"Its Just a Flesh Wound"
What happened on Tuesday was the Saudis began discounting the oil that they sold into the U.S. marketplace. This was in contrast to price increases that were made in the rest of the world. Isolating the U.S. market, and I think specifically the shale producers. Making it unquestionably the shale producers that are the focus of the Saudis concerns regarding the global overproduction of oil. That if the shale producers in the U.S. want to produce at capacity, then the Saudis will produce at capacity, as will the whole of Opec. That is the message that was sent on Tuesday.
On Wednesday the producers responded in a consistent fashion. In a Bloomberg Businessweek article. Saying more or less that “Its just a flesh wound” is not far off from their actual comments. Here is a quote from the Businessweek article.
Executives at several large U.S. shale producers, including Chesapeake and EOG Resources Inc. (EOG:US), have vowed to maintain -- and even raise -- production as they reported earnings this week. They say their success in bringing down costs means they can make money even if prices slump further.
Its obvious to me that the Saudis are playing the long game and the shale producers are playing the short game. This is how I see the situation playing out in the next few quarters. First of all the oil prices are trading on rumor and innuendo. There is no stated policy at this time by anyone in the marketplace. Once there is a stated policy the market will move to reflect that policy. Opec is meeting on November 27, 2014. Which very interestingly happens to be three days after the Americans announce their negotiations with Iran regarding nuclear weapons. What we might see is no change in the announced production quotas and no concern by Opec for the markets pricing. We might also see no date for another Opec meeting set. This will throw the bottom of the market open for a freefall. Finding the low of the oil price market within the 2014 year end period of time. Just about the time that the accountants will retrospectively be looking to value the reserves of the producers for their annual reports. Creating even larger losses for the producers.
Playing the short game when they should be playing the long game, the producers are falling into the Saudis hands here by making the foolish comments that they are making. The investors who are concerned at the losses that the producers have been creating in the gas side of the business, are now beginning the process of losing money on the oil side of the business as well. Investors have already had enough of the fiscal irresponsibility created by these bureaucrats. They don't need to increase, and by a substantial margin, their losses by these fools losing money on both the oil and gas sides of the business. The investors will be forced to act and within a short period of time to deal with the problem within the oil and gas bureaucracy. And that’s where we, the Preliminary Specification, the user community and service providers come in.
The Saudis are playing the long game and can do so for a significant period of time. They have almost one trillion U.S. dollars in reserves. An effective weapon when you consider the enemy is screaming at you with no arms and no legs.
The Preliminary Specification and user community provides the oil and gas producer with the most dynamic, innovative and profitable means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy. And don't forget to join our network on Twitter @piobiz anyone can contact me at 403-200-2302 or email here.