Bureaucrats Win!
I’m willing to concede that we lost this battle, however the war still needs to be fought. The book value of the producers is so bloated by the asset costs of the properties that the producers don't recognize any of the real costs of capital in the calculations of profits. In a normal business their retained earnings would be as bloated as their assets were. In the case of oil and gas producers they don't have any retained earnings and their bloated assets are therefore offset by investor money and debt. As long as the bureaucrat has a source of capital to continue their escapades they will continue on building their elaborate cabins in the mountains. The problem they have is that they have been living off junk bonds as their source of capital and there isn't any readily apparent form of capital after that. The bureaucrats ability to win these battles is diminishing quickly. The time for them to exit may soon be upon them.
Much of what I read and heard in the business market about the situation in oil and gas this past half year was a well orchestrated discussion of how the business would be in the future. We'll talk more about these points on Wednesday of this week. Let's assume for the moment that what I am stating is true. That producers put a shine on the business that is not consistent with the facts. At the same time I was “selling my book,” that change was needed in order to deal with some serious issues. I don't think, that is to say, it should not be assumed by the bureaucrat that this sales job of theirs necessarily won over the powers that be. There are two opposing points of view on how to manage the industry. I think it is reasonable to state that People, Ideas & Objects Preliminary Specification and the bureaucrats “corporate model” are both being evaluated in the current market. One of the key differences between the two alternative models in the industry is that I can back my model up.
Recently OPEC met and resolved to continue with their status quo. If you dig down deep into their logic, for them to cut production requires them to determine which customers to tell to take a hike. Once a customer is forced to change their oil supplier it is nearly impossible for them to make the change back again. Why would that customer change? Therefore OPEC is doing what is in the best interests of their customers and ensuring that they keep those customers for as long as they can. Sounds like a pretty good strategy for OPEC to pursue. What is the shale producers strategy? We'll be discussing this more in the weeks and months to come. Other than deceiving their shareholders and bondholders, it is to lose money. Which is a pretty bad strategy. In oil you have 5 million barrels of shale production dictating the price of 93 million barrels of oil because you have some bureaucrats who are more interested in building out the cabin. In other words they just don't give a damn.
Let the evaluation of these alternative business models begin. Both methods have put their ideas and strategies on record. Just make sure that when you are evaluating these methods you are getting the truth from the protagonists. And be careful, there’s been a lot of fudge coming from one side.
The Preliminary Specification and user community provides the oil and gas producer with the most dynamic, innovative, profitable and successful means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don't forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here.