The Decentralized Production Model
In a world of decentralized production, most costs are variable costs; so, when variations or interruptions in product flow interfere with output, costs decline more or less in line with revenues. But when high-throughput production is accomplished by means of high-fixed-cost machinery and organization, variations and interruptions leave significant overheads uncovered. p.58
Recall in the Petroleum Lease Marketplace we have the “Marginal Production Threshold Interface” that enables the partners within a Joint Operating Committee to agree on a pricing point where production would be curtailed. We have also discussed in the Resource Marketplace module the use of the Production Accountant and other roles in terms of how the costs of those resources would be reduced to zero in the case of shut-in production. What we haven’t discussed in detail is the need to charge the Joint Operating Committee directly for the charges of the Production Accountants service provider. This will be a change as a result of using the Joint Operating Committee and the elimination of the “operator” designation for any one specific producer.
Many of these costs would have traditionally been incurred by the “operator” as administrative overhead; and were to be covered by the various provisions of calculating overhead allowances for the operator. These overhead allowances will be eliminated in the future as a result of using the Joint Operating Committee. These administrative and accounting costs may be incurred by any one of the producers in the Joint Operating Committee. Either directly by their staff or through a service provider. Either way they should be directly chargeable to the Joint Operating Committee. Costs such as production and revenue accounting, or partnership accounting in general is a cost of doing the business of the JOC. There would also be costs associated due to the administrative areas of the production and exploration activities done on the property.
What we have learned from our review of Professor Richard Langlois is that markets are the ideal situation in which to source the capabilities the producers need. That would be the case for these administrative roles as well. By hiring individuals in a dedicated fashion incurs the costs during the time production is shut-in. By hiring service providers the costs associated with these administrative duties would be reduced to zero when the production was shut-in. Attaining the “decentralized production” model in terms of the operating and administrative costs of the property.
As we noted in the transition to a “decentralized production” model, it would enable the innovative oil and gas producer to match the operational and overhead costs to any decline in revenues due to the shut-in of production. By using accounting and administrative service providers the various Joint Operating Committees would be able to control their costs in the event that commodity prices were unfavorable. We want to discuss the configuration of those accounting and administrative service providers and how they will fulfill the needs of the innovative oil and gas producers.
When we talk about the Service Providers we are highlighting their independence from any one specific producer. With the elimination of the designation of “operator” from any one specific producer in the Joint Operating Committee no accounting, production administration or exploration administration is provided to the Joint Operating Committee in a dedicated manner as it is today. This creates a fundamental change in the manner of how the work is approached in the industry. It is liberating when we consider the use of technology that is available today and the standardization of the processes that has occurred in the oil and gas industry. A Joint Operating Committee is therefore free to engage a service provider to fulfill these administrative duties, independent of any one of the specific participating producers in a Joint Operating Committee.
From the accounting perspective we have already talked about the Production Accounting role and how that could be specialized to the point where a service provider is working in one geographical area for a large number of Joint Operating Committees. That is the most logical manner in which to organize that type of work. We have also discussed the royalty accounting requirements. And how a service provider would be able to specialize on that specific royalty legislation enabling the producers that use that service provider to pay the lowest possible royalty obligations. And we have talked about an accounting service provider that specializes in the compliance requirements to the SEC. The point being that we are seeing a further break down in the types of accounting service providers that are specializing on a variety of different criteria for the oil and gas producers. This is the required next step in the evolution of the economic output of the oil and gas industry. The further division of labor and specialization are the only means in which an economy can expand its output.
With the specialization of individual service providers based on unique accounting specialities. [I’m not familiar with production or exploration administrative needs and therefore can’t comment on those.] A Joint Operating Committee would engage these service providers to provide for the services that are required for their property. There they could choose a Production Accountant who is located in the region. A revenue and royalty accountant who is known for their ability to keep royalties down. And if the price of natural gas drops to the threshold price determined by the Joint Operating Committee, to where the facility will be shut-in, these accounting service providers are not engaged during that time and incur no billings for the property.
The alternative is for each producer to hire the necessary accounting staff as they do now. This is bureaucratic and wasteful in that it builds capacities in each firm to handle x contingencies. The problem is that each firm only needs those capabilities for a few hundred hours a year. These capabilities are recreated within each producer firm and are unshareable between producers. Capturing unused and unusable capacity within each producer firm. It's time to look at alternatives, and the time to look is when we are designing systems for the Joint Operating Committee.
We have now conveniently reorganized the administrative and accounting services provided to oil and gas producers. Such is the way of the 21st century technologies. Closer to the practical realities of the day we find that many of the administrative and accounting functions are driven by standards of practice. These standards of practice are critical elements in the market supporting institutions necessary for the administrative and accounting firms to operate in the manner that was recently described here. It is the capabilities of the administrative and accounting marketplace, the skills, knowledge, experience and ideas that the Joint Operating Committees will acquire through what Professor Richard Langlois and others call Transaction Cost Economics. A good summary of the concept is provided in Professor Carliss Baldwin and Kim Clark’s paper “Where do Organizations Come From? A Network Design Perspective of the Theory of the Firm.”
...objects that are transacted must be standardized and counted to the mutual satisfaction of the parties involved. Also in a transaction, there must be valuation on both sides and a backward, compensatory transfer - consideration paid by the buyer to the seller. Each of these activities - standardizing, counting, valuing, compensating - adds a new set of tasks and transfers to the overall task and transfer network. Thus it is costly to convert even the simplest transfer into a transaction.
However, within a system such as the Partnership Accounting module of the Preliminary Specification. The costs associated with standardizing, counting, valuing and compensating a new set of tasks and transfers into a transaction are minimal due to the advanced use of Information Technologies. These costs are incurred by both the service provider and the Joint Operating Committee and are for their mutual benefit. If the accounting service provider is posting a journal entry for this month's revenue for a number of JOC’s, then the costs for that transaction are minimal once the initial engineering of the systems are complete. The value comes about for the service provider in having their billings being generated for these transactions processed in an automated fashion during the month.
The user and Producer need to deploy knowledgeable in their own domains, but each needs only a little knowledge about the other's. If labor is divided between two domains and most task-relevant information hidden with each one, then only a few, relatively simple transfers of material, energy and information need to pass between the domains. p. 17
and
Placing a transaction - a shared definition, a means of counting, and a means of payment - at the completed transfer point allows the decentralized magic of the price system to go to work. p. 22
We have discussed how the People, Ideas & Objects Preliminary Specification is designed to accommodate the needs of the producers, the suppliers and vendors in the service industry, society and individuals. These administrative and accounting service providers will need special interfaces in order to process their work with the producer firms and Joint Operating Committees that employ them. For instance, if a Production Accounting service provider is providing services to all of the Joint Operating Committees at three major gas plants then they might want to have special interfaces that display the information in different formats to what any one of those individual JOC’s or producers might want to look at the information. These types of interfaces will be to support the further division of labor and specialization that is a founding principle of the way in which the service providers were organized. To expect that they will fit within the generic system configuration of what a “producer” needs would be probably incorrect. This being another reason that People, Ideas & Objects provides a dedicated “software development capability to the innovative oil and gas industry” as a necessity.
We have also discussed in the Accounting Voucher module the design of transactions. This work of determining where the point of the transaction should occur is part of that process. It is more complex and detailed then it appears and if done appropriately it can have significant process efficiencies on both the producer or JOC, and service provider sides of the transaction.
The most significant fact about this system, is the economy of knowledge with which it operates, or how little the individual participants need to know in order to be able to take the right action. In abbreviated form, by a kind of symbol, only the most essential information is passed on... Frederick Hayek (1945)
Through the process of moving the industry to a “decentralized production” model as we are proposing in the Partnership Accounting module of the Preliminary Specification. We have been able to match the operational and the actual overhead costs of the Joint Operating Committee to the production and revenues of the property. Now we have achieved a dynamic whereas, conceptually, no production would occur in the industry that was not profitable. As the prices declined production would be moved off of the market as it became unprofitable. And as prices rose production would return to the market when it was again profitable. It would be at this point that the market would achieve a certain dynamic that is not present in the marketplace today. And the oil and gas producers would be able to claim that their operations were capable of providing the returns to their investors that were real.
In today’s marketplace the management's focus on cash flow is designed to deceive those that will believe they are productive. However, it is only management that believe that cash flow reflects any value. It is simply a factor of how much cash the firm has generated. Included in that cash is an invisible amount of investment needed to maintain the assets. So although cash flow can be a big number it comes with big commitments as well. Sometime those commitments can exceed the amount of cash that is generated. Yet that never stopped management from promoting their cash flow numbers.
What is needed is for the producer and Joint Operating Committee to focus on the earnings, that is the real earnings of the property. Those based on the revenues less royalties less operating and overhead expenses, after tax. When a firm focuses on those and leaves the Wall Street analysts to go play by themselves then good things can happen to the value of a property or a producer. The valuation of a property could be based on the present value of its earnings. Having a lot of production with no earnings has no value to anyone. It's an exercise in activity. Anyone can drill a well and produce oil or gas. It takes an oil man to make money. That’s the tough part of the business, making some money, despite what the Wall Street analyst might think of you.
If our focus is on the properties ability to generate a profit. And based on the shutting in of any unprofitable production, the property will only produce a profit. Therefore, how do we ensure the property always produces? By lowering the costs of the properties operations. That is the next step in the ability of this “decentralized production” model to make the Joint Operating Committee the innovative framework of the oil and gas industry. With this understanding and operation the engineers and earth scientists will be able to turn to the Knowledge & Learning module of the Preliminary Specification to determine what capabilities exist within the producer population represented in the Joint Operating Committee to see if there is any operation that they can conduct to enhance the profitability of the property. In essence each property is standing alone as its own unique cost centre. Being evaluated as its own separate business based on business values and expectations.
In recent discussions we saw that the accounting costs that are prepared for each Joint Operating Committee are the actual accounting costs incurred for that property, not an overhead allowance as it is today. By moving the accounting and administrative functions to the market, we are able to identify the exact costs to each of the Joint Operating Committees. The other implication is that neither the producer firm nor the Joint Operating Committee has to directly employ or house these accountants within their offices, only accommodate them when and where it's required. These are some of the advantages of the Partnership Accounting module of the Preliminary Specification, and modularity in general.
When we have discussed modularity it has been in the context of the eleven module Preliminary Specification. However, it could easily be that we are discussing the concept of the Joint Operating Committee. Each JOC is isolated and exclusive to all other JOC’s. As Professor Richard Langlois noted in his paper “Modularity in Technology, Organization and Society.”
What is new is the application of the idea of modularity not only to technological design but also to organizational design. Sanchez and Mahoney (1996) go so far as to assert that modularity in the design of products leads to - or at least ought to lead to modularity in the design of the organizations that produce such products. p. 1
To have the entire accounting provided by accounting service providers who are not present in either the producer firm or the Joint Operating Committee seems too great of a stretch. Dare I ask when was the last time you saw someone from accounting in an operations environment? Aren’t these people sequestered on their own floors or in other buildings for most of the time? A revenue and royalty accounting service provider operating on behalf of several dozen Joint Operating Committees and representing fifty producers would need their own office space to organize themselves in a manner that would provide for the most efficient way in which to do their job.
These accounting services are not core to the producers or Joint Operating Committees core competitive strategy. Focusing on the land and asset base, the engineering and earth science capabilities which make up the value proposition is where the time and energy should be expended. Accountants can complete their work through meetings, emails and telephone calls no matter where they are located. The producers objective is to have these accounting overhead items match the revenues within a Joint Operating Committee when the production is shut-in. The decentralized production model will ensure that the operational and overhead costs are reduced during times of shut-in production.
In order to achieve the specialization and division of labor that will provide the efficiencies in their accounting services. The accounting service providers will need to organize themselves in a manner that provides the best service to their customers. These configurations will in no way represent the way the work is done today. In addition People, Ideas & Objects and the user community are designing systems to be as highly automated as possible. That’s not to suggest the role of the accountant is diminished in this environment. Their role will be more high level value added work, not transaction oriented. And they will have the support of the People, Ideas & Objects software development capabilities available to develop new and innovative systems interfaces. Enabling them to innovate and evolve their services to the producers.
We’ve uprooted the accountants from their homes within the comfortable hierarchy. And expected them to develop their own businesses with their own self sustaining revenue streams. In the movement of the administrative functions from the firm to the market there will be the generation of what Professor Richard Langlois in his paper in the Journal of Industrial and Corporate Change describes as “Dynamic Transaction Costs.”
Over time, capabilities change as firms and markets learn, which implies a kind of information or knowledge cost - the cost of transferring the firm's capabilities to the market or vice-verse. These "dynamic" governance costs are the costs of persuading, negotiating and coordinating with, and teaching others. They arise in the face of change, notably technological and organizational innovation. In effect, they are the costs of not having the capabilities you need when you need them. p. 99
Recall in other modules, we established an account to collect the charges for Dynamic Transaction Costs so that they can be identified and controlled. These costs will be incurred in the beginning stages of the transition from the firm to the market configuration.
"F.A. Hayek (1945, p. 523) once wrote that 'economic problems arise always and only in consequence of change.' My argument is the flip-side: as change diminishes, economic problems recede. Specifically, as learning takes place within a stable environment, transaction costs diminish. As Carl Dahlman (1979) points out, all transaction costs are at base information costs. And, with time and learning, contracting parties gain information about one another's behavior. More importantly, the transacting parties will with time develop or hit upon institutional arrangements that mitigate the sources of transaction costs." p. 104
What I would imagine will happen will be the accounting staff of an oil and gas firm will be cast adrift to find its own footing. Based on unique specializations and Service Level Agreements they will be free to organize and approach other producers for similar services and attempt to discern where their specializations exists. Sounds pretty dramatic but should this not have happened a long time ago?
It will be during this time when the Dynamic Transaction Costs are high. It will need to be determined within the Service Level Agreement how these costs are recovered. And as time passes and the work that is undertaken by the various accounting service providers that provide services to the producer fall into a routine, then we will know the transition to the market is complete. Professor Langlois notes.
‘Routines,' write Nelson and Winter (1982, p. 124), 'are the skills of an organization.' p. 106
and
Such tacit knowledge is fundamentally empirical: it is gained through imitation and repetition not through conscious analysis or explicit instruction. This certainly does not mean that humans are incapable of innovation; but it does mean that there are limits to what conscious attention can accomplish. It is only because much of life is a matter of tacit knowledge and unconscious rules that conscious attention can produce as much as it does. p. 106
and
In a metaphoric sense, at least, the capabilities or the organization are more than the sum (whatever that means) of the 'skill' of the firm's physical capital, there is also the matter of organization. How the firm is organized - how the routines of the humans and machines are linked together - is also part of a firm's capabilities. Indeed, 'skills, organization, and technology are intimately intertwined in a functioning routine, and it is difficult to say exactly where one aspect ends and another begins' (Nelson and Winter, 1982, p. 104). p. 106
To remove ourselves from the detail of the Partnership Accounting module we find that the real value is gained by the oil and gas producer. There are three elements that are affected in very positive ways by using the decentralized production model. Having the option of removing the marginal production from the marketplace enables the producer to attain the following three attributes.
The first attribute is the ability to avoid the financial losses that occur as a result of producing the property when the commodity prices are below the properties marginal costs. The fact that today the properties marginal costs exceeds its commodity price, and the property continues production has significant downward influence on the current market prices for the commodity. In addition, losses on operations can become quite significant as a result of the large overheads that companies are required to carry to meet the demands of their organizations at full production. Therefore they are compelled to produce at full capacity to justify their high overheads. Moving to the decentralized production model will enable producers to shut-in production on any property that is not meeting its marginal costs. Under the decentralized production model of the Preliminary Specification the associated administrative and accounting overhead, and operating costs will match the revenues of the property, and the property while shut-in will neither report a profit or a loss on operations.
As a result of the property being shut-in the reserves of the property will be saved for a time when they can be produced profitably. Instead of producing the reserves at a loss, as they are today, the shutting-in of production will save those reserves for the time in which they will produce profits. Reducing the capital costs of those reserves as the operating losses that might otherwise have been incurred are not added to the capital costs of the reserves.
By shutting-in production the commodity pricing will find a floor around the marginal costs. There will no longer be dramatic declines in commodity prices as experienced in the past few years. Commodity markets will be healthier and provide appropriate returns for the risks taken by producers. Producers will have to impose a capital discipline that sees only profitable operations are carried out. Unprofitable producers should be dealt with harshly by the investment community.
These three attributes are significant in terms of the value they provide the oil and gas producer. For 2012 People, Ideas & Objects calculated that if the Partnership Accountings decentralized production model was available. The opportunity costs for the year would total $94 billion in additional revenue and profits for the North American producers. This is based on removal of 15% of the annual natural gas production volumes which leads to what is believed to be an increase in the commodities price towards the expected marginal cost of $6.70 / mmbtu.
With the high costs and prolific nature of the shale formations the need for the decentralized production model is a necessity. The oil and gas industry is currently run by a bureaucracy that has no idea how to produce the shale formations. Other than at significant losses. But they don’t care about that. They still get paid either way. They are entrenched and will fight People, Ideas & Objects Preliminary Specification with everything they have. Theirs is a comfortable and convenient life that doesn’t want to be disturbed. With so much to be gained, we can be sure that this fight will be a long one.
The Preliminary Specification provides the oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy.