The Preliminary Specification Part CXXX (R&C Part XXV)
Continuing on with our innovation review of the Research & Capabilities module of the Preliminary Specification. We note that yesterdays post enabled the innovative oil and gas producer to isolate the innovation activities within one area in their firm. This enabled the various Joint Operating Committees to focus on execution of what was known, which of course included what was proven new and innovative. Today we want to talk about the uncertainty and risk associated with innovative search. Something that I think that most producers are familiar with, however, something that will become more commonplace as the demand for innovation by the producer increases.
What is clear to me is the role that software will play in the enabling of innovation within the oil and gas firm. Throughout the series of these blog posts on the Preliminary Specification it is evident that software plays a critical role in the future oil and gas firm. Software is able to define and support the quantifiable and replicable processes of innovation. For the oil and gas industry to conduct any level of innovation without having the software, as defined here by People, Ideas & Objects, will be leaving the innovations outcome to chance. Such is the nature of software in the 21st century.
Whether it is geological or engineering in nature, the pursuit of these sciences bring to the oil and gas business certain elements of risk and uncertainty. Add to this the commercial nature of the oil and gas business and you have an atmosphere where innovation is for those who can take the heat. Professor Dosi suggest this is the appropriate environment for innovation.
I suggest that, in general, innovative search is characterized by strong uncertainty. This applies, in primis to those phases of technical change that could be called pre-paradigmatic: During these highly exploratory periods one faces a double uncertainty regarding both the practical outcomes of the innovative search and also the scientific and technological principles and the problem-solving procedures on which technological advances could be based. When a technological paradigm is established, it brings with it a reduction of uncertainty, in the sense that it focuses the directions of search and forms the grounds for formatting technological and market expectations more surely. (In this respect, technological trajectories are not only the ex post description of the patterns of technical change, but also, as mentioned, the basis of heuristics asking “where do we go from here?”) p. 1134
Lets be clear, the uncertainty resides in both the scientific and business realms. I am not of the opinion that the two can be separated, as is done in other systems such as SAP. This is maybe why the industry has been poorly served, in my opinion, by the business systems that operate today. They don’t recognize the innovative and science basis of the business and therefore are unable to support an innovative oil and gas industry. If the commodity prices are reallocating the financial resources to fuel innovation. The industry will need to have the systems and procedures installed in order to manage the innovation. Systems such as described here. With the low costs of knowledge and collaboration being the two elements that affect the technological trajectories, having interfaces such as the “Planning & Deployment Interface” of the Research & Capabilities module will be a necessity.
However, even in the case of “normal” technical search (as opposed to the “extraordinary” exploration associated with the quest for new paradigms) strong uncertainty is present. Even when the fundamental knowledge base and the expected directions of advance are fairly well known, it is still often the case that one must first engage in exploratory research, development, and design before knowing what the outcome will be (what the properties of a new chemical compound will be, what an effective design will look like, etc.) and what some manageable results will cost, or, indeed, whether very useful results will emerge. p. 1135
It is this paragraph that prompted me to start the process of writing the Preliminary Specification series. “Engaging in the exploratory research, development and design of the system before knowing what the outcome will be and what some manageable results will cost, or, indeed, whether very useful results will emerge.” At part 130 we have come a long way and I think we have built some value for the innovative oil and gas producer. It seems we have a long way yet to travel.
For the industry to successfully provide for the consumers energy demands, it’s necessary to build the systems that identify and support the Joint Operating Committee. Building the Preliminary Specification is the focus of People, Ideas & Objects. Producers are encouraged to contact me in order to support our Revenue Model and begin their participation in these communities. Those individuals that are interested in joining People, Ideas & Objects can join me here and begin building the software necessary for the successful and innovative oil and gas industry.
Please note what Google+ provides us is the opportunity to prove that People, Ideas & Objects are committed to developing this community. That this is user developed software, not change that is driven from the top down. Join me on the People, Ideas & Objects Google+ Circle and begin building the community for the development of the Preliminary Specification.