A Career's Worth of Work

We have clearly identified that the existing producer firms are inadequate to meet the needs of the future energy consumers demands. These hollowed out carcasses that call themselves producers can’t, won’t and will not ever make the changes necessary to deal with their issues. When it comes to addressing the point about the accounting for capital and overhead you know you read it here first, and have only ever read it here. There is no desire to deal with any of the problems facing these producers. Sticking their heads in the sand and hoping that the issues will all go away on their own isn’t going to work. Or “market rebalancing” which we know is the willful destruction of the industry. In addition to of all this destruction we have a difficult job to do in order to meet the demands of the future energy consumers. Freezing in the dark is the extreme of this thinking. However, it is important to remember that the U.S. is the most advanced economy in the world and the largest consumer of oil and gas. Which country will be the first to volunteer to hold their economy back to ration the energy that we do have?

If a group of like minded people were to gather to approach a period of time in an industry with such difficulties. The first thing they would want to do would be to organize themselves to approach this new environment. Make sure everyone was in the right place and all pulling in the same direction. It would seem to me, in this day and age, that might be a good job for software to define and support that organization. That is the job of our user community here at People, Ideas & Objects. To reorganize the industry based on the Information Technologies that identify and support our modern organizations.

We’ve talked about leadership in the past week and the role that it plays in this initiative. I particularly want to point out that we are user community based software developments. We are establishing our user community now and will not commence development of any software until such time as our users are in place. They are the critical element of our softwares quality and ensuring that we’re building the appropriate systems for the oil and gas producers and service providers, and their futures. The Preliminary Specification provides the foundation of our user communities work. It is a vision of how our systems are different. How the producers, industry and service providers will be structured and operated when we use the Joint Operating Committee as the key organizational construct of the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas producer.

The leadership from our user community during the initial developments of the Preliminary Specification will be key in providing our software quality and the foundation of the industry Very important work that will be a necessity for these next 25 years. But there is much more. Our user community is not a one off and done scenario that the industry can then continue on without. What will be critical for the industry in these next 25 years will be the user communities capability to adapt to any situation that it finds itself in. That it deals with the issues and opportunities that are discovered. Without our user community as a defined oil and gas industry capability then all we are doing is sealing the industry under the constraints of the Preliminary Specification for the next 25 years. Certainly a better situation than today, however with the user community continuing their work throughout the remainder of the industries existence then the industry can make the changes that it needs when it needs them.

This is how I see things continuing from here. A future in which the industry becomes adaptive and reactive. Exploiting its opportunities as they appear. Where the needs of the industry are anticipated by our user community, instilled in the software of the producers, service providers and industry. And the industry is changed with little deliberate thought by the producers to make the change. Dynamic is what I would call the characteristic that I would want the industry to become. What are the bureaucrats offering?

The Preliminary Specification and user community provides the oil and gas producer with the most dynamic, innovative, profitable and successful means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

Leadership's Goals and Objectives

Our last number of posts have discussed leadership in the oil and gas industry. Leadership which will be needed to guide it through the difficulties that it’s in. We see in the current administration no initiative to address the problems that are systemic and critical to the survival of the industry. Continuing on as we are is not an option when we consider the next 25 years and the demands that will be placed on us by energy consumers. It will be a progressively more difficult era than at any time in the history of the industry. That is a given. We’ll need to focus on North America as the exclusive region of our concern. We’ll have to turn the industry over to the basis of profitable operations in terms of all of its production. And we may have to consider the objective of energy self sufficiency as an overall goal. This latter goal only attainable once we have all of North American production being produced profitably. Now we begin to see the breadth and depth of leadership that is needed to make the oil and gas industry fulfill its promise.

We certainly won’t be meeting these goals and objectives on the basis of the producer organizations that exist today. We are far short of meeting North America’s demand for oil. All of oil and gas production in North America is unprofitable. The producers themselves have destroyed the faith the investors and bankers have in the industry. It will be those investors and bankers that will be needed to make the investments to achieve these goals. And it is these producers who are in such dire financial condition as to need at least a decade in rehabilitation before they can approach the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable demands of these goals and objectives. Are we suggesting that we will approach this industry's future, with these organizations, when we discuss our capital needs with future investors? Or should we get our act together by implementing the Preliminary Specification first?

When we extend these current difficulties over the next 25 years and compare that to what we are able to provide in the Preliminary Specification. We are assessing our value proposition. It has been our critique of the industry that the costs of capital and overhead are almost never considered in the accounting by the producers. We would change that basis of accounting and begin to calculate the costs of production that include all of the costs that are incurred. Capital, operating, royalties and overhead. As a result, the producer would need to be generating much higher revenues to cover the cost of capital from the prices that are realized when they sell their production. Under the Preliminary Specifications decentralized production model we use the price maker strategy for all the producers. Only profitable production that considers all of these costs will be produced. The remainder will be shut-in until the prices rise or innovations are found to produce the property profitably.

As a result of this price maker strategy the future oil and gas investor will be able to safely invest in oil and gas with an understanding that the producer will only be producing profitable production. However, also understanding that those producers that don’t know what they are doing may still be reporting losses as a result of unsuccessful drilling and completion operations. That they however, will not be destroying the commodity markets with overproduction which is the propensity of them to do for the past number of decades under the current bureaucracy. In addition, since the cost of capital is considered in the calculation of profitability their capital will be returned to the investors through profitable operations. Unlike today where producers have had their hand out at least annually for additional capital. Diluting previous investors interests as bureaucrats spend themselves blindly into overproduction.

Therefore there are two basic elements of our value proposition. One is our price maker strategy that provides producers with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Lifting the price of the commodities in the marketplace to the marginal cost. This will move the prices of oil and gas to substantially higher values than what have been realized over the past two years in oil, and past six years in natural gas. The second element is that return of capital in the form of dividends that will be possible when the producers recognize the cost of capital by passing them through to the income statement in order to recapture that invested capital. It is these two elements that have put our value proposition in the range of $25.7 to $45.7 trillion over these next 25 years. $5.7 trillion is attributable to the increase in the commodity prices as a result of our price maker strategy. This portion of our value proposition is significantly below what a calculation would generate based on today’s prices. The second element is based on the estimate of what is necessary in terms of capital investment in the industry over the next 25 years. Which includes the return of the capital that is sitting on the bloated balance sheets of the producers today, which the bureaucrats have never thought of ever returning.

Leadership from stem to stern, everywhere and within everyone will be necessary. One of the things that People, Ideas & Objects is doing is making a change in the work that people in the industry will be doing. We will be leaving the work that computers do to the computers. And that includes the processing and storage of information. Too much time and effort of good people are spent in these mindless tasks today. And we will instead spend our time on the things that people are good at. The leadership, unstructured problem solving, decisions, creativity, collaboration, research, ideas, design, planning, thinking, negotiating, compromising and innovating. What exactly are the bureaucrats offering over these next 25 years.

The Preliminary Specification and user community provides the oil and gas producer with the most dynamic, innovative, profitable and successful means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

Season's End

Bill Gross the bond king intimated that there is always someone with a sandwich board predicting armageddon. Well if the shoe fits, I’ll certainly wear it. But that’s not the case here at People, Ideas & Objects. There is a deep, fundamentally broken oil and gas industry in North America. A once in a millennium fire in Canada will be resolved in the short term. This fundamentally broken industry has manifest its issues since the late 1970’s and will not be resolved until action to implement the Preliminary Specification is taken. If you believe that I am predicting demise on the basis of some apocalyptic theory then that’s fine, you can stop reading. If you believe that I am trying to solve an issue then we can continue.

If you believe that the commodity markets have rebalanced and the bureaucrats have fixed the problem, then there is nothing here for you either. To me these commodity markets appear to be capitulating. Going through the process of having major participants leave the industry as there is nothing for them. Abundant losses, no discussion about the issues and no thought that there is a problem and certainly no action to resolve the problem. These have a negative impact on people’s confidence. So yes I’m in no way optimistic about where the price of oil and gas will be heading. Gas storage will be filled this summer leading to another major step downward in pricing. Oil has Iran and Saudi Arabia competing for new customers and new demand from current customers to the tune of 4 million barrels per day. Bureaucrats, I think, have been effective in running up oil and gas prices in the short term to provide a narrative that offsets the losses they’ve incurred. Losses that in many cases wipe out the entire capital base of the producer. If that doesn’t scream at you, nothing will. Now that the agm season is over, we’ll see if the commodity prices normalize.

It is these low commodity prices that people believe is the issue. I would suggest that it’s a symptom of the larger issue addressed by the Preliminary Specification. That being, the accounting in oil and gas makes it appear to be a profitable industry because none of the actual costs are being recognized. This keeps an unprofitable and unviable industry continuing on the basis of the chronic and continual investment of capital from investors and banks. The comprehensive and continued support of producers capital programs, when continued, make the industry appear a viable going concern. Take away the investment dollars and you have a cash starved beast that can’t maintain its asset base, which is marketed as an advantage under the narrative of “market rebalancing.”

What is particularly disappointing to me is that this has gone on for so long it’s the culture of the industry. The entire industry has been raised, educated and trained on this basis and never questioned if it was a valid, functioning business model. When the producers continue to report that they’re profitable. Despite what may or may not have occurred within the producer firm. It attracts more investment. And in the case of oil and gas, more investment than the industry can handle which has lead to overproduction in the commodities. We saw this phenomenon play itself out for almost two decades in the 1980’s and 1990’s when oil prices were too low. Nothing was done, no one questioned the actions of the producers, it was just “oh woah is me,” another bad year has passed. And muddling through continued. That’s not how you operate a business and in 1991 I set out to do something about it and today that something is the Preliminary Specification.

The other day I unilaterally declared that I had the credibility going forward to fix the issues in the marketplace. This caused some laughter and commentary from my friends the bureaucrats who feel buoyant now that oil prices have recovered to as much $50! I would warn the bureaucrats not to declare anything too prematurely. The credibility that I claimed was with the investors who have not necessarily been inspired by their management. If all you’re providing them is a mirror image of the commodities activities, both up and down. Followed by a wholesale destruction of the firm in the long run. Then I would be more concerned about your credibility in that sense, rather than your momentary ability to predict an upswing in a commodities price. These problems are not solved. They aren’t accepted as being a problem and the industry has rejected the thinking contained within the Preliminary Specification by not yet adopting it. This is due to the self serving reasons that the Preliminary Specification disintermediates the bureaucrats. We are the Uber, and they are the taxi commissions. And therefore, maybe I too have misdiagnosed what really ails the oil and gas industry.

The Preliminary Specification and user community provides the oil and gas producer with the most dynamic, innovative, profitable and successful means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

This is All About Leadership

We are at an inflection point in the oil and gas industry. If you believe that “market rebalancing” will have a remarkable effect on commodity prices, and the good times are just around the corner then there’s nothing here for you at People, Ideas & Objects. This is the point in time when those that will be leading the industry in its next iteration stand up and say that “this” is no longer good enough. It comes down to the point of what do you believe. Are we in a minor disruption that will clear itself, or is this a wholesale upheaval of the industry. One that requires action by many people to clear out the stale and non-functioning elements of the industry. Creative destruction at its finest hour.

If you’ve been reading this blog for a while you know I appreciate the work of the oil and gas bureaucrats. I won’t go into their many deficiencies but will point you to this blog's long history on the topic. I’ll assume instead that you are that leader who is tired of the status quo, who is concerned about the state of the industry and the lack of action by the bureaucrats. If you are, this is the place you want to be. We have 5,000 man years of work ahead of us in developing the Preliminary Specification and moving the industry onto a commercial footing. And that is just the software development portion of the task that we are undertaking. Leadership everywhere and at all levels of the industry is going to be demanded to fix “this.”

The other day we talked about the Leadership teams within People, Ideas & Objects and our user community. These are the leadership positions that are necessary for just the software development, and only those that can be clearly identified at this time. There will be many more as we proceed. Those members of the user community, the 3,000 people we’re looking to provide our software developers with the precise details of how it is the oil and gas industry operates. These are leadership positions as well. The user community member will have to know what it is that is necessary to make the Material Balance Report everything that it could possibly be. For example. And have the resources within the industry to verify that information. Our user community is the critical element of our softwares ultimate quality. Their leadership will be something that we will be looking for them to provide.

The secondary role the user community member fills is that of the principle in the organization that will be developed to provide the People, Ideas & Objects software and that organization's services to the producers. Our “service providers” will be established by the user community members who will own and operate them. They will be the ones that lead these organizations and develop the service based organizations that the producers will need in the new industry configuration that is required to provide our price maker strategy. Recall the service providers will be providing the entire oil and gas industry, as their client base, the process management of one individual process. This may seem like an onerous data driven task that would be monotonous and boring to undertake. I disagree, this will be a dynamic and exhilarating place to work. The competitive advantages of the service providers are their automation, specialization and division of labor. With the access that the service providers principle, the user community member, has to People, Ideas & Objects software development capabilities. The service providers will be able to iterate and constantly improve the software they use, and their service offering to the producers, both in terms of their speed and quality. Service providers will undertake all of the industries administrative and accounting capabilities. There is movement away from each producer developing their own similar, redundant administrative and accounting capabilities that are not shareable or usable outside the producer firm. It is this overhead that is also inhibiting profitability in the industry.

Again we have only touched on the leadership that will be necessary in the software and services areas as a result of the changes that will be instituted by the Preliminary Specification. The producers themselves will be going through a process of rapid change as well. Leadership will be needed to see them through the changes that will be made through this software and service development process. A leadership team to match the activities occurring in the People, Ideas and Objects software development, our user community and service providers. Investors and bankers will be taking a different attitude towards investing in oil and gas. It will be a while before they come back. That is, they will not be back until we can prove that the industry is consistently profitable based on a detailed, actual accounting. An accounting that looks at the performance of the management, not an accounting that tries to emulate the valuation of the company. Only then will they return. Therefore additional leadership needs will have to be met within the producer firms with an understanding that the old guard will be gone and the new ways will have to have new corporate leadership.

The Preliminary Specification and user community provides the oil and gas producer with the most dynamic, innovative, profitable and successful means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here.

Memorial Day Holiday

No Posting Today

Third Friday Off

Leadership Roles

In addition to the CFO position that we need to fill, People, Ideas & Objects is developing the following Leadership Teams. These teams will be permanent full and part time members of People, Ideas & Objects and the user community, a separate entity. Ownership of the user community is held by People, Ideas & Objects but will have its own Leadership Team. This is to accommodate the unique characteristics of the user community and ensure that the focus remains on providing the producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Members of these Leadership Teams will be those that can make a difference in the industry, who see this as an opportunity to make the changes that are necessary to reset the industry on an appropriate commercial footing. People who are interested in a challenge and are not afraid to jump in.

In terms of the needs for People, Ideas & Objects we are looking for two people. The CFO which we mentioned the other day. And the President & COO. These two positions are based in Houston and report to me. The President & COO will be wholly responsible for the software developments. If either of these positions interest you please contact me here. These are the key elements of the Leadership Team of People, Ideas & Objects. There will be more positions open as the funds begin to flow. Be sure to keep up to date here.

The user community has been our priority for the past number of years. Our biggest impediment to the development of the Preliminary Specification is getting the ideas contained within the specification into the heads of the approximately 3,000 members of the user community. We have been pushing the Preliminary Specification out to the industry at large for the past two and half years since its publication. And we are generally unaware of where we are exactly in terms of achieving that number. It is important to note that we will not start developing software until the user community in its full form is in place. User community based software developments are the key to quality and that is the only basis that we are approaching the development of the Preliminary Specification. I can assure you that many people are reading the Preliminary Specification each and every day. It's important to get these ideas in the heads of the user community so that they can think on this new basis and ensure that they implement their piece of the system based on this new, fundamentally different understanding of using the Joint Operating Committee.

The Leadership Team of the user community consists of a large team of people who will be involved. I will be sitting as the Chairman of the organization, and there will be a board of four other directors. In addition there will be a CEO, CFO, and COO. These are the standard fare positions that will undertake their standard roles within this organization. Please note they are separate from the software development team. They are exclusively concerned with the process and functionality of the applications of People, Ideas & Objects. Please read the user community vision if you haven’t. To understand how this user community organization is uniquely structured within the oil and gas industry. A structure that ensures it has the power and control over the Intellectual Property that makes up the applications they are responsible for.

The last set of members in the user community Leadership Team are the Product Owners. In an agile development team a product owner is part of the software development team. They are responsible for the product and will be required to prioritize the software teams developments. Funnelling the user communities contributions into a coherent and usable application will be part of their responsibilities. We are making these Product Owners key parts of the user community Leadership Team. We have allocated a section in our budget for these individuals with healthy compensation, administrative support and a discretionary budget. We are looking for a total of 25 product owners to join our team. One for each module of the Preliminary Specification. The remainder are allocated to specific areas such as the user interface, mobile, data model, etc. As with all of the members of the Leadership Team, their background will be in oil and gas with a strong aptitude towards technology, augmented with some post secondary education in Information Technology.

#!/bin/sh is the starter's pistol for everyone to begin the competition. The industry needs these positions filled and people to start working and organizing the solution for the industry. I am working on the money and you’ll have to take it on faith that the producers will act. What choice do they have? Bankruptcy. Therefore it’s up to us. This will be a difficult task and there is no certainty of success. We will not fail because we can not fail. The industry would be out of options if we did fail.

The Preliminary Specification and user community provides the oil and gas producer with the most dynamic, innovative, profitable and successful means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

More Bureaucratic Abuse

Producers actions in these next few months will be the critical difference to their success or failure as an organization. Sitting around praying for “market rebalancing” will be the most effective way to achieve their demise. Pretending that they’re a viable going concern and continuing to fleece their banker and investors for more capital isn’t going to work anymore. At the same time bureaucrats will have to find that cash from somewhere. As the banks put the brakes on realizing the proceeds of any material transaction, their only source of cash is production. Which of course is the only source of cash anywhere in the industry. Which of course leads to further declines in the prices of the commodities due to further overproduction. We’ve seen this play out a few times now. What is it that bureaucrats think will change this time? They need to act now. People will be looking back to this time to see what they’ve been doing to solve these issues. If they find the producer has been hunkering down waiting for the “market to rebalance” that producers bureaucrats might find the office taking on a streetscape like appearance.

What producers need to do instead is subscribe to the development of the Preliminary Specification. They’ll need some money to do this so they’ll have to find some to make the necessary commitment. To determine their share they’ll need to calculate our budget times the amount of their deliverability, in relation to the total deliverability of oil and gas for North America. That share of our costs will be their upfront commitment to this development. No one said this was going to be easy. The scope and scale of this problem demands that a solution be provided. The upside is that they might be able to fend off any attempts to run them out of the business by the bankers and investors. Showing them that they have a plan as to how to deal with the situation might make the investors and bankers feel more comfortable than they do now. Secondly, the upside of doing this, that is our value proposition is in the range of $25.7 to $45.7 trillion over the next 25 years. This as a result of our price maker strategy and the ability of the industry to begin to return the capital that’s invested in it. Establishing the industry on the basis of the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Making it a commercial enterprise not this daycare inspired activity exercise.

I’ll bet that stung a bit. Take a critical look at the industry today. The present value of the North American industry is worthless. Nothing of value is being generated by it as a commercial business. Its activity for the sake of activity. Doing rather thinking. Is this the best that the industry can do? Can we take what we have today and rise to the challenge of meeting the needs of our investors and consumers over the next 25 years? Not on the basis of this lot. And not on the basis of kneeling down and praying for the “market to rebalance.” It’s time to shape up and start doing the job that has been entrusted to the industry. Take a position; lead, follow or get the hell out of the way.

Why did we have to take it to this level of destruction? That is the question that I guess we’ll never know. It seems human nature to want to keep trying the old ways until it's obvious they no longer work. The point is that we can start to focus on the solution now and begin to make the changes that are going to turn the oil and gas industry into the dynamic, innovative, accountable and profitable oil and gas industry that it needs to be in the long run.

The Preliminary Specification and user community provides the oil and gas producer with the most dynamic, innovative, profitable and successful means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

Wanted, Our CFO

In anticipation that we are about to begin the process of building the Preliminary Specification. I am announcing today that we are seeking our first employee. Our CFO. We are looking for a world class CFO that can fill the position that is needed within our organization and will provide for the needs of the oil and gas producers, our user community and the service providers. As a startup there will be much to do for this individual. That pretty much defines the position, we need everything and have nothing. Those that are interested should email me here.

In follow up to our Friday post in which we discussed the demise of the credibility of the oil and gas producers. How it has been spent with the investment community as a result of the bureaucrats self-serving ways and running the industry into the ground. I want to announce as well that the line forms to the right. That is to say, as I noted in last Friday’s post, that to reestablish yourself as a profitable oil and gas producer is the credibility that needs to be earned. Therefore for oil and gas producers to earn that credibility and to prove that they are focused on profits, will be achieved by subscribing to the software development of the Preliminary Specification.

Continuation of the status quo is always an option. However, just as with ideas, choices have consequences. Going it alone will possibly enable the bureaucrats to make it through without the support of the banking and investment community. That's a tough road to hoe. The easy route would be to pay the subscription for our budget and, here’s the other requirement, actively participate in the developments. The broad scope of industry understanding needs to be captured in the software that we are developing. That is not going to happen without the user community being in the leadership role in terms of how these applications function. The user community will need the producers participation for a variety of reasons to ensure a quality of the final product and to ensure that it meets the producers end use needs. There is no solution that is going to meet your needs without your blood, sweat and tears on the floor. Paying the bill for our budget is the first step and should be representative of the understanding of the significant commitment that you as a producer are undertaking to ensure that your needs are effectively communicated and captured in the software. If this initiative fails don’t look to me or the user community, failure will be 100% attributable to poor producer participation and producers do not have the option of failure.

If you're still sceptical that I can raise your sinking boat out of the water. Talk to your bankers and talk to your investors. They have some skin in the game. They have no interest in your organization failing. If you told them that you had an initiative that you were participating in that would return your firm to profitability, has a price maker strategy, and that you needed their support to turn your producer firm around. The skies might turn and a little less black and bit more blue. What do you have to gain.

The Preliminary Specification and user community provides the oil and gas producer with the most dynamic, innovative, profitable and successful means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

Victoria Day in Canada

No posting today.