The Preliminary Specification Part CLXIII (RM Part XVII)
We start our fourth pass through the Preliminary Specification in the Resource Marketplace module with a look at Chapter 4 “The Rise of the Corporation” of Professor Richard Langlois book “The Dynamics of Industrial Capitalism”. In this chapter he suggests that organizations developed “buffers” in order to mitigate the variances in markets. These buffers would include inventories and in oil and gas that would include commercial storage. These “buffers” help to offset the difficulties in the business and make the potential variances dissipate in terms of their magnitude and frequency. Langlois however, notes that buffers come with the cost of a lack of operational flexibility, and as it turns out a whole lot more. Commercial storage of natural gas is at record levels in North America and gas prices are at $2.52 / mmbtu. A price that would make most of the gas productions costs exceed the price received.
Professor Langlois states that there are two business models that we can chose from. The “high throughput production” model or the “decentralized production model”. Currently the industry is operating under the “high throughput production” model and through the choice of developing and using the People, Ideas & Objects software we can transform the industry model to the “decentralized production model”. This will be a theme that will be discussed throughout the fourth pass through the Preliminary Specification. Here is how the two models operate.
In a world of decentralized production, most costs are variable costs; so, when variations or interruptions in product flow interfere with output, costs decline more or less in line with revenues. But when high-throughput production is accomplished by means of high-fixed-cost machinery and organization, variations and interruptions leave significant overheads uncovered. p. 58
When difficult times arise, such as we are experiencing in the natural gas business today, the reaction is to cut back on capital expenditures. This is a blunt and ineffective tool to deal with the problem of overproduction and the real culprit, record storage. What has to happen is the marginal production has to be removed from the market until such time as the price realized covers its costs and a reasonable profit is earned. The decentralized production model will allow the producers to throttle back the production volumes and correspondingly cut back on production and overhead costs, until such time as the prices recover to cover the marginal cost of the production and an element of profit. Other wise we are going to see these violent over reactions in the prices of the commodities.
To achieve this removal of the marginal production the producers are going to need the restructuring around the “decentralized production model”. This will require the development of software to define and support these attributes in the organization first and foremost. You can’t restructure a fundamental change of this scope in the industry without first making the software that defines and supports that change. That is what we are doing here in People, Ideas & Objects.
The operational decision making framework of the industry is held with the Joint Operating Committee. Within the Petroleum Lease Marketplace module we will have the “Marginal Production Threshold Interface” where the partnership can agree to the volumetric decrease, or shutting in of production based on the point when the marginal costs exceed the revenues from production. If there is a commensurate drop in the costs and overhead of the shut-in marginal production, then the producer will not lose or gain any financial benefit from the drop in production. They will save those reserves for a time when they will be produced profitably. If the industry begins to drop their marginal production in this manner then the declines in prices will be limited on the downside and the record volumes in storage will be yesterdays news.
Within the Resource Marketplace module we will begin to discuss the necessary changes to the makeup of the service industry and resource marketplace. The division of labor and how the services are provided to the producers will need to be changed if in one month there may be no production at certain facilities. Otherwise the industry will have to make due with $2.52 gas.
For the industry to successfully provide for the consumers energy demands, it’s necessary to build the systems that identify and support the Joint Operating Committee. Building the Preliminary Specification is the focus of People, Ideas & Objects. Producers are encouraged to contact me in order to support our Revenue Model and begin their participation in these communities. Those individuals that are interested in joining People, Ideas & Objects can join me here and begin building the software necessary for the successful and innovative oil and gas industry.
Please note what Google+ provides us is the opportunity to prove that People, Ideas & Objects are committed to developing this community. That this is user developed software, not change that is driven from the top down. Join me on the People, Ideas & Objects Google+ Circle and begin building the community for the development of the Preliminary Specification.