Commodity Prices
Weighing on OPEC’s decision is mounting global outcry against steep fuel prices on the back of higher crude futures. While U.S. President Donald Trump has said crude prices are “artificially Very High” and India faces calls for price caps on gasoline and diesel, a truckers strike over surging fuel costs in Brazil culminated with the resignation of the state oil company’s CEO on Friday.
It also appears that there’s been a ceiling established for the height that oil prices can climb. That being around $70 U.S. for WTI. Based on our calculations for our sample of 23 producers, they need prices in the region of $141 U.S. for WTI. These prices being what are required for profitable oil and gas production. Today oil and gas investors are disenchanted with the performance of the producers. They’ve withheld investment from the industry for over two years in an attempt to shut off the excessive drilling that causes the chronic overproduction. This hasn’t worked. The issue for the oil and gas investor today is that the market never seems to be adequate for them to earn a legitimate profit. One that recognizes the costs of capital in a capital intensive industry. Now that a ceiling is being placed on the limit that oil prices can achieve, not only will producers never be able to attract oil and gas investors again, they’ll never be able to charge the appropriate amount to cover all of the costs for the oil and gas that they produce. The appropriate amount being based on a full and accurate accounting of what it costs to explore and produce oil and gas in North America. A paradox of proportions not seen in the industry before.
Financial, operational and political control? Dreams from the past that once were. Now producers can’t raise any money in the financial marketplace. Can’t borrow any money from banks. Can’t make any money. Have no money or working capital. Bureaucrats always said they were wildly profitable at these and even lower prices and the consumers and politicians believed what they said. Consumers are therefore unwilling to pay and that’s now the rule producers will have to live by. Producers never had a plan. The plan has always been to seek greener pastures in other industries when employment in oil and gas became untenable. The plans were therefore personal. Wait until the time to jump ship was obvious and make sure your not the first or the last to do so. The oil and gas industry be damned. To me it looks like were awfully close to that point in time. Just a few more pay checks will do and that’s all that the bureaucrats will need. On to technology or the space industry.
Commentary on Canada’s Prime Minister’s deft move in nationalizing the Trans Mountain Pipeline has been pretty much unanimous. No one likes it and no one thinks it’s the right thing to do. Many believe the oil and gas industry will find it hard to convince investors that Canada is the place to put their money. The inability of the producers to get the job done being the issue. It’s not just the oil and gas industry though. Many think this will have repercussions for all industries and for all foreign direct investments into Canada.
Oil price are down over 10% since the Saudis and Russians started talking about increasing their production. You can feel the energy taken out of everyone in the industry. The prospect of higher commodity prices were the only hope of any future and now only vivid memories of the dozens of times that commodity prices have fallen in the past decade. You could see that no one was jumping on the bandwagon as the prices reached the mid $50’s, then the high $60’s and onto the low $70 ranges. The only thing it provided was the hope that given time producers might be able to heal financially, investors may find them attractive and the show would go on. This hope is gone and the number of times that we’ve been at this exact same point over the past decade shows the ridiculous nature of the bureaucrats approach to the oil and gas business. “Do nothing” the standard operating procedure and the “muddle along” strategy. I can tell you that this is as good as it gets. There is no more. This is the trend that I’ve watched in this industry since 1986 when prices collapsed to $10. Then producers moaned “oh whoa is me.” And the fact that I’m writing this today shows that absolutely nothing has happened in these past thirty two years.
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