Where Will Prices Head Now?
Which brings up the concern we should have for oil prices. Everyone believes that producers will soon curtail production in order to keep the prices from declining further. Oil storage is about to reach capacity which would put a limit on the ability of the market to absorb production. The inability to absorb the oil production would affect the prices in very negative ways. I think these past few months will lead the oil and gas producers to think back to these times as the best of times.
Surely the producers will realize the overproduction is the issue with respect to oil prices? Well they haven't learned that overproduction is the issue with natural gas prices. And that has seen almost six years of pricing that doesn’t support profitable operations. What will change and cause the producers to see the light now and curtail their oil production? Nothing. The only thing that will cause them to change would be a change in the business model to the Preliminary Specification with its decentralized production model or the exhaustion of the shale reserves. Remember bureaucracies can’t, won’t, don’t and will not ever change.
And that is the point. The Saudis understand well the characteristic of the oil shales performance. Unlike the natural gas reserves of the shale formations, which will last for decades or a half century. The oil shale reserves will only last about a decade. At which time the Saudi’s will be able to swing back into action and become the swing producer once again. Unless the high cost producer, being the shale oil producers, learn to allocate production based on profitability, a lesson that they have refused to learn in the natural gas side of the business, the next decade of oil prices will remain depressed. The Saudi’s have stated clearly that they believe that the high cost oil producers should not push out their low cost oil from their market share position. From a business point of view the Saudi’s position is 100% defensible and the shale oil producers position is 100% certifiable.
And so it is that we will take one more downward step in terms of the natural gas prices this spring, with oil following not far behind. How much pain can these bureaucrats really create for themselves and their shareholders. What we do know is that neither of those two groups will do anything about the losses that are piling up in the industry. It is deemed to be acceptable for the industry to be losing money as there is nothing that anyone can do about it. This lack of imagination will catch up to them soon and the realization that the industry has accumulated too large of losses to sustain operations will one day occur. And it will be at that time that those that have the foresight to disintermediate a dying industry will be able to come in and scoop up the value from these dinosaurs. And the fact is that day is not as far away as it seems.
The Preliminary Specification and user community provides the oil and gas producer with the most dynamic, innovative, profitable and successful means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don't forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here.