Season's End
If you believe that the commodity markets have rebalanced and the bureaucrats have fixed the problem, then there is nothing here for you either. To me these commodity markets appear to be capitulating. Going through the process of having major participants leave the industry as there is nothing for them. Abundant losses, no discussion about the issues and no thought that there is a problem and certainly no action to resolve the problem. These have a negative impact on people’s confidence. So yes I’m in no way optimistic about where the price of oil and gas will be heading. Gas storage will be filled this summer leading to another major step downward in pricing. Oil has Iran and Saudi Arabia competing for new customers and new demand from current customers to the tune of 4 million barrels per day. Bureaucrats, I think, have been effective in running up oil and gas prices in the short term to provide a narrative that offsets the losses they’ve incurred. Losses that in many cases wipe out the entire capital base of the producer. If that doesn’t scream at you, nothing will. Now that the agm season is over, we’ll see if the commodity prices normalize.
It is these low commodity prices that people believe is the issue. I would suggest that it’s a symptom of the larger issue addressed by the Preliminary Specification. That being, the accounting in oil and gas makes it appear to be a profitable industry because none of the actual costs are being recognized. This keeps an unprofitable and unviable industry continuing on the basis of the chronic and continual investment of capital from investors and banks. The comprehensive and continued support of producers capital programs, when continued, make the industry appear a viable going concern. Take away the investment dollars and you have a cash starved beast that can’t maintain its asset base, which is marketed as an advantage under the narrative of “market rebalancing.”
What is particularly disappointing to me is that this has gone on for so long it’s the culture of the industry. The entire industry has been raised, educated and trained on this basis and never questioned if it was a valid, functioning business model. When the producers continue to report that they’re profitable. Despite what may or may not have occurred within the producer firm. It attracts more investment. And in the case of oil and gas, more investment than the industry can handle which has lead to overproduction in the commodities. We saw this phenomenon play itself out for almost two decades in the 1980’s and 1990’s when oil prices were too low. Nothing was done, no one questioned the actions of the producers, it was just “oh woah is me,” another bad year has passed. And muddling through continued. That’s not how you operate a business and in 1991 I set out to do something about it and today that something is the Preliminary Specification.
The other day I unilaterally declared that I had the credibility going forward to fix the issues in the marketplace. This caused some laughter and commentary from my friends the bureaucrats who feel buoyant now that oil prices have recovered to as much $50! I would warn the bureaucrats not to declare anything too prematurely. The credibility that I claimed was with the investors who have not necessarily been inspired by their management. If all you’re providing them is a mirror image of the commodities activities, both up and down. Followed by a wholesale destruction of the firm in the long run. Then I would be more concerned about your credibility in that sense, rather than your momentary ability to predict an upswing in a commodities price. These problems are not solved. They aren’t accepted as being a problem and the industry has rejected the thinking contained within the Preliminary Specification by not yet adopting it. This is due to the self serving reasons that the Preliminary Specification disintermediates the bureaucrats. We are the Uber, and they are the taxi commissions. And therefore, maybe I too have misdiagnosed what really ails the oil and gas industry.
The Preliminary Specification and user community provides the oil and gas producer with the most dynamic, innovative, profitable and successful means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don’t forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here.