Recalculating the Opportunity Costs
It will be interesting to see if the Preliminary Specification can overcome the inertia that is the bureaucracy in the oil and gas industry. We have quantified the issue at $67 billion for the 2012 calendar year based on the Preliminary Specifications ability to remove the marginal natural gas from the marketplace and effect an increase in the overall price. The impediment to doing this is the producers overhead structure is fixed and as a result looks distorted when there is any reduction in production. Therefore they continue to produce at capacity and take the price declines as an industry trend in which they have no control over. The problem is that the industry recently indicated that they would recommend a price of $6.70 per mmbtu as what the industry would want for a healthy natural gas business. I had calculated the $67 billion opportunity costs for 2012 at $5.50 per mcf. If the industry needs the higher price then we would need to remove an additional five percent of the production and therefore the opportunity costs would be in the range of $94 billion for 2012 alone.
In theory the Preliminary Specification is just an idea the bureaucracy will say. And without “Behemoth” they have no response to the idea. And remember, they will have to respect that idea when they go to build “Behemoth” as the “ideas” inherent in the Preliminary Specification are copyrighted. So how will they find a solution to these natural gas pricing issues that they have lived with and have not recognized now for almost three years. It has become pretty obvious, and I have to say that the bureaucracy is pretty bold these days. The question will remain how much longer will natural gas prices remain depressed using the business model that the bureaucracy is employing?
If you look at the U.S. Energy Information Administration chart for Monthly Dry Shale Gas Production you will see that this natural gas pricing problem will not go away with the prayers of the bureaucracy for one more cold winter. Since January 2007 production has shot up from about 2.5 BCF / day to approximately 27.5 BCF / day today. That accounts for almost 40 percent of the U.S. marketplace. The point is that all the gas, whether it is conventional or unconventional, needs the $6.70 / mmbtu in order to be profitable. With prolific formations such as shale gas, a new business model is needed in order to produce the natural gas at a profit.
And the Preliminary Specification is that business model. It reduces the producer to the C class executives, the earth science and engineering resources, some legal and support staff. The remainder of the resources are allocated to service providers who are focused on industry wide processes. This focus enables them to use the scope and scale of the industry wide client base to use the division of labor and specialization to provide the most efficient and effective solutions to their clients the Joint Operating Committees. Therefore when the Joint Operating Committee determines the property is to be shut-in due it not meeting its marginal costs, the costs of the service providers are not incurred and the properties production and overhead costs are not incurred during times when production is shut-in. Only the costs of capital are uncovered during times of shut-in production. This removes the marginal production from the marketplace and therefore reduces the downside swing in natural gas prices. And stops the losses that would otherwise have to be added to the reserves costs. Losses that will not have to be made up or earned in the future. A far more reasonable business model, but one that requires that the Preliminary Specification be built in order to define and support the innovative and profitable oil and gas producer.
The Preliminary Specification provides the oil and gas producer with the most profitable means of oil and gas operations. People, Ideas & Objects Revenue Model specifies the means in which investors can participate in these user defined software developments. Users are welcome to join me here. Together we can begin to meet the future demands for energy.