemically charged to property, plant and equipment. Once there, these costs never leave and will only move to the income statement after decades in some, and in most instances.

Although the SEC states that this is the accounting requirement. It does not provide license for each and every producer to reach that level, known as the ceiling test, each and every fiscal year. The value reached by recording the assets at just below the threshold of proven reserves times current prices. Is essentially saying that the assets are just slightly less than the entire future revenues of the producer. This being useless information, ridiculous and anyone with a brain in oil and gas knows that. Who has benefited as a result of the ability of these producers to overstate asset values, earnings, and cash flow? And where are Arthur Andersen’s competitors in applying some level of reasonableness to the process? Do they not have a stake in the credibility and integrity of the accounting information that is put out by an industry such as oil and gas? Or did Arthur Andersen establish the new standard?

I think we all heard that distinct sound of a paper shredder starting up. No worry we still have the .pdf’s. Earnings season has begun once again. If you compare Chesapeake to the history of Worldcom you’ll find that Chesapeake’s history is eerily similar, but far more advanced. Where Worldcom was forced into bankruptcy, Chesapeake was only beginning. Their current CEO states that they’ve never been in better financial position. Which is a statement that can’t be supported by any fact and I would advise him to be careful!

There is a mechanical methodology to accounting. That although you can massage the numbers in the short term for your benefit, there will be some commensurate pain that has to be realized in the future. Producers have avoided recognizing their costs for so long that they now have them being recognized at the wrong time and at the wrong velocity. What I have seen so far on the earnings front is making 2016 look like the worst year in oil and gas, not 2015. But still no one is acting responsibly. People, Ideas & Objects have given them every opportunity to correct their ways by implementing the Preliminary Specification, why haven’t they? Telling isn’t it. In the movie the Big Short the quote “Tell me the difference between stupid and criminal and I’ll have my brother in law arrested” is appropriate here. Producers will say that they had to compete. That everyone was doing it. Or they didn’t know. Bernie Ebbers the CEO of Worldcom and Jeffrey Skilling the CEO of Enron are spending the rest of their lives in prison for this kind of stupidity.

So here’s the big problem. That over reporting of earnings has created a rush of investment into the industry. That over investment has created overproduction, which on a real basis does not perform as economically as it is reported to be. This has been on the sustained basis of the past four decades. Now the industry must deal with these three major issues. No performance on their invested capital, overproduction, and the accounting scandal that has been perpetrated against the investors by the producers. Investors even have a name for this, they call it the roach motel, money goes in, nothing comes out. But let's be honest, the bureaucrats are happy.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

My Argument, Part IX

I think I found the triggering mechanism that makes people realize that the oil and gas industry is in crisis. It was stated on Wednesday by BP’s Chief Economist Spencer Dale in World Oil. Here’s the quote.

The world has enough oil reserves that can be extracted with current technologies to be able to meet demand two times over until 2050, Dale told reporters in London. As demand growth tapers, holders of these resources could potentially decide to produce sooner rather than later, he said.

Abundant Reserves

“Over the long run, there seems to be increasing incentive for those producers that hold lots of low-cost oil” to rethink the strategy of rationing production, Dale said. “The view that a barrel not be produced today, but produced tomorrow,” may become less compelling, he said.

This is the logic that producers have adopted in the marketplace today. We have so much oil and gas in reserves, just get it onto the market. Is this the wise and prudent strategy in which to approach this abundance of resources? No, it becomes a race to the bottom where everyone loses forever. If you could also defer the recognition of the capital costs of the producer in this capital intensive industry you could convince your investors that you were making money for a while. This could keep the treadmill of new and progressively more naive shareholders available to the producer firm. Keep them lined up and sell them a story that never comes true.

If the Saudi’s et al are realizing that the North American producers have so destroyed the commodity marketplaces that it makes no sense to hold reserves for tomorrow. Then the North American producers should congratulate themselves on completely destroying the industry. No one is going to touch this industry again, that is until 2050. This has to stop. There has to be a better way. The more logical and valuable way is to recognize the value that is inherent in each and every molecule of energy. That it is irreplaceable and should be cherished to ensure that it is not wasted. We have a responsibility to our own future to ensure that all energy is produced profitably from this point forward. And conversely, the largest consumer of oil and gas will be the most economically productive in terms of its GDP. Energy provides mechanical leverage over labor. We should seek to use energy in every application possible. The consumers value proposition of a barrel of oil at $50 or $150 is undeniably irreplaceable and invaluable.

We therefore need to recognize the crisis that is the oil and gas industry. Production, as a result of what the BP economist is saying, consists of a race to the bottom. There is no understanding or appreciation of value of the commodity or the money that the investors provide. Everything for the past four decades has been a waste. As it will be until 2050. The tragedy is that there is nothing outside of People, Ideas & Objects that recognizes or appreciates these facts. The producer organizations are designed to enhance the bureaucrats lifestyle and accommodate their needs exclusively. The impact on society of the oil and gas industry is negative from the point of view of the people it discards as surplus from both industry and the service industry, the money it loses from investors and bankers and the opportunity costs lost in paying dividends, royalties and taxes. If this is not a crisis it certainly qualifies as a tragedy.

Now if we turn our attention to the prolific nature of shale reservoirs, the crisis deepens and the tragedy takes a much darker turn. This initial phase of shales impact has been felt and the business is in tatters. Remember the U.S. holds 17% of all shale reservoirs in the world. What’ll happen when the rest of the world learns the technologies that have so far destroyed the industry in the hands of those that do not care.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

My Argument, Part VIII

There is always a possibility that I am incorrect in my assessment of the oil and gas business. There could always be another commodity super cycle that would make the current producers business model valid for a while longer. Or investors and bankers could be using oil and gas for purposes other than profit. What those would be I'm not aware of or pretend to understand. What People, Ideas & Objects needs is that “jarring gong” of self preservation to hit the industry before any action will be taken to develop the Preliminary Specification. My argument is to provide the oil and gas industry with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. We have the Preliminary Specification to provide the business model for when people do realize that the status quo is untenable. Which brings to mind the Milton Friedman quote.

Only a crisis - actual or perceived - produces real change. When that crisis occurs, the actions that are taken depend on the ideas that are lying around. That, I believe, is our basic function: to develop alternatives to existing policies, to keep them alive and available until the politically impossible becomes the politically inevitable.

I am pleased to say that with the Preliminary Specification we are prepared to deal with the future of the oil and gas industry. One that is profitable, innovative, dynamic and accountable. An industry that will have discarded its “muddle along” strategy and took proactive actions to bring about energy independence in North America. There is much talk about this possibility. Shale makes it real however with the financial performance of the producers we will never achieve that objective. The current business model is too dependent on investors to fuel all of the capital demands of the industry. The investors have subsidized the consumers of energy for the past four decades and I am at a loss to see how, with the state of affairs as they are, we are going to move forward from here on the financial base that we have, the operational base is incapable of being profitable, and yet we believe we can just wish energy independence into existence?

If as I suspect, Donald Trump will be the president for the next eight years, or as long as he desires. We have seen in the few months since he was elected a new business attitude begin to develop. Just this week, with the full power of the white house, more has happened than in the past eight years. Our long protracted progressive nightmare is over. As more and more success is attributed to the president's policies, the more garbage he will be able to wipe away. This progressive nightmare began in the 1960’s and has continued since then. We’re now getting back to business and it's about time. Hollywood and Madonna will be upset but they’ve had their run.

So what would happen if producers changed their minds regarding People, Ideas & Objects and the Preliminary Specification. That producers heard that “jarring gong” and realized that these alternatives to the existing policies were necessary. I’ll be the first to admit that there is no way in the world that the Preliminary Specification will ever be implemented in a normal environment. It is politically impossible for it to be adopted by healthy, profitable organizations. The crisis however is here. That is my perception but also the reality if you critically read the financial statements of the producers. There has been a rapid deterioration in the health of all of the producers over the past few years where many are carcasses strewn across the landscape.

Yet the producers behaviours haven’t changed. This week we heard of a sizeable gain of 67 new rigs being deployed in the United States. OPEC, I believe became tired of being the scapegoat for the oil price collapse. Certainly they changed their policies and created the downturn in the price of oil. However the downturn in the price of oil was inevitable. The U.S. producers had doubled their production of oil in only a few years. If OPEC didn’t act to hold market share, they would eventually lose that market share which would be difficult to reclaim. The story in the past year became it was OPEC’s fault. The U.S. producers had nothing to do with it. Now we see OPEC reducing production and the U.S. producers rushing in to fill the void being made by the cuts from OPEC’s agreement. I think we can now see clearly the behaviour of the U.S. producers is unchanged and the source of the issue of overproduction and oversupply unresolved. When we also see that producers depend on willing investors, I think, the continuation of that behaviour may be a bit much to ask. There is no discipline in the industry, overproduction will resume very shortly. Does anyone doubt that, and do we really have to go there?

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

My Argument, Part VII

One of the areas that I have difficulty in accepting about the cash flow numbers of the oil and gas producers. Is what I believe to be an overstatement of those values as a result of the accounting that is done. If we look at the capital expenditures of the producer firm. And we look in hindsight at the production profile we see that not all of the capital expenditures were dedicated to increasing the firm's production profile. The reality of oil and gas is the ever present decline curve, particularly in shale. Should we look more critically at the capital expenditures of a producer and determine which dollars were spent in maintaining the production profile, and those dollars that were spent in expanding the production profile.

This goes to the heart of the issue of capitalizing everything under the sun. If capital expenditures are to maintain the production profile why would they not be considered operating costs. If they were they would reduce operating cash flows substantially and more accurately capture the activities and value that the firm is engaged in. This would immediately reevaluate the company's market capitalization and enterprise value in today’s environment. These reduced cash flows would more accurately relate to the state of the industry and producers would have to realize the three fold increase in revenues to record commodity price levels in order to better evaluate their firm. Having everything deemed to be a capital expenditure makes the cash flow overstated, in my opinion, just as capitalizing everything to the balance sheet will overvalue the firm's assets.

As we can see everything in oil and gas accounting is skewed to overvaluation. Assets, cash flow and earnings all are affected by the policies that are in place within the industry. This industry “norm” has enabled producers to believe that they are productive, contributing members of society when in fact they have been a financial disaster. It is only after four decades of this accounting treatment that the evidence of the issues in doing their accounting in this manner is becoming evident. Essentially the value that is contained within the entire industry's infrastructure, that is the entire producing infrastructure in North America, isn’t worth anything as it is a cash flow drain with catastrophic losses. The only measure in which to turn the industry around from this point is to triple the revenues to record commodity price levels of the producers for a sustained period. These revenues would be able to remediate the destruction that occurred these past four decades. Investors and bankers have invested in good faith, now own an industry that is a drain on their resources, and have indeed subsidized the consumer for their energy needs for these past four decades. The amount of the consumers subsidy accurately reflected as property, plant and equipment on the producers balance sheets.

Oil and gas is a capital intensive business. The way it is run today is the capital is raised, spent and sits for generations on the firm's balance sheet in their entirety. Turning around the capital to be used again and again is never done. It has always been believed that you just raise more money each and every year. Spend that, and then add it to the pile of never depleted assets on your well defended balance sheet. Whatever that means exactly, I don’t know. Producers have to begin to turn their financial resources over in a much quicker fashion. By doing the above, recognizing that most of their capital expenditures are to maintain their production profile, having those capital expenditures recorded as operations will return that capital back into cash within the current fiscal period. That is with the one big qualifier. If the firm is run like a profitable business and not an engineering exercise. It employs the price maker strategy of the Preliminary Specification and realizes the prices that make the producer a truly profitable operation.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

My Argument, Part VI

One might see a pattern in the activities of the producers in this current era of difficulties. Commodity prices go up, producers are giddy with anticipation of the coming good times. However, inevitably the commodity prices do go back down again. Primarily as a result of their overproduction and oversupply. This pattern is random and is subject to a variety of inputs, such as the six month agreement with OPEC. Another pattern that can be seen that is very predictable is the quarterly results that each of the producers issue to their shareholders. For the past number of years the losses that these producers have recorded have been catastrophic. There is no other way to describe them. If you read the text of these releases though you would think that times have never been better. I don’t know how long that these two patterns have been playing out in the industry. We have to be coming up to almost a decade in natural gas, and closer to five years in oil. That nothing is done, that nothing is discussed to be done, and I think they can’t, won’t and will not ever do anything about this is a mistake that the producers management is making. Which brings to mind a quote from Cicero.

Any man can make mistakes, but only a fool persists in his error.

I have to say that I enjoy the relationship that I have with the oil and gas industry. I find it very liberating. I seek to provide them with profitable operations, they seek to destroy me while they also destroy the money they’ve been entrusted with. One party is constructive, the other destructive.

If we look at that horizon spread out to 2040 we can be satisfied in knowing that our producer friends will continue in their destructive ways, and will do so with the archaic technologies that they currently employ. It’s 2017 and there has been a revolution in Information Technology. I don’t know how it is those office buildings that the producers occupy don’t pancake as a result of the weight of the paper that resides in these firms. The point being from an ERP basis, we are talking about the dark ages in terms of implementation of any value added technology. Remember oil and gas is an engineering exercise not a business. If you spend money on an ERP implementation it will leave the producer with less to spend on drilling.

I have provided producers with a tangible means in which to earn profitable operations by implementing the Preliminary Specification. Our value proposition for the next 25 years is valued in the $25.7 to $45.7 trillion. Incremental dollars to the industry. And I do that without drilling one well myself. It involves the application of today’s technology to the oil and gas business. That’s two things, technology and a focus on the business, that this engineering exercise is missing, and are the root cause of its destruction. But that is just one man’s opinion.

All the technologies in the world are only as good as the people who implement them. And the producers have hired my competitors to ensure that they tick the ERP box off on the list of things to have. I’m not imputing there is a symbiotic relationship between the producers and the technology providers that they’ve hired. I’m stating it unequivocally. And this is the issue in all technology implementations. People, Ideas & Objects have addressed this issue explicitly by providing the ERP systems, the software development capability and the user community.

To make the same mistakes as have been made in implementing ERP before would be foolish. That is why we are providing a permanent software development capability to the oil and gas industry. Software supports and defines the organization. It cements it in an unchanging environment. The only manner in which to change the organization is to have the software development capability and user community become a permanent feature of the industry. Otherwise all we’ll do is seal the industry in the Preliminary Specification definition and have them experience any deficiencies in that model without the ability to make the necessary changes. That’s not our plan. Someone should ask to see the producers plan.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

My Argument, Part V

Everything in the oil and gas industry is believed to be getting better now, not because the producers have done anything productive, only because the time that has passed is consistent with what previous downturns have taken to remedy themselves. We are, or have been through the worst downturn in the industries history and nothing of remedial action has been taken by any of the producers. That is because it’s not a business, its an engineering exercise and we can see the beginnings of that once again in the heightened drilling activity of the producers. They are preparing to drill, complete and equip more wells in order to catch more revenues. Cash has never been so desperately needed by producers as it is these days.

The only thing that will make the producers change the way they operate is that the situation becomes so difficult none of the producers can proceed in the marketplace. The point that we call “the jarring gong.” We have to hit the wall in order for people to give up on the ways that these producers are operating today. That they destroy value and there is nothing left is of little to no concern to them. That they can’t fund anything, that there is no support from investors and bankers is what is necessary and what is required for them, and the rest of the industry to see the need for the changes to the Preliminary Specification. As Winston Churchill described the “jarring gong,” he stated the following in reference to the point in time when Hitler invaded France.

When the situation was manageable it was neglected, and now that it is thoroughly out of hand, we apply too late the remedies which then might have effected a cure. There is nothing new in the story. It is as old as the Sibylline books. It falls into that long dismal catalogue of the fruitlessness of experience and the confirmed unteachability of mankind. Want of foresight, unwillingness to act when action would be simple and effective, lack of clear thinking, confusion of counsel until the emergency comes, until self-preservation strikes its jarring gong -- these are the features which constitute the endless repetition of history. 

Just as no one today would buy a Motorola or Nokia flip phone, neither of those firms are providing commercially viable products. They’re also no longer independent entities that are supported solely by their own activities. They’re dependent on their parent firms for their survival and will be for the foreseeable future. These phone companies were unable to make the transition to the smartphone era. Oil and gas producers today are proving that they have been unable to make the transition to shale. A transition that has seen the industry turn from scarcity to an abundance of the resource. Operationally they can drill and produce shale. However the business has been run into the ground as a result of the overproduction and oversupply of shale production on the oil and gas commodity markets. Continuation of the current environment will see every current producer eventually leave the business due to financial failure. Many have wiped out all of the money that was ever given to them during their entire history. They are heavily indebted, especially when you consider that their asset balances are bloated to begin with, and their debt levels are measured against those assets. They have no, or negative, working capital and the cash crisis continues in the industry. The only source of cash is production which of course is the leading cause of the overproduction and oversupply issue.

Multilateral fracing in shale formation began as late as June 2002. I have been writing this blog since late 2005, focused on using the Joint Operating Committee as the key organizational construct of the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer. The Preliminary Specification is the current status of my efforts. Although the business has changed, the way the business has been managed has not. There is no belief by the producers that the business needs to change. The war that has been waged between industry and People, Ideas & Objects is evidence that they don’t believe any change is warranted. And if they did, it would have occurred by now.

“If you mind the operation and conduct state of the art engineering, everything else will take care of itself. Markets will correct themselves if they’re out of balance.” The producers would say and these are their attitudes. They believe that markets are mythical beings that will do things for the producers without their involvement. Nonsense, markets simply provide users with information in the form of price. If you can make money at the market price then you produce. If you can’t then don’t produce. Producing everything and hoping, believing, dreaming or thinking that markets will deal with it is foolish. What is needed is the industry to adopt a business focus so that this doesn’t continue to happen.

Somehow the valuation of oil and gas producers became materially overvalued! My analysis showed that each producer firm was substantially overvalued in terms of their financial performance and their stock price. To generalize, up to three and four fold what these producers should be trading at. I’ve commented on the verbiage coming out of the brokerage houses and how it resembled the noise coming out of the bank’s prior to the banking crisis. Whether the stocks do drop or not, at these valuations what’s in it for the investor to participate in any new offering? Paying lofty valuations to provide the producer with a short term aid in their working capital deficiencies isn’t going to generate much attention. Either way the producers have a lot to lose as far as I’m concerned.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

My Argument, Part IV

Shale is the nuclear weapon of the oil and gas industry. Once the technology is known, it changes everything and there is nothing that can be done to go back to the way things were before. Multi-lateral completions are the obvious evolution of the technologies that we were headed to. However, the business didn’t see these changes and hasn’t adapted to them. This initial phase of the technology has proven its capability to overwhelm the marketplace with overproduction and oversupply from just the United States. Recall the U.S. holds only 17% of the global shale based reserves. Does the future look bright for these producers? Producers who are currently in desperate financial condition as a result of their overproduction and oversupply.

Everyone can have deliverability growth with inexhaustible, supportive investors. The industry has proven that 1,000 times in the last four decades. Now with shale, producers have to have deliverability growth that's profitable. And do that without inexhaustible, supportive shareholders, but to be beholden to them for past promises. They’re still around and they have crystal clear memories embedded in the paper documents and prospectuses producers published. This transition from wholly dependant on investors to being a viable going concern is what all producers must now undertake. And just as the DNA of a mouse isn’t fundamentally different from that of a horse, to make a mouse run like a horse is a difficult task. Something I look forward to watching in these next few years.

Production allocation across the industry is a necessity today as it has been for the past few years of shales existence. But who produces what? Should the government tell who has the privilege of producing? Maybe we should just consolidate the producers and create a monopoly producer? Why not just ensure that any production meets the basic criteria that it only occurs if it’s profitable. If production is profitable, then it produces, otherwise it doesn’t. This is the methodology that is inherent in the price maker strategy of the decentralized production model of the Preliminary Specification. Instilling this production discipline in the industry is the production allocation methodology that People, Ideas & Objects believes is the appropriate one for a market based economy. It would seem that People, Ideas & Objects are wholly inconsistent in this regard with the rest of the oil and gas industry. Theirs is a comfortable, unchallenged business model currently in operation that has worked well for the bureaucrats, but no one else.

What is the cost of this downturn? In Calgary ⅓ of all office buildings are empty. Representative of the number of people who no longer commute to, or work. The service industry has taken its traditionally much harder hit than the oil and gas industry itself. Royalty holders are suffering. Government tax revenues are down from corporate tax, payroll tax, and income taxes. The investors, bankers and if I could solicit sympathy for the junk bond investors, all of these people are losing money, unnecessarily so, as the Preliminary Specification has addressed this issue for long enough to have resolved it. The insistence of the producers to muddle along, do nothing, and accept the devastation that society is suffering today, is business as usual.

If we accepted People, Ideas & Objects Preliminary Specification and the elements contained within that software definition. Assume that commodity prices resumed their record highs. The damage that is being done to the industry would be stopped. The future would be stable and people could plan and evaluate their investments and careers on the basis of a reliable and appropriately managed industry. Society would have a reliable source of energy that is proven. Those firms in the industry would be profitable and healthy. They would pay royalty holders and they would of course pay taxes. The service industry would see that they have a reliable source of work that will be done over a consistent period without the boom and busts that have so devastated their firms. Profitable oil and gas operations provide society with significant value.

One of the reasons that producers don’t do this today is they don’t know what's profitable. Their accounting is inaccurate from the point of view of determining which property is profitable and which is not. The overheads within the firm are all consumed by the firm themselves and are allocated on a basis between operations and capital expenditures. Therefore gross overheads for the year are allocated 60% to capital and 40% to operations. Or whatever the numbers maybe. None of the actual overhead costs are allocated to any of the properties. Overhead in today’s market can range from 10 to 40% of the properties revenue. Natural gas is much more difficult to administer than oil. Operated vs non-operated have differences. Some properties are systematically problematic. Others aren’t. All of these costs are dumped into the two accounts, one on the balance sheet the other on the income statement. The properties never see how much a production accountant or any other overhead item costs. And as a result the firms never know what is or isn’t profitable. And there isn’t a soul in the industry, or the planet, that can tell you the real cost of overhead of any property.

It is lazy thinking by the producers that we will “muddle through” and “it's the way of the markets” or “market rebalancing.”  They are correct that these commodities are markets and they’re sending information in the form of price. That price information says that you can’t produce profitably at these prices and therefore you shouldn’t produce. But that is too much for them to consider. It is their minds that hold us back from reaching our potential and we continue on in an accounting nightmare that is false and foolish. Where fudge is the name of the game. In a devastated industry that points the finger at others as to who’s fault it is. Doing something themselves. Acting in their own best interests is something that has not been done for four decades and as long as there are investors around it will continue to be the case. Or will it?

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

My Argument, Part III

Many believe that the industry will resume normal operations as a result of the six month OPEC agreement, and the conclusion of what could be considered a bad year in 2015. It is also reasonable to believe that I don’t think so. Unless we see that three fold increase in revenue over a sustained period, these producers will continue to be in desperate financial condition. No amount of investment or debt will be able to provide them with any resolution of their difficulties. This is a permanent condition that will not be resolved without the price maker strategy of the Preliminary Specification. The damage that has been done over the past four decades has been extensive and has gutted these firms of any and all value. There will be chronic, systemic overproduction from now on as it is a feature of the current business model, not a bug. Until we change that business model, we will not have changed the industry. Therefore we are stuck in this malaise until terminal liquidity of the industry occurs, or the Preliminary Specification is built. I therefore see the Preliminary Specification being adopted as a result of the terminal liquidity of the industry. Creative destruction in its finest form.

2015 was the worst year for the industry on record. 2016 was no prize. Oil and gas prices are up. The service industry has been run over by a truck. The cash crisis continues throughout the industry and I predict it will continue to do so. This chronic cash shortfall being a bug of the business model, not a feature. The bankers and investors who usually filled that cash sinkhole are tepid, to say the least. So yeah, party on! At least that is what the producers are promoting. If going through the process of the past few years has taught us anything it's that the producers can’t, won’t and will not ever change. Not a word is spoken about anything regarding the business of the business and what changes need to be made. Status quo rules! Other than the futile jabs and occasional left upper cut that I sustained from the industry over the past few years. The industry is not in good fighting shape. They are weary from the battle and I have hit them too hard too many times. However, they have not thrown in the towel yet and are prepared to go the distance.

The most devastating counterpunch I can throw at this time is to mention the year 2040. Is the continuation of this “muddling along” strategy all that we are to look forward to? The same old same old as we have had for the past four decades? Should everyone continue to count on one good business year out of ten? Is this the best that producers can offer? And is this the only thing that they’re offering? I’m afraid it is. Everyday we are hearing of pipeline leaks and other operational issues from equipment that needs to be replaced. Almost the entire energy infrastructure needs to be replaced in the next few decades. Some have claimed this will range in cost from $20 to $40 trillion. As an investor, where do I sign up to volunteer my money? I want to get with the people who will raise that entire $20 to $40 trillion, spend it foolishly just the one time, never turn that capital over, and watch their spending glow bright and bold as property, plant and equipment year after year after year on their well defended balance sheets. All this while these producers report accounting profits that are of their traditional mythical and magical standards. My god as an investor, I want to sell everything and get into the oil and gas business! Just to be with those that say that is where it's at.

The sober, judicious, intelligent and responsible people have been watching the industry and its activities from afar. Whose perspective do you think they see? The one thing that can be said about these people is they don’t like to be bothered. They have other things to concern themselves with. And when they do get bothered they generally express themselves in spurts of anger towards those that have caused their attention to be diverted. That nothing was done, other than to blame OPEC, during these past two years, and nothing continues to be done for the future is most disconcerting to them. What they will therefore do is quietly make the changes that need to be made and move on to resume their normal lives. In the very near future producers may feel like they’ve been left behind by those that used to be in their corner. But that’s the way it is in the fight business, sometimes you win and sometimes you lose.

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

My Argument, Part II

Oil, and for that matter natural gas prices are up, problem solved. Or has it been. The analysis that I did over Christmas showed that more investment will do absolutely nothing but waste more good hard earned money. What is needed is an increase in revenues. Everyone in the world would agree on that. And therefore the focus on the OPEC agreement and its success in moving oil prices into the low $50 range should be celebrated by everyone. Except for me that is. I see it as a matter of degree. Prices are up and that’s good but what I see is the need for more revenue, and lots more revenue. My overall concluding assumption from the review that I completed is that the industry needs three hundred percent more revenue than it is currently realizing. You read that right. If I took any of the companies I looked at, tripled their revenue, you would come to the conclusion that the company would be able to operate as a viable going concern.

That however, did not get them out of the bushes or necessarily deal with the legacy issues of four decades of bad management. They would still have the legacy costs of the past in terms of debts and disgruntled shareholders who have been fleeced repeatedly. Moving their outsized asset balances of property, plant and equipment would also leave many in a losing situation for many years yet. For those few producers that still read this blog, I am not proposing that you triple your production profile in order to achieve that higher revenue. That would not resolve the issue in anyway. I’m saying we need to triple the oil and gas prices from where they are today in order to resolve the issues that plague the industry. These commodity prices would then be close to their all time highs. There is only one option to do this and that is to implement the price maker strategy of the Preliminary Specification.

One of the errors in my communications over the past few years is the scope of the difference between what the industry considered a “price increase” and what I determined a healthy producer should consider a necessary “price increase.” Everyone knows shale is expensive and is an order of magnitude higher in cost than conventional oil and gas. In the Preliminary Specification each producer must evaluate each individual property of theirs on the basis of an accurate, detailed, actual accounting of whether it is profitable. If it’s profitable then it produces. If it is not profitable it remains shut-in until such time as the prices rise, the costs decline or the deliverability increases. And the determination of those costs will include the capital used in this capital intensive business on a basis of being recognized in a timely fashion. Allocating the capital to the proven reserves never releases those costs to the income statement where that investment can be recycled repeatedly into cash and new investments. As a result of this change your capital costs are going to hit your income statement in the future as if you were spending money like a drunken sailor. The price increases that I am proposing would therefore cover the cost of capital in a dynamic industry where the capital is turned over repeatedly.

The business model that exists today is one in which the capital is raised by debt or equity and is deployed once and only once. The money goes into the producer and never comes out. These producers are slugs, they’re not dynamic in terms of their use of capital. They raise it once, spend it once, and sit on it for a lifetime. An accounting anomaly allows them to report that they are profitable irrespective of what they do. The more they spend the more they appear to know what their doing. The price of the commodities go up, the stocks go up, the prices of the commodities go down, not so good. They provide no value outside of what the commodity price provides. This is a tragedy that is of epic proportions and one I admit that is difficult to see. However, after four decades there is no solution other than People, Ideas & Objects Preliminary Specification.

When we look at a producer, we see many amortizing the life of their property, plant and equipment over as much as 12 years. Which is very common! Turning this depletion period down to a maximum of three years, and including the capital costs of the current fiscal year will show the hit to the income statement is going to need that three fold increase in revenues to report any profits. It is also going to explode your cash flow from operations. Which is necessary in order to pay back the money you borrowed, and the money the investors gave you to build the business. This operating cash flow will be strong enough in order to provide for the retirement of the debt used in the development of those specific assets over the long term, provide for a handsome dividend to your shareholders and if you know what you’re doing, also fuel your future capital expenditures. There will be no need for producers to make any further demands of the banks or the investors. Producers may never need bankers or investors with the amount that they’ve already been provided with. Those amounts that are sitting like cherished collectables in property, plant and equipment on the producers balance sheets, will be moved to the income statement and will be recognized, finally, as the costs of the business.

Producers are famous for stating that they will defend their balance sheet. Defend what, a fundamental lack of business understanding, or just sheer stupidity? Under the Preliminary Specification, the producers balance sheet should strive for a zero balance of property, plant and equipment. Accounting is about performance not valuation. Your balance sheet does not represent the value of your company. Ever. Those current property, plant and equipment balances, in the above People, Ideas & Objects Preliminary Specification process, will be replaced by cash balances. Then recycling this cash into property, plant and equipment, and back into cash for future investment should be achieved as quickly as possible for the bloody obvious reasons. Taking investor and bank money, year after year after year, never realizing the costs of doing business for four decades is insane and needs to stop. This has only led to losses of tragic proportions throughout the industry, investment and banking communities. Happiest of all are the energy consumers whose real cost of energy consumption is very accurately recorded on the producers heavily defended balance sheets. What we should really do is change property, plant and equipment to read “consumers subsidy.”

The Preliminary Specification, our user community and service providers provide the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Setting the foundation for North America’s energy independence. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here.