And More Miscellaneous Items

Shell President comments

The President of Shell was on Bloomberg last week with Betty Lu to speak about some of the things that they were working on. He made an interesting comment about her comment that Shell’s production was actually lower ten out of the last twelve years. He stated, and I’m paraphrasing here. “That we are no longer necessarily concerned with our production volumes, as much as we are focused on the value that we provide.”

Bureaucrats should take note of this. Your days are going to be ending very soon. When presidents of major producers start talking in this fashion it might be time to start thinking about strapping that parachute on.

$44 billion in debt and equity financing in the first quarter

Bloomberg was also reporting that there were $44 billion in debt and equity financing in oil and gas in the first quarter of 2015. This shouldn't surprise anyone when you consider the length of time that the EU has been in negotiations with Greece. With no one being able to invest in Greece the stupid money has to go somewhere.

Bloomberg also noted that the proverbial shoe was about to drop on producers with the expiration of $90 hedging contracts. The producers apparently were able to get past their semiannual debt reviews with their banks because the hedges were still in play in the first half of the year. Now that they are expiring the “real pain” may begin to be felt by the industry. Which is probably the case as it was also noted that the rig count was up last week!

Oracle vs. Google

Last week saw the U.S. Supreme Court hand down their annual decisions. One decision that they didn't make was on Google’s appeal in the case of Oracle vs. Google. Google had lost an appeal by Oracle a few years ago which Google appealed to the Supreme Court. Since the Supreme Court won't look at it, and now with no further appeals, they will have to pay Oracle and settle the case.

This is a significant moment for software developers. Many, including Google, thought that the code they wrote was not necessarily subject to copyright provisions. That may be a simplification of Google’s claim. It is however, not a simplification of the way in which the Supreme Court obviously sees it. They feel that copyright does cover the software code and there is nothing in the case for them to see.

What Google did is they took the programming language Java, made some minor modifications to it, and called it Android. Now they have to pay Oracle for this abuse, the award was in the billions, and Google will have to license Java from Oracle. Good luck with that negotiation.

Stanford and MIT on avatars

One of the more controversial elements of the Preliminary Specification is the Marketplace Interface contained within our Petroleum Lease, Financial and Resource Marketplace modules. This enables people to collaborate through the use of avatars in a virtual world. It is noted in a Wall Street Journal article that Stanford and MIT are using the same technologies that we are to provide their business students with the ability to collaborate through the use of avatars.

All of these miscellaneous elements that I have noted in the past two days. Are providing our user community with the facts that People, Ideas & Objects, our user community and the service providers time has come. If we could have our budget funded we could begin the process of building the Preliminary Specification, the user community and service provides and build industry real value by providing the oil and gas producers with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations.

The Preliminary Specification and user community provides the oil and gas producer with the most dynamic, innovative, profitable and successful means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don't forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

Some Miscellaneous Items

A Subdued Stampede

The Stampede in Calgary is as much of a corporate event as it is a tourist attraction. We welcome the tourists each year to what we call the “greatest outdoor show on earth.” And as a visitor, I can only assume they have a good time. The town transforms itself into one party city. I for one have looked upon Stampede as a time to let loose and enjoy the weather and the festivities. This tradition has been upheld throughout the city since the beginning of time. Well over the past 100 years, our big flood of a few years ago, gave it the appropriately named “come hell or high water” as the theme. That flood was the countries biggest natural disaster, happening one week before the big event, and it didn't slow this town down. Apparently this year we will witness what does slow the Stampede down.

Cancellation of corporate events is the name of the game in town. It would seem the oil and gas industry wants to send a message to the new government that they are not happy with their plans for a revised tax and royalty regime. Since when did the bureaucrats concern themselves about the business of the oil and gas business? Optics? It doesn't look good to be partying so hard when the people need to be told that their choice in government doesn’t sit with them. So instead of partying, everyone will be present at their desks for the entire Stampede. No corporate breakfasts or festivities. That'll send the message.

Its one thing to sit down and make representation about how the industry is having difficulties financially. To engage the government to advise them and educate them about the industry. The New Democrats are now running a $40 billion government with many of the cabinet ministers never being responsible for much more than their local communities budget. A little help and encouragement might have been the appropriate direction. Particularly their leader Rachel Notley is of fine pedigree and seems capable and approachable. These bureaucrats however have fallen into their classic pattern of attack and bully to make it as difficult for everyone, and the bureaucrats importance is the key and only issue.

These bureaucrats don't concern themselves with the business unless they can exercise some real public relations value out of the issue. By ramping down the Stampede festivities they attempt to destroy an annual tradition so that they can look good in the eyes of, well I don't know who will buy in to the BS, or who will give them credit for being prudent about the business. If they were really concerned about the business they would be focused on our $45.7 trillion value proposition over the next 25 years and how they can make that real. Not in punishing everyone during Stampede week.

The Cloud Paradigm

Amongst our distinct competitive advantages, the cloud provides us with much value over the traditional decentralized IT infrastructure. Today, each producer is tasked with the needs of developing, maintaining and operating their organization with the IT resources afforded by their budgets. This may have been easier in the past when the organization was less dependent on IT, and when the IT infrastructure was less robust and mature. Now with so much dependent on these technologies the ability and capability to have the skills, talent and resources housed within the producer organization are exceeding the budgets that are provided to these departments. None of this activity is within the domain of a producer's competitive advantage of their earth science and engineering capabilities, or land and asset base.

Maybe the best example of this is in the area of security. Where cyber security has become the issue of the day and is occupying many hours and days within a producer firm. Each producer is having to spend this time and effort to ensure the firm's data and resources remain secure. Each producer is undertaking the same tasks and activities to ensure their systems are safe. With the cloud, or more specifically with People, Ideas & Objects, producers will be able to rely on the efforts of our software developers, our user community and the service providers to provide this security. By aggregating the resources of the industry we are able to focus our budget on items such as cyber security and devote more resources to the issue than what a producer can. This centralization theme works most effectively in our key competitive advantage of providing the oil and gas industry with a software development capability for the long term. A capability that will enable changes to be made in the business model when and if they are required.

The Preliminary Specification and user community provides the oil and gas producer with the most dynamic, innovative, profitable and successful means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don't forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

No Posting Today

In recognition of the U.S. Independence Day.

No Post Today

Sandwiched between two stat holidays seems like a good time take another day off. 

No Post Today

In recognition of the Canada Day Holiday.

You Thought I Was Bad

I frequently make the claim that our value proposition. Which is based on a comparison of our business model vs. the status quo bureaucracy. Provides the oil and gas industry with an additional $25.7 to $45.7 trillion in incremental value over the next 25 years. Some people may find this to be too much of a difference to be valid. I say look at the facts of how our value proposition is calculated, and the sorry state of affairs that the oil and gas industry is in. Then you will see that this value is available by implementing the Preliminary Specification in a timely manner.

Even my claims are now being out done by none other than the number one consulting firm in the world. McKinsey Consulting are claiming in an article that the Internet of Things (IoT) will generate $4 to $11 trillion in value by the year 2025. That’s annually! Which makes my $1.0  to $1.8 trillion per year look pretty small in comparison. Its good to have such prestigious company in the same nuthouse that I occupy. Here’s what they had to say.

The Internet of Things—sensors and actuators connected by networks to computing systems—has received enormous attention over the past five years. A new McKinsey Global Institute report, The Internet of Things: Mapping the value beyond the hype, attempts to determine exactly how IoT technology can create real economic value. Our central finding is that the hype may actually understate the full potential—but that capturing it will require an understanding of where real value can be created and a successful effort to address a set of systems issues, including interoperability.

To get a broader view of the IoT’s potential benefits and challenges across the global economy, we analyzed more than 150 use cases, ranging from people whose devices monitor health and wellness to manufacturers that utilize sensors to optimize the maintenance of equipment and protect the safety of workers. Our bottom-up analysis for the applications we size estimates that the IoT has a total potential economic impact of $3.9 trillion to $11.1 trillion a year by 2025. At the top end, that level of value—including the consumer surplus—would be equivalent to about 11 percent of the world economy.

McKinsey are on the same wave length that I am in terms of the impact that the Internet is going to have on the business community. They are applying their analysis to all industries to come up with their much larger number. However the reasons that the value are being generated are the same. They note.

The digitization of machines, vehicles, and other elements of the physical world is a powerful idea. Even at this early stage, the IoT is starting to have a real impact by changing how goods are made and distributed, how products are serviced and refined, and how doctors and patients manage health and wellness. But capturing the full potential of IoT applications will require innovation in technologies and business models, as well as investment in new capabilities and talent. With policy actions to encourage interoperability, ensure security, and protect privacy and property rights, the Internet of Things can begin to reach its full potential—especially if leaders truly embrace data-driven decision making.

A little background into our name. In the late 1990’s Professor Paul Romer then of Stanford University came up with what has come to be known as “New Growth Theory” how economies grow in the 21st century. It used to be that if you wanted to grow the economy you should invest in financial capital, transportation or communications. These investments had the effect of enabling further growth in the economy. This theory has waned as the economy has become more advanced. Therefore a new theory for growth was needed. In essence Professor Paul Romer of New York University “New Growth Theory” is that you invest in People, Ideas & Things. I thought it would be worthwhile to adopt this as the name of the company and only converted the “things” to “objects” as we are object based software developers. Clearly this also ties in with the Internet of Things being a large part of Professor Paul Romer’s new growth theory. McKinsey now seem to be on to this as well. Here is Professor Romer’s concluding remarks in the Library of Economics and Liberty.

Only a failure of imagination, the same one that leads the man on the street to suppose that everything has already been invented, leads us to believe that all of the relevant institutions have been designed and that all of the policy levers have been found. For social scientists, every bit as much as for physical scientists, there are vast regions to explore and wonderful surprises to discover.

The Preliminary Specification and user community provides the oil and gas producer with the most dynamic, innovative, profitable and successful means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don't forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

Intellectual Property

There is nothing more important to the membership of the user community, People, Ideas & Objects, the service providers and of course myself than the topic of Intellectual Property. It is how we function and operate in the 21st century. Just as Jeff Immelt of General Electric states “that every industrial company will become a software company.” Every software company is an Intellectual Property company. Therefore we begin on the basis of that foundation as the key asset of People, Ideas & Objects. A license agreement between the firm and myself granting the firm certain rights and privileges in terms of the development of my Intellectual Property. I am the rightful owner of the copyright of the Preliminary Specification, this blog and many publications that came before it. Most particularly the May 2004 “Plurality should not be assumed without necessity” that determined the Joint Operating Committee is the key organizational construct of the dynamic, innovative and profitable oil and gas producer. It is these works that make up the Preliminary Specification and how the industry, producers, the user community, service providers and the service industry participants would operate in a dynamic, innovative and profitable manner.

It is through the strength of this Intellectual Property that I will be able to raise the budget for our software developments and the user community. These funds will then be used to build the derivative works of software and other information from the current Intellectual Property. This will be done by the software developers and user community participants who will be paid from our budget. It is their knowledge, information, skills and Intellectual Property that we are purchasing from them to form a unified and consistent base of Intellectual Property. This base will be used on an annual basis to raise the funds necessary to support the software development and user community on an ongoing basis.

Under the terms of the license that I have provided People, Ideas & Objects, all derivative works from the Intellectual Property, in terms of ownership flow back to me. People, Ideas & Objects only hold a commercial license. The user community and our software developers will be granted individual licenses from People, Ideas & Objects that enable them to prepare derivative works from the Intellectual Property. And they will release their ownership of those prepared works back, through the People, Ideas & Objects license, to me, where through all of the licenses they remain available to all of the members of the user community and our software developers to use and prepare derivative works from. If we did not do this we would end up with a situation where the Intellectual Property would be scattered across the industry and producers would be subject to numerous cross licensing requirements and multiple royalty payments to multiple owners of the Intellectual Property. By keeping the Intellectual Property together under ones ownership control these issues are rectified and we are able to build off the value generated by everyone. In the 21st century, I believe your work will require you to own some Intellectual Property, or to have a license to some Intellectual Property, or to be employed by someone who does in order to make a living. Without access to Intellectual Property you will not have the tools to earn a living in the future.

The service providers are comprised of the user community participants who are the principals who make up the service provider firm's that will be established to form this sub-industry. These service providers will also be licensed by People, Ideas & Objects in order to access the software they will use to provide the oil and gas producers with the services and software they will need to operate their businesses.

There have been many attempts by the bureaucrats to breach my Intellectual Property. On each occasion they were discovered and ultimately refuted. And each time that there was an attempt foiled it only made my Intellectual Property stronger. Now it stands alone and is the solution that is necessary for the oil and gas industry to get back on track to profitability. We will probably fool around and waste more time at the expense of the industry. But one thing I can assure the bureaucrats, I have only begun to fight to make this real.

The Preliminary Specification and user community provides the oil and gas producer with the most dynamic, innovative, profitable and successful means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don't forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

The False Narrative

I made the comment the other day that there has been a false narrative about the industry and its operations. That this narrative was being discussed in the press these past six months and I have noticed and been monitoring it. It may very well have been going on for much longer. These are some of the statements that I have noticed being made that seem to me to be self-serving and colorful.

Shale costs have been coming down from innovations and improvements in drilling. 

This little nugget holds one falsehood and one truth. The truth is evident from the falsehood. Once you have expended the costs in drilling a shale well, and have paid for these expenses they are assets under the current methodology. How then would these costs come down? Unless you never recognize the asset costs in your calculations. Then the fact that it used to cost $90 to produce shale and now only costs $55 shows that they only include the costs of operations and royalties, not capital or overhead.

The innovation and dynamic nature of the industry has production being shut-in and resumed on a constant basis, based on price. 

Not quite. You need the decentralized production model in order to do that. What the producers have today is the high throughput production model which demands full production to cover the costs of overhead. Most specifically the bureaucrats paycheck. Nothing has ever been shut-in due to the price being low, anywhere. The natural gas marketplace is all the evidence that is necessary to prove this falsehood. Shale gas has gone from 10 BCF a day in 2010 to about 42 BCF per day today. Remember the high throughput production model. This is not a dynamic industry. The Preliminary Specification wants to make it a dynamic industry and the bureaucrats in their desire to make what they are doing look good next to the Preliminary Specification will say anything.

We can make money at $55.00.

In many ways this is the same argument as the first falsehood listed here. There is a culture that is so ingrained within the industry that capital assets are sunk costs and they are not considered in current calculations. And therefore they never are. You can’t play the shell game unless everyone follows the same rules. And for oil and gas the rule is, don't mention the costs of the assets. And why would you, they never show up on the income statement anyway.

We are now one or two quarters away from the longest decline in oil prices ever. 

a.k.a. hold on a little longer, all will be well soon. Those that don't follow history are bound to repeat it. This is inconsistent with the history that I personally recall the industry having to experience. It’s also inconsistent with the time that the industry has experienced in terms of natural gas pricing. It’s been five years since the big declines started and they don't seem to want to stop. If you want to know what the future of the oil price is, look at natural gas prices. The fact that the bureaucrats are over producing and using the industry for their own personal gain is a common theme that I have been suggesting here.

Crickets

Those being the solutions, and the discussions of any difficulties or problems that the industry is currently faced with. Nothing, not a word. I can't remember the last time things were so peachy. I think the bureaucrats should give themselves a mid year bonus for managing the industry so well.

Big Data

I’m on record as stating that anyone that tries to sell you a big data solution should have you sprinting in the opposite direction. They are selling you technology you don't need and have no idea what your business involves. If big data is the solution to the shale problem, which I have heard specifically, that only means they will have a real solution in a few decades.

Buy Oil Stocks

All the pain has been experienced in the oils so far. You need to buy these companies while they're still cheap. I don’t give stock advice, but this seems to be irrational.

Lift the export ban

This is what Harold Hamm Chairman and CEO of Continental Resources said in the Wall Street Journal.

If America’s interest is stability of supply, peace and prosperity, then our current policy doesn’t work. There isn't a more urgent issue affecting the future of our nation and the world than lifting the ban on U.S. oil exports.

Lifting the export ban may help in bringing the differential to Brent Crude prices down. However, refiners are free to export refined products. Trading refined products exports for crude exports seems like a bad business idea to me. Refiners generate value do they not? And it's just one big market is it not? If the crude is exported it still counts in the same 93 million barrels of oil produced every day.

The only discussion and solutions to the overproduction and unprofitability of the producers is what you'll read here in this blog. People need to focus on the primary areas of this industry before it’s too late to do anything about these issues.

The Preliminary Specification and user community provides the oil and gas producer with the most dynamic, innovative, profitable and successful means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don't forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here.

Choice is a Good Thing

The choice that we provide the oil and gas industry could not be greater. On the one hand you have the status quo bureaucracy who are unable and unwilling to address any of the present or future issues within the industry. They are at the same time leaving any future business opportunities to whither on the vine. An industry where the overproduction and lack of profitability will lead to both future capacity and capability issues. With the Preliminary Specification you have the opposite. A prospective method and business model of how the industry could operate in the 21st century. A system, software development capability, user community and service providers who are focused on the dynamic, innovative and profitable oil and gas producer.

I suggested in my post before taking any time off that maybe the Preliminary Specification was too radical or too extensive of surgery to undertake by the industry. When you're tired and you need a rest you might say some things that you'll later regret. The Preliminary Specification is radical and extensive surgery for the industry to undertake. And it is the right treatment to cure what ails it. Nothing less is what the patient needs in order to heal and prosper in the 21st century. Does anyone believe that the bureaucracy has the legs to carry us much further?

The differences between this choice are significant. As a result of the differences, our value proposition is in the trillions of dollars. The present value of the incremental profits over the next 25 years are calculated to be $5.7 trillion. As a result of our ability to enable the producer price making strategy and the way that assets are capitalized. Capital is included in our pricing calculations. And as a result investors will see their capital returned to them over the next 25 years. So if the amount of capital is $20 or $40 trillion that needs to be spent to meet the consumer demands. It will be $20 or $40 trillion that will be returned to the investors with their profits. This is our value proposition. Depending on the amount being spent in capital expenditures in the next 25 years. We will provide incremental value of $25.7 to $45.7 trillion to the investors in this industry.

The primary way in which we do this is through the decentralized production model. Turning the oil and gas producer into a price maker and leaving the price taker strategy behind. By stripping down the prototypical producer to the C class executives, the earth science and engineering resources, some land and legal, and support staff. The remainder of the firm's resources are reallocated to service providers who are focused on one administrative or accounting process, or subprocess and will use the entire industry as their client base. It will be the producers who focus on their competitive advantages of their earth science and engineering capabilities, and their land and asset base. The service providers will focus on their key competitive advantages of specialization, the division of labor, automation and standardization. What is critical to this redesign is that each Joint Operating Committee, not the producer, will be charged for the administrative and accounting overhead charges from the service providers.

Then when the price of the commodity dips below what is necessary for that property to report a profit. A profit based on the revenues less royalties, operating costs, overhead and an allocation of capital. Note we have converted all of these costs into variable costs. Then that property would be shut-in in order for it to report a null operation. No profit and no loss either. That is because, while the property is shut-in, the service providers will have no activity in their systems to incur any of the service provider's processes for that month and there will be no billing for any administrative or accounting overhead. It is in this way that the marketplace has the marginal barrel of oil or natural gas removed from the market, the individual properties reserves are saved for the day when commodity prices are higher and can therefore earn a profit, and the producer reports the highest profits based on the commodity prices that are available. With the marginal production being removed from the marketplace, there will be shallower and shorter declines in the commodity markets prices.

There are many other ways in which we provide value to the dynamic, innovative and profitable oil and gas producer. The bureaucracy can't and won't, do this. It is physically impossible for them to make this level and scope of change. It has to come from the outside like People, Ideas & Objects, our user community and the service providers are providing. Only in that way can these changes be implemented.

The Preliminary Specification and user community provides the oil and gas producer with the most dynamic, innovative, profitable and successful means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don't forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here. 

Why the Focus on Profits?

It is our focus, our claim, our desire and everything that we do at People, Ideas & Objects, the user community and service providers to provide the oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. Is this appropriate? Should we be focused on other goals and objectives other than that dirty word profits. It would seem inconsistent in this day and age that we should be focused on profits. The world seems otherwise occupied on other pursuits like fairness and equity, and the oil and gas industry should follow those. I disagree, focusing on profits is the appropriate and only thing that we need to be doing in oil and gas. And that is why we will continue on this path, always.

To whose benefit does the development of an industry that focuses on profits provide. Simply everyones. And by that you can include everyone. The consumer, the investor, the employee of the producer, members of the service industry, governments, society and anyone who doesn't clearly fall within any of those groups. When producers earn profits they provide for the employees of the producer and those of the service providers that they use. This gives these people jobs and resources that enable them to fulfill their lives. They also pay a lot in taxes to their local, state and federal governments. Additionally new employees are hired to provide further growth and benefits to the overall economy.

Producers can take the profits that they earn, pay taxes, pay off debts, pay dividends to their shareholders and investors, and further invest in the business. Banks are then able to loan money to other borrowers and investors can invest in other businesses. Government, state and freehold royalties are paid to those leaseholders who are entitled to those payments. Producers can also invest in more innovative and productive areas of the production process making the total cost of the exploration and production process less costly. Society benefits by having a competitive producer environment, a healthy economy, and balanced government budgets.

In contrast today, what we have is a sink hole. Where money goes in and nothing comes out. Unless you count the benefits accruing to the bureaucratic class as a benefit to anyone other than a bureaucrat. Investors have been “building the business” in oil and gas for the past number of decades waiting for the day in which “things” will turn around and be prosperous. It sure doesn’t look to me like they can expect anything positive to come from this industry in the next decade.

Employees are told to deal with the situation as it is today or lose their job. Service industry providers are told to cut their prices drastically or have no business at all. Investors are told maybe next year. Governments are told that they need to continue to support the business because it is so important to them. In essence everyone is threatened and told to do with what you have and don’t mention anything about the overproduction.

We can turn this around. Where the oil and gas producer is provided with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations by developing and implementing the Preliminary Specification, creating the user community and the service providers. That way trillions of dollars will be added to the bottom line of the producers and then achieve the type of industry that is self sustaining and provides the consumer with the reliable and affordable energy that they deserve. Let's dump these bureaucrats and replace them by funding our budget.

The Preliminary Specification and user community provides the oil and gas producer with the most dynamic, innovative, profitable and successful means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don't forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here.