The Preliminary Specification Part CCLXIX (C&G Part XVIII)
One of the key changes that is made in the Preliminary Specification is the move away from the “high throughput production” model to the “decentralized production” model. We have discussed this throughout the various modules and now we want to discuss the governance aspect of producing oil or gas when it is known to be unprofitable. Through the changes that we have made in the Preliminary Specification. Shutting in of production causes the production and overhead costs to drop in line with the revenues from the well so that a lack of production does not create a loss. Producing at low price scenarios does however a create a loss. Therefore the firm should have in the Compliance & Governance module a strong governance model that enforces a discipline to ensure that production is curtailed when pricing drops below the margin. Professor Richard Langlois defines the two models in his book “The Dynamic of Industrial Capitalism: Schumpeter, Chandler and the New Economy.”
In a world of decentralized production, most costs are variable costs; so, when variations or interruptions in product flow interfere with output, costs decline more or less in line with revenues. But when high-throughput production is accomplished by means of high-fixed-cost machinery and organization, variations and interruptions leave significant overheads uncovered. p.58
The amount of value that is destroyed during times when the natural gas or oil prices decline is significant. The response of the North American producers to this “phenomenon” is both amusing and startling. They have within their power to fix the situation, yet do absolutely nothing to mitigate the source of the problem or the severity of it. They are natural gas producers, don’t bother them with prices or pipelines or customers, or for that matter the business of the business. This is management’s way of listening to the market and acting accordingly.
What is needed is a new method to deal with the volatility in the oil and gas marketplace. This is only the beginning of price variances. The producers need the ability to curtail production when the prices drop below the margin as is proposed in the Preliminary Specification. This may run against the best interests of those that are charged with operating the firm. And therefore the decision may need to be made by those that are responsible for the governance of the firm. If you can limit the losses. Save the reserves for the day in which the prices will return a profit. The periods in which losses will occur will be less frequent and of less intensity.
But let's look at the larger picture. If everyone in the industry adopted this new discipline then there would be no downward spikes in pricing. If all of the marginal production was removed from the market, the prices would respond to the upside almost immediately. Placing a floor on prices at the higher costs of production. Producers like to think they have employed a high level of capital discipline in terms of their spending. What if they employed a high level of production discipline as well. Then they could assert that they were not reckless in incinerating capital through operating losses in the fashion the capital markets have come accustomed to.
In the Petroleum Lease Marketplace module we have the “Marginal Production Threshold Interface” which indicates which production is at the threshold of becoming marginal or is not earning a profit. In addition this is a collaborative interface that allows the producer to interact with the other participants in the Joint Operating Committee who collectively hold the decision rights to suspend production. It is there that the decision will be made. We will also establish an interface in the Compliance & Governance module and also call it the “Marginal Production Threshold Interface”. It will include a section where the CEO or COO has the authority, in cooperation with the partners in the Joint Operating Committee, to shut-in some production. Taking the decision out of those in operations and placing it in the executive is probably how most of the decisions will have to be made. It certainly isn’t being done in any form or fashion today is it.
For the industry to successfully provide for the consumers energy demands, it’s necessary to build the systems that identify and support the Joint Operating Committee. Building the Preliminary Specification is the focus of People, Ideas & Objects. Producers are encouraged to contact me in order to support our Revenue Model and begin their participation in these communities. Those individuals that are interested in joining People, Ideas & Objects can join me here and begin building the software necessary for the successful and innovative oil and gas industry.
Please note what Google+ provides us is the opportunity to prove that People, Ideas & Objects are committed to developing this community. That this is user developed software, not change that is driven from the top down. Join me on the People, Ideas & Objects Google+ Circle (private circle, accessible by members only) and begin building the community for the development of the Preliminary Specification.