OCI Operations Management, Part VII
Performance Evaluation
The Operations Management module brings together an advanced toolset that producers and Joint Operating Committees can use to develop and test more advanced criteria for better performance. The combination of the Analytics & Statistics, Performance Evaluation and Artificial Intelligence modules within the Operations Management module is advantageous due to the combination of financial, operational and technical data and information. This data being the engineered and documented data that is the output of the process of building the Preliminary Specification. It establishes the objective and standard qualities necessary for its unimpeachable nature of what is presented and understood by its users.
Working on the performance aspects of the producer and Joint Operating Committees the user of the Operations Management module doesn’t need to make decisions based on incomplete data or information. The reliability and understanding of the conclusions made are only as good as the data and information quality, its consistency and what users believe the data represent. To suggest that Artificial Intelligence will be of any value when the data and information it uses is questionable, is only the latest iteration of an Information Technology widget. This is the solution to a business problem. People, Ideas & Objects approach to Artificial Intelligence is fundamentally different.
As I indicated in the Pro-forma Worksheet section of the Performance Management section of this module, the use of decision making based on factors outside of the accounting system framework, which is imposed when applying the Pro-forma Worksheet, would lead to incorrect assumptions and hypotheses. This is of particular concern when using the Performance Evaluation section to make performance based decisions on actual, factual data. However, this is not using the strict interpretation of the financial accounting system. This leads to incorrect decisions being made based on clean data regardless of the interpretation used. However taking the SEC’s perspective is not how innovation is developed. New and creative perspectives and ideas need to be developed and understood for their stand alone value to see their worth. Once proven in the Performance Evaluation section, testing the theory in the Pro-forma Worksheet would provide its business understanding and implications.
This is the point of divergence between what investors believe they see in oil & gas, and what the officers and directors produce. The SEC coordinates with accounting standards bodies and audit firms to provide a generic understanding of financial accounting in North America. Such that when an investor analyzes an annual report from company A in industry B, they can use the same understanding and apply it to company C in industry D. They then can make the appropriate decision as to where to invest their money for the optimum return. When company A in industry B has jumped off the cliff in terms of financial accountings generic understanding. Pursuing facetious objectives such as "building balance sheets" and "putting cash in the ground," and generally having begun using their own criteria to exaggerate their financial performance, investors appropriately feel betrayed.
The purpose of this use of an SEC standardized North American reporting system is substantial. It eliminates the need for investors to review each and every document for each potential investment they consider. When they understand the general framework of how the North American reporting system operates, they can defer to it and not have to spend the time reviewing the details at great cost to themselves and at the same time incur an unacceptable cost for the firm to cater to each and every potential investor's questions, their concerns and needs. Markets operate on information. Information in the form of price. When the market understands how that price is generated, it can function efficiently.
It is the implications of the changes within the Pro-forma Worksheet that have to be considered in all cases. It is doubly so when the combination of many changes may have an overall negative effect on earnings that needs to be avoided. Or the changes that generate any detrimental consequences need to be removed. When producers can see what their investors in oil & gas understand, adjust their decision making to ensure profitability everywhere and always, and the consequences of those decisions being made, they will avoid future difficulties, miscommunications and errors with their investors.
Analytics & Statistics, Performance Evaluation
These two modules consist of tools that provide their users with the ability to perform statistical analysis on the data and information they're authorized to access. The Performance Evaluation module is for the Joint Operating Committee and Analytics & Statistics provides the same tools for the producer firm as a whole. The difference is that the domain of data and information is constrained in the case of Performance Evaluation to the Joint Operating Committee members.
The means to build a library of tools to use personally, as a team, a Joint Operating Committee or a producer firm are available in each of these modules. The use and reuse of these formulas will provide accuracy, understanding and value to each organization. The domain of an individual's data is governed by their authority and responsibility within the organization of concern. It would be managed by Oracle Autonomous Database role definitions.
Artificial Intelligence
ChatGPT has demonstrated my concerns about Artificial Intelligence and its value. Producer firms have been using Artificial Intelligence in their organizations for up to three years and I cannot notice any marketable increase in their performance. I often tell people who seem so enamored with AI, the ones all over Facebook, that they should write a software program. Find out how difficult it is to conduct anything serious in technology and reconcile their AI vision with that reality.
Our approach in the Artificial Intelligence module is cost mitigation in this initial phase of the technology introduction. Artificial Intelligence costs and resources are high. As with any innovation, costs need to be controlled and monitored effectively with the appropriate organizational means. In People, Ideas & Objects Preliminary Specification AI is a shared and shareable resource due to its software nature and high development costs. It is also due to the demand for high cost, quality resources that may be displaced from productive activities. If each producer incurs these costs on their own we’ll find the other factor consistent in today’s AI implementations. There are currently only 1% of AI initiatives that are successful.
Separate and distinct from the Analytics & Statistics module. Artificial Intelligence in the Preliminary Specification is a shared and shareable resource available to producers and Joint Operating Committees. Based on the development of a packaged, proven number of algorithms tried and tested before availability. Artificial Intelligence is potentially a powerful tool that can add significant value to a science-based industry such as oil & gas. However, each and every producer throwing resources at this unproven technology will, I believe, ensure that it achieves its unproven nature. When it fails to deliver value after the commitment of significant cost, it will join Windows NT, Y2K, and Big Data in their hall of shame. With the high cost of AI and its success rate below 1%, sharing the costs of the infrastructure of these non-competitive resources, producers will be able to deploy it as they discern its value.
Therefore if we provide a means in which service provider contributions were available, where collaboration across the industry as to the application and use of the AI algorithms, what are the possible enhancements etc. The need to control costs and share in success / failure can be managed once across the industry instead of at each individual producer. When and if the success and value of the AI resources break out into a meaningful and highly valuable discipline. The industry will be able to benefit from what it has learned in this initial phase. It will turn it into a competitive advantage and build individual capabilities in-house for what is deemed necessary. If it is deemed a success there would be an initial infrastructure in place from the collaborations and markets established through these service providers. This would be something to build upon. Today there appears to be only science fiction.
There have been too many times that we’ve been led to believe that some whiz bang IT product or new version of software was promised to turn the world upside down. AI appears to be today's approach. People, Ideas & Objects approach is to initialize the technology within the science and technology based industry of oil & gas. Control its costs through the Organizational Construct of making it a non-rival cost, or part of Professor Paul Romer’s “New Growth Theory.”
Operations Management Conclusion
Producers in oil & gas are faced with a challenging dichotomy. One in which profitable operations are the only acceptable means of production everywhere and always from this point forward. Much has been wasted in the past decades leading to unsupported capital structures. Damage and destruction are extensive. Only a comprehensive rebuild of the industry and its service industry based on the Preliminary Specification resolves the existential organizational issues facing the producer officers and directors. Continuation of “muddling through” does not appear to be capable of dealing with these issues or resolving the most difficult future the industry has ever faced. Officers and directors have certainly had time to do so. The other side of this dichotomy of providing profitable oil & gas operations everywhere and always is that the consumer needs reliable, secure, abundant and affordable energy resources. With North American energy independence fulfilled in the 21st century. With 10 to 25 thousand man hours of equivalent manpower contained in each barrel of oil equivalent. This resource supply is necessary for our civilization.
We’re unable to get there with the chronically unprofitable production of the past four decades. Investors have bowed out and the only source of capital large enough to finance industry capital demands is its profitability. In other words the oil & gas business in North America needs to be operated as a going concern. Only the Preliminary Specification has the plan to make that happen. We have no right to pass an industry on to the next generation until we can prove we managed the resource responsibly. Which means all of this valuable resource must be produced profitably. Each barrel of oil equivalent should be profitable in the “real” sense from this point forward as the resource is uniquely irreplaceable and is the blood of our economy. What right do we have to steal these resources from future generations? We are obligated to them to prove that we did not waste them by producing them profitably. We are also obligated to pass a viable, prosperous and profitable industry on to them. If we lose the script now it would not be difficult to foresee foreign sources of oil & gas demanding North America to play second fiddle to China, Russia or others in terms of our energy supply.
People, Ideas & Objects Operations Management module is designed to provide producers and Joint Operating Committees with a means to monitor and control their operations. Establishing a sound base of data and information necessary to ensure decisions and actions are conducted with precision and profitability in mind. Where the financial, operational and technical data of the producer or property are available for use. Technologies involved in the Internet of Things are deployed and operational to benefit these users. And resources are deployed based on budgets and plans generated and set through this module. The Operations Management module is the aggregation of and accumulation of the efforts undertaken in the Preliminary Specifications and its other 13 modules. It is presented in a format where information can be used effectively for profitable decision making.