Lowest Level of Performance Attainable
The 2015 fiscal year was a wholesale disaster. Many companies were forced to write their capital assets down which caused them to incur substantial losses. $18 billion here, $23 billion there, the losses were earth shattering. Many experienced losses that were larger than the amount of money that they had raised during the lifetime of the company. Now the second quarter reports will reflect their status and financial condition within the industry. I didn’t see any financings of any material volume or amount. There were a number of property sales that may have enabled some of the producers to raise some cash. But other than that we are going to see an industry, that is reputed to be profitable at $50, not generate any cash and indeed not report any profits. This quarter will show what the industry is capable of doing on a stand alone basis. In an atmosphere where prices were “robust and improving” the bureaucrats should be hustling these reports out the door as quick as they can to prove to the world that they are everything that they say they are.
I don’t think so. What we will see is that these claims of being profitable at $48 are false. Those are the costs of royalties and operations. The cost of capital and overhead also need to be included in those calculations. In addition, the consistent decades long refusal to do an appropriate accounting of the costs by stating that the capital and overhead costs are “sunk costs.” Has left a legacy of bank and bond debt and shareholders that were used to fund those capital and overhead “sunk costs” which needs to be repaid. These legacy costs on top of the actual costs of production reach almost $200 / barrel in terms of the costs and cash commitments that these bureaucrats need in order to keep the lights on and say they are profitable.
Since the late 1970’s I’ve been in the industry and at no time during this time was there ever a focus on profits. It's always been on cash flow. Included in those cash flow numbers are the investments being made by the shareholders, annually, and the debt that the company is incurring. The engineers and geologists think this is the point. They are fooled by the SEC’s ridiculous accounting methodologies that have been in place since the late 1970’s that capitalize everything that is ever spent in an oil and gas company. As a result the geologists and engineers are reporting “profits” under this scenario despite what they did, how they performed or what they spent. You can not discern the success of a producer firm based on the financial statements that it produces. Performance has never been the essential ingredient of the oil and gas producer. The phenomenal oil and gas people are indistinguishable from the idiots.
You can run an industry on this basis for apparently 35 years and things will then begin to fall apart. At least that is how long these forces have taken to cause the destruction of the oil and gas industry. We saw a trend in the late 1980’s and 1990’s where producers just continued their uncontrolled pursuit of more production in the never ending decline of oil prices. This took almost two decades to clear. Now with shale we have a permanent oversupply scenario as a result of the prolific nature of these reservoirs. In both oil and gas. The only thing that stops the bureaucrats from bringing all of that oil and all of that gas on to the marketplace at once is the limited size of the investors pocketbook. There is no production discipline. There wasn’t any discipline in the 1980’s and 1990’s and there certainly isn’t any now.
What we will see in these second quarter reports is the extent of the cash crisis. Some producers will have disposed of assets to pay the bills and keep the lights on. The extent of the cash crisis will be ferocious. There is a large intermediate that completed a $1.3 billion stock offering at the beginning of the year. And sold some properties for a good price to build their cash balances in the first quarter. I was surprised to read that they were in the market again selling some of their Canadian midstream assets. This demand for cash was always fueled by the banks and investors in the past.
The performance level in the industry is at the lowest attainable point on an industrial scale. We are talking daycare level of capabilities, not even kindergarten level. Expecting profitable operations to suddenly come from these bureaucrats is the foolish expectation that I would laugh at today. The lie that their profitable at $48 or whatever is going to be exposed as well. What I’m afraid of is that these next three to four weeks may be the most difficult for the innocent victims of the bureaucrats incompetence, the people. Payroll is due, that might be the first indication that things are not right. I’m going to call this next month oil and gas armageddon.
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