Thursday, July 03, 2008

The IEA gets it.

The IEA has as their guiding principle "Energy Security, Growth and Sustainability through cooperation and outreach." This is the appropriate position for every energy consumer or producer. As consumers we should not limit ourselves in any manner. Acceptance of a lower standard of living, or a future that is constrained by energy, is a defeatist attitude and capitulation of the benefits of globalization.

As a producer the efforts to fulfill that promise to the consumer now comes with extremely attractive financial incentives. Isn't it too bad that the industry, which is at record levels of capital expenditures, is moving backwards in their production volumes. As is painfully obvious to most, the organizational methods of the industry do not enable them to participate in this market for much longer. This is not a job for the bureaucracy.

You can however mark me as surprised when I read the following in the Australian Business;

The IEA's outlook resonated with the views of oil company executives at an industry conference in Madrid, who said the red-hot oil market reflected deep-seated pessimism about the industry's ability to open the spigot to satisfy rising demand.
The industry actually kind of admitted they understand the problem. I have certainly made it clear that the producers management lack the motivation to do anything about it. And it will be the investor class that needs to fund these software developments in order to provide them with an alternative form of organization for their oil and gas assets. This quotation from a number of faceless executives at a conference is the first tangible recognition that a problem exists. We however, do not have the time to wait for these companies to do something about it. Our first act should be to axe the management of these failing firms.
Perhaps one of the most disappointing figures to emerge from the IEA report was its assessment of oil production by nations outside the OPEC cartel. Non-OPEC supply was "paltry to say the least", said Mr Eagles, the IEA's head of market analysis, and had been revised down since last year's market report. He said crude supply from non-OPEC countries would remain at or below 39 million barrels per day over the next five years, though it would rise after 2013.
The Wall Street Journal noted the following in their blog;
Project delays averaging 12 months, coupled with global average decline of 5.2% - up from 4% last year – are the factors behind these revisions. Over 3.5 mb/d of new production will be needed each year just to hold global production steady. “Our findings highlight again the need for sustained, and indeed, increased investment both upstream and downstream — to assure that the market is adequately supplied,” stated [IEA Executive Director Nabuo] Tanaka.
And Yale comes in with the following;
Global leaders fret about climate change and economic growth, throwing out blame in many directions. But finding fault or inequities does little to solve the problem of rising demand for energy and a declining supply, argues Chandran Nair, founder and CEO of the Global Institute for Tomorrow. The bottom line is that the world economy has become too dependent on fossil fuels.
It is tiresome to be reading these quotes about the problem. If you read the 2007 annual reports the companies could not be happier with the situation. They had the opportunity to do something about this almost five years ago. When I proposed this software development solution in September 2003, an idea that they clearly understood, and an idea they stole from me and handed over to Daniel Yergin's company, Cambridge Energy Research Associates to research. Isn't it also ironic that Daniel Yergin's "unprecedented 16 million barrels" of new production never showed up? Good thing CERA's 220 PhD's were'nt as quick as I was in publishing.

If the producers management thought it was such a good idea to spend money on the idea of using the Joint Operating Committee as the key organizational construct in September 2003 with CERA, doesn't this prove they are guilty of allowing this situation to occur? I repeat the management are not realizing this situation in a conference today. Matthew Simmons has been warning about it for almost a decade. These companies are not acting in anyones interest but the self-absorbed managements. Take any companies stock options and calculate the amount they "are in the money" and you'll see how effectively the scam has worked.

For example taking our favorite company in Canada, Petro-Canada, has options that "are in the money" for $410 million. And total 2007 option based compensation (Using $53.62, their end of year price) was $82 million. Just to make sure they don't seem too greedy, they did issue $255 million in dividends. (Note this was a topic of discussion on this blog in 2006, so it is fair to say the management did know about this.).

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Wednesday, July 02, 2008

Uh, actually it's three applications.

I was running through the options in how the People, Ideas & Objects application modules can be implemented with Solaris 10 and Java. What has quickly become obvious is that the application that we are building is actually three different applications. Categorized on the basis of either a Producer, a Person or a Joint Operating Committee (JOC). Each category having access to the eleven modules of the People, Ideas & Objects through different interfaces.

The Solaris operating system provides containerized virtual instances of the operating system. For all intents and purposes these virtual instances of Solaris are as separate and distinct to the two operating systems running applications in ExxonMobil and ChevronTexaco. A virtual instance of Solaris is created for each person, JOC and producer company. This provides the separation and access of resources to only those who are authorized. Interactions between instances is through the Java enabled transaction management capabilities.

This provides enhanced security flexibility to each person, JOC or producer company. With each virtual instance of Solaris accessible by the owner they can grant access privileges based on Solaris' 50 user definable roles. Root access is available to be granted to a variety of people who need that access, yet it only provides root access to those areas. Audit, compliance and others will be able to access what they need to do their jobs without the risk of granting global root access to people who need it.

Each of these virtual instance will provide a server side MySQL database that manges the data model for their type of user, a person, JOC or producer. I believe this helps in avoiding much of the complexity and confusion that "might" occur if we ran this application as one monolithic instance. One might assume that the hardware requirements would explode in terms of cost and complexity, and this is where Sun has obviously spent some engineering time. And why this will be run on Sun's network.com or cloud computing platform. Each processor could handle 16 virtual instances, and, are able to scale dynamically to use the number of processors any application may demand. Making the decision to use Sun's cloud computing the equivalent of a "doh!" as Homer Simpson would say.

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Tuesday, July 01, 2008

Optimists and Pessimists.

Does anyone still believe there is no problem in terms of our energy supply? Other then the companies themselves, I don't think anyone would assert that all is well, carry on. $140 oil and $13 natural gas are telling the market, "Houston, we have a problem."

Now the level of discussion of the problem is increasing substantially each day. Supply and demand focused discussion contrast the optimists point of view, others document the pessimistic scenarios. What this discussion doesn't provide is any focus on a solution.

Organizational changes, supported by the Information Technologies will provide a solution to the painfully slow, bureaucratic oil and gas producer's. Based on the producers comments over the past few years, that all is well, one can clearly conclude they haven't got a clue. What was reasonable performance for any firm in the 20th Century pales compared to the Global expectations of the 21st Century.

The Information Revolution is the solution to the problems of today, just as the Industrial Revolution was the solution to the over-population and hunger of its day. From an energy consumption point of view having x million drivers stuck in gridlock twice a day becomes one of silliest things that we humans do. From an energy consumption point of view, the car whether it is hybrid, electrical or hydrogen (all pipe dreams) is not the solution. The car died with the cheap energy era, get a Segway. Hauling 200 pounds is much more economical and energy efficient then hauling 4,000 pounds.

What are the potential results of a reorganization of the industry? Many times in my career I have been surprised by the collective capabilities of the industry. Several times they have been able to achieve and exceed the impossible in terms of their collective abilities. We need to tap into this collective capability and accelerate it to a speed that will provide the energy marketplace with reasonable volumes of petroleum. Reasonable volumes that a Segway rider could appreciate.

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Monday, June 30, 2008

What a difference a day makes.

I have quoted on several occasions the number of words that are "consumed" in this weblog. Previously I quoted 400,000 and most recently 350,000. Either one of these numbers is impressive in terms of the expression of the idea of using the Joint Operating Committee.

Google is always making changes to the Blogger service that I use. Recently I upgraded to their "Blogger in Draft" service and was able to download the .xml file for the entire blog. To my surprise there are now over 692,000 words in the blog. That's the equivalent of seven books! So much for my previous attempts to calculate this number.

The important aspect of this is the fact that this idea has created such a rich and fertile ground for new ideas in the oil and gas industry. What will be really surprising will be the volume of ideas that the global User and Developer community generates.

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Sunday, June 29, 2008

I swear, a day has 36 hours.

Going over the budget numbers for this software development project. In doing so I want to bring back a term that was used in the pre-2000 era technology. That is "burn-rate". Not something that you necessarily want to brag about but this project may have one of the largest "burn-rates" in technology history.

First off I want to note the costs of development in the May 2004 proposal was detailed at $70 - 85 million. Two changes have made these previous development numbers pale in comparison to what they will be in the future. A third change works to expand the number of hours in a day, which leads to even higher annual costs.

As I have mentioned on many occasions, the Users need to be involved in this software development. I have argued that SAP knows nothing of drilling wells and NGL operations. And as a result SAP doesn't work for oil and gas. The need to have the Users involved in development from the start is necessary to get this system right. There is no other way to deal with the issues of determining who, what, where, when, why and how the software has to work then asking the people who hold this tacit knowledge collectively.

OK so the users need to be compensated. Asking them to volunteer their time is an excessive request that extends well beyond the reasonable or even surreal. I have also noted here before that the oil and gas industry is headed towards an annual turnover of $4.5 trillion. I'll bet even Dr. Evil would choke on those numbers. The cost increase that I am talking about here is that the user-to-developer ratio will range from a low of five-to-one and an upper factor of ten-to-one. That's up-to ten User hours for each developer hour.

The second aspect of the original proposal was that it was just for Canadian operations. Back then my thinking was limited to that market, and rather quickly realized that the global audience needed to be targeted. Having only one geographic location being serviced by this application is a reduction in the real value of using the Joint Operating Committee. Besides the supply of energy is a global problem. Therefore, the royalty, tax and compliance requirements of the total population of global producers needs to be considered on top of just the Canadian operational environment.

Lastly I want to add fuel to the fire of my adversaries by noting that the compression of time is something that will be implemented in this application. Instead of budgeting for four years, I think it can be done in two and half years to initial commercial release. (Maybe even less!). We are approaching a systems use that may start the day in Russia and China, move to the Middle East, Europe and then the United States. Users from these regions will be able to collaborate in an asynchronous manner. Hence providing for potentially a "day" of user driven development that totals 36 hours.

To deal with this wealth of information we need the developers to be writing code at approximately the same pace. I have thought about this and have come up with a one-third, one-third, one-third solution. Each third of the time allocated to developers will be sectioned off in the following manner. Open-Source developers, Sun Microsystems and Indian based development houses.

Open-Source developers will be welcomed in this development and be able to add this project to their client list. These people are generally doing what they are doing because their recognized skill set is exceptional. The type of developers that are able to produce ten fold what other developers can do.

Sun Microsystems developers. And here we are accessing the Solaris, Java and MySQL developers. Sun has hired many of the best developers in the world. I also believe that this project will be the first test of Sun's integrated environment, and it is therefore incumbent upon them to prove to the world that it is a viable environment. Essentially setting the bar as high as has been attained in terms of technological risk and implementation.

Lastly I am a fan of the Indian based model of software development. That these are offered at a discount is only gravy for this projects budget. Although they may be fairly new to the overall development world (in terms of the fifty year history of computing) they have inherent advantages in that they speak on average 7 different languages and communication becomes their forte. After all Java is only another form of communication. Secondly they are able to fill in the gaps of time in our 36 hour clock. Lastly they will be a quick and efficient resource in terms of taking many of the boiler plate technological frameworks that exist today and implement them in our code. What I mean is the PPDM, (Petroleum Producer Data Model), XBRL, (Extensible Business Reporting Language) of the SEC, Alberta Crown Royalty frameworks etc. These have become the building block of many companies and we will be able to leverage heavily off this infrastructure.

That in a nutshell is how we will develop the eleven modules in the People, Ideas & Objects application. Anyone want to guess what the total cost will be? I think the annual costs are quoted in the B (Billion) range. This also does not impute the Users and Developers are chained to a desk for 8 hours a day. Some Users, and some developers may only contribute a total of eight hours to the project and some will find life-time employment with this project. Life time employment, as Google has shown, development never stops.

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Following up on Sun.

Yesterday's post commented briefly on Sun Microsystems software, hardware and service offering. Sun published their HPC (High Performance Computing) newsletter, and here are four excellent articles from that publication.

First is Sun co-founder Andy Bechtolshiem talking about the building of "commercial" grade systems for "cloud" computing. Andy makes the comment that he spends more of his time on physics these days. Bechtolshiem always provides fascinating talks.

Second is another pertinent article, "Big Data Changes the Rules," regarding this software development project. Recall the Technical Vision that is a key part of this application. How it predicts a data Tsunami will provide key competitive advantages to those in oil and gas that can manage and use this data. The article notes some of the details of how the unsuspecting oil and gas firm may have difficulty with these data volumes.

The third article is an interesting read on how Sun's network.com is being used in innovative ways.

Lastly a comparison of MySql database vs. Oracle. Our choice of database is to use MySQL since Sun purchased the company. This now provides us with a one system vendor solution for all our needs. SPARC chip-set, Solaris Operating Systems, Java and Databases are proprietary technologies of Sun. No more finger pointing as to who's fault it is.

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Saturday, June 28, 2008

Google, McKinsey & Sun

These three firms have been at the forefront of providing the resources for this software development project. Google never stops providing more robust and useful tools. Although the interfaces are simple and effective, understanding the global scope and scale of their applications, from simple account management to their many API's (Application Programming Interfaces), provides a challenge to the user. I am only now beginning to feel like I am using the full services of the applications offered.

McKinsey on the other hand are defining the Information Technology driven organizational changes for all industries in the 21st century. They like Google require a commitment to review their excellent resources on an ongoing basis. Three documents that were recently released provide further justification for the changes needed in oil and gas. The three documents are;

I have commented before on Sun Microsystems offerings here.These three firms are providing much of the ideas and infrastructure for the innovative oil and gas producer. They have defined this as a market of interest, and the users and developers of the People, Ideas & Objects application are the benefactors.

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Sunday, June 22, 2008

McKinsey Mobilizing Minds

During the writing of the Research & Capabilities and Knowledge & Learning modules I have stumbled across a McKinsey document that I should have reviewed back in 2006. Clearly this document has had significant influence over my thinking during the time I set out to define the draft specifications. The article is titled "The 21st Century Organization" and they have recently expanded the article into an excellent book called "Mobilizing Minds: Creating Wealth from Talent in the 21st Century". The information that I am looking at in this post is from Chapter 1 of the book. I have also reviewed the document in the Research & Capabilities and Knowledge & Learning module specifications.


One of the reasons that I am so confident in this project is, first of all, the need as reflected by the oil and gas prices. Secondly the effect that Information Technology is having on releasing the constraints within companies and industries. We are in a period of time where anything can be accomplished, and if done properly, with the People leading the way, we can solve these problems.

It was Professor Ludwig von Mises who noted that the industrial revolution was the solution to the problems of the day. I believe the Information Technology revolution is the solution to the problems of today. This book, which originated from the McKinsey article, speaks clearly to the time and place we find ourselves in.

Ask any mid-level professional or manager at almost any large company - even a successful one - and he or she will tell you that the growing complexity of work is becoming a greater and greater problem.

Starting off with a clear statement of how congested and constrained our traditional organizations have become.

One survey by the research firm Net Future Institute (NFI) showed that nearly 75 percent of senior managers consider the workload of people in their department to be too heavy. Another survey by the same firm found that most people do their best business thinking not while at work but while commuting to work or in their home. Why? Because that's when they finally get some time to think.

The problem in oil and gas is that the organization that brought us to this point in time can not deal with the complexity of the current business. The best term I have heard is that the easy or cheap energy era has ended. The firms as they stand have provided commercial volumes of energy to the markets for many years. When oil was valued at $9.00 to $22.00 a generations worth of time had past. The constraints of change and the complexity of the business are catching up to a generation of neglect in building the business. What brought us to this point is inadequate for our needs. The traditional Schumpeterian creative destruction has been delayed in this industry because of the current earnings of the producers. But if you listen closely, they are claiming their costs are inching towards the point where the bureaucracy will not be able to earn anything from their production.


The People who have worked in this industry are the ones that need to lead the changes in these organizations. These companies will never exercise the level of change that is necessary to bridge this new energy era. Are we to wait for this industry to turn to ashes before we are motivated to make the necessary changes?

The increasing frustration of the workforce is symptomatic of an even more fundamental issue: the organization of most companies today - and how it limits the ability of talented people to perform and take full advantage of the opportunities of the 21st century. The modern, "thinking" company should be a fluid and fast moving creature, in which its workers discover knowledge and exchange it with their peers collaborating with others to create value.

In many ways the industry is not just dealing with the difficulties of the business they are in, they also are faced with a "better way" to do their work as offered by IT.

The problem, however, is that most of today's large companies fall well short of creating conditions that maximize the productivity of their thinking, problem-solving, self-directed people. Too bad this thinking machine isn't working nearly as well as it should be.

And here is the paradox that most people face. The technology provides the opportunity to move to a "thinking, problem-solving, self-directed people" but also locks them into the traditional ways of the organization. As I have mentioned many times before "SAP is the bureaucracy".

Much of the communication is worthless noise: In a 2005 survey conducted by the McKinsey Quarterly, of senior and top executives, 60 percent said their company's size and complexity have made it somewhat difficult, or much more difficult, to capture opportunities than it was just five years ago. Little wonder, then, that ineffective bureaucracies develop within large companies, that the head office seems remote from the field, and that the "left hand doesn't know what the right hand is doing."

As Nobel laureate Herbert Simon stated. "What information consumes is rather obvious. It consumes the attention of its recipients. Hence a wealth of information creates a poverty of attention."

A symptom of the problem companies face today is simply the amount of energy they waste. In the cities the problem is congestion. In companies, the problem is unproductive complexity.

It is opportune at this time to ask what happens next. In oil and gas we see the past leadership holding to the notion that they do not understand why the prices are so high. The fact is the market is allocating the financial resources to these firms to deal with the increased complexity involving the earth science and engineering disciplines. Information Technologies are enabling people within these organizations to do so much more, however, they have no authority to exercise any change. Is this situation to remain in the oil and gas industry for another five years? Or is there an alternative, such as this software development project?

The organization of most companies today bears limited resemblance to the original intended design. While there are plenty of well managed companies that are exceptions, most are struggling: Their hierarchical relationships have become so confused that the power of hierarchy to drive performance is compromised. This dysfunction is usually felt most severely at the front line, where the brainpower and the energy of front-line workers are significantly consumed in the struggle against the internal complexity of their organizations.

This is a software development project that has researched the problems in oil and gas and arrived at a solution to these problems. The five years that I have spent on this research is time that would have needed to be expended, and therefore, I am able to offer the industry the ability to turn back the clock on the past five years and establish this development as a priority.

The fact is that even the most self-directed, brilliant people can't create wealth by working alone. They need help mobilizing the talents of other thinking intensive people and securing crucial capital and labor. They need to be able to convert their thinking into moneymaking activities.

In order to proceed from here requires the People who are doing the work in these organizations to put their heads together and make this application capable of doing their jobs. This mass collaboration could start at anytime and the longer we wait, the longer the problems will fester. The involvement of the People is not something that can be replicated in any other manner. The industry needs to fund these developments and I can not do the work of thousands so time is now being lost.


A new problem


In this book McKinsey articulate further problems that are inherent in the bureaucracy. One that reflects that the lack of motivation to resolve these issues is rewarded by the price driven increases in profits of the producers.

Much of the underlying problem is the use of internal financial reports that do not reflect the underlying economic relationship of intangibles to profit making. Managers can look good on reported results, even as they take actions that hurt the enterprise. These issues are compounded by performance measurement approaches that reward selfish, divisive behavior at the expense of collaborative behaviors for the common good.

Mobilizing Mind Power


What would be the effect of having this software operational in an oil and gas concern? Would using the JOC revolutionize the performance of the science based oil and gas producer?

If your organization can harness this mind power -- if you can boost the profits from each thinking employee -- then your organization will be on the path to great success and competitive advantage in the 21st century world.

and

Most companies are tapping into only a small fraction of the potential to create wealth from the mind power of all the managers and professionals they employ. During the 20th century, the costs of coordinating work across large companies were so large that mind power was trapped in small pockets of people scattered throughout each company. But nowadays this is no longer true. As a result, today there is an opportunity to earn large "rents" (that is, profits disproportionate to the amount of labor and / or capital that are invested.)

Where the Money is


Obviously it is my belief that the changes in organizing the oil and gas industry will provide value to producers, individuals, and society. Alternatively we face a future led by the bureaucracy and its continued failure. Does anyone see how these organizations will survive until 2020?

It would be reason enough to develop better organizing approaches if all that was accomplished was to make the jobs of talented employees more rewarding. All business leaders know how important talent is to their current success. Furthermore, it could be argued, actions taken that will enable companies to attract, develop, and reward talent bring their own reward. Still, we believe developing a better organizing model is more that that. In the 21st century, its where the money is.

What I think is a critical component of this development is a refocus on the competitive advantages of the oil and gas producer. The land base and physical assets are the producers' competitive advantages. As I indicated in the Research & Capability module the intellectual property of how things get done is transferred away from the producers to the vendors, suppliers and People working within the industry. That is their competitive advantage and hence their motivation to develop the most advanced drill bits, rigs, etc. The producer does not have the scale and scope necessary to fully develop the idea, or the application to make the idea commercial. So lets stop playing the game of no one earns any intellectual property because the industry holds all the money. The producers have to actively spend the resources necessary to fully develop the support industries that will make the energy producer the most innovative and profitable. We won't get there if the intellectual property is passed around to the vendors competition by the producer firm. And that also applies to this software development project.

Because of the development of globalization and advances in technology, scale and scope effects have increased across the board -- particularly in those effects related to intangibles. By "intangibles" we mean such assets as the brands, intellectual property, and proprietary networks that are unique to individual firms.

If we don't allow the ideas that are a critical part of an innovative science based industry to be developed where and when they are needed, we will be stuck with the problems of the 20th century. The clock is now ticking.

The opportunity is to bring the entire firms [industries] mind power and the related intangibles to every job, to increase the value of every person's work, every day.

and

We are arguing that companies need to view investing in designing and building strategic organizational capabilities as means to capturing rents from everything they do. Companies are being constrained, unnecessarily, by the unproductive complexity of working in their organizations. We believe that investing in capabilities to relax these constraints, thus enabling a company to mobilize not just labor and capital but also the company's unique mind power, is the key to creating wealth in the 21st century.

and

Furthermore, we truly believe that companies have only begun to tap the opportunities to create wealth in the 21st century. Why? Because they are still using an organizing model designed for the industrial age rather than for the digital age. to create greater wealth in the future, we believe that all companies should make organizational design the centerpiece of their corporate strategies.

Please, join me here.


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Saturday, June 21, 2008

Two More Draft Specifications

I am pleased to submit to the community the Knowledge & Learning and, Research & Capability Draft Specifications. (Please note these modules are very similar and therefore each file contains both specifications). These are the eighth and ninth Draft - Specifications and I will complete the last two Performance Evaluation and Analytics & Statistics Modules before the end of July 2008.


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Friday, June 20, 2008

Why the companies.

In my last post I pointed the accusatory finger for this energy problem, at the oil and gas companies, particularly the majors. The first aspect of the accusation is that they knew, as I had pointed out, that their organizational constraints would limit their level of activity far below the market demands. This may seem a rather harsh point of view, which they should be given the benefit of the doubt about their knowing or not knowing. It was clear to many that this situation was inevitable, I was providing a solution, not identifying the problem.

The management of the companies knowing the situation would become as difficult as it is, undertook to do nothing. They were making money and would continue to do so when the prices went up. This lack of motivation to do anything was the choice of these managers. Show me a major producer that has earned any increase in their profits other then from higher prices.

Educating the public. Even today companies and their industry representatives claim to have no idea why prices are so high. What business are they in, do they mis-understand their markets so fundamentally? What could have been done in the past five years to mitigate the problems we face today? If consumers were given the real facts, would they have gone out to purchase the SUV they feel they are now stuck with? The duck and run from the truth policies of these organizations have allowed John Q. Public to walk blindly into the biggest issue ever facing mankind. The motivation to dip into the trough is strong with these managers.

In September 2003 I published a proposal to the industry to conduct the research of determining if the JOC was the key organizational construct. Given the opportunity to deal with this constructively, the industry represented by Petro-Canada, Encana, CNRL, Talisman and many others, chose to hire Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) to research the idea that I proposed! Shows you the scope of what these people are capable of. And I was not dealing with some low level manager; I was speaking with CEO's of these firms. Luckily for me I was able to complete the research ahead of CERA. In publishing the May 2004 report the only question that was asked was who paid for the research? Well I did, and now I own it lock, stock and barrel.

It's been this last point that really bothers the companies. They have no desire to ever let anyone derive any value from Intellectual Property. It is since this time I have been forced to find employment in other industries. So here the industry was presented with a workable idea that made more sense then anything they had read before. (My words). And they hush it up and try to kill it. Each of these companies struggles with the inability of SAP to do any after sales service, why would they refuse any new idea? And that is the last point that these organizations are culpable for, their efforts to kill this opportunity to solve this problem before it affected the consumers.

These companies are more or less suffering from a grid-lock organization that long ago failed. Recall in 2007 even Exxon lost 10% of their production base after spending an additional $25 + billion in capital. These dinosaurs will never be able to keep up with the decline in their production base and are therefore slowly rapidly dying. So who else, other then the consumers are suffering as a result of the manager’s lack of accountability and motivation? Clearly the shareholders are at a sizable risk as they watch the managers slowly run the company into the ground.

I am calling on those investors to fund the developments of this software development project. A means for which the shareholders could be provided with the alternate organizational systems enabling them to manage their assets. The current oil company managers know that in today's business environment you must have the electronic systems in place first, or you will be relegated to manual systems to run your operation. The managers have their investors over a barrel.

How much longer will these managers be left in control will be determined by the investor class. An investor class that happens to be comprised mostly of John and Jane Q. Public, the people that are now facing the energy problem. What is needed is for them to act as I see no other alternative.


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Sunday, June 15, 2008

Very bad news.

I believe that the solution to the current energy difficulties is to eliminate the bureaucracy and replace it through the more natural form of organization, the Joint Operating Committee. Supporting that organization with these future software developments, will enable the markets to form and begin the process of eliminating the detrimental effects these bureaucracies have brought to our door.

I have fought with everything I have to make this situation as painless as possible. With $135.00 oil being a reflection of how I have failed to convince these bureaucracies to move to this alternative vision. Let me make it absolutely clear, these bureaucracies fully understood and agreed to the underlying hypothesis in my thesis. I originally floated this idea in September 2003 and published the full report in May 2004. What they have done since that point in time proves that they are incapable of acting in a responsible manner towards the energy demands of consumers.

The bad news that I feel is that the time has come where the real pain will soon begin. If the Saudi people have, as they announced this weekend, increased their production by a half million barrels, they have proven to me that they have done everything that they could or can. When the accusatory finger is pointed as to who's fault this is, I can assure everyone no one in the Middle East is to blame, the companies are.

The Saudi increase only shows their concern for the market. And I would have to state their concern is as genuine as mine. The system of how energy delivery in what we call the western world has reached a critical point where there is nothing left to give. A slight panic by drivers in North America will probably lead to excessive demand of the system that can not be addressed by the refiners, their inventories or the level of world oil production. This is a critical breaking point where the fallout will be permanent, and all the kings horses, and all the kings men, will never be able to put it back together again.

There is some difficulty ahead. If we are smart we would implement a consumer oriented rationing of gasoline. The primary priority should be to keep the transportation system operational at full capacity. I think a rationing is more then possible and will mitigate the disaster this may well become. The other task is the need for this software development, and the People who work in oil and gas today, get behind the re-organization of the energy industry to enable the production volumes that these economies need to function.

I believe that given the situation we have today, the resolve of the People in the next 5 - 10 years can restore the energy production our economies need and we can look back at this failure of the bureaucracies as one of the darkest periods of our civilization.

Today's problems will not be solved by today's thinking. Please, join me here, and pray for peace.


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Saturday, June 07, 2008

Management of IP (Intellectual Property) in oil and gas

I have a few thoughts on how IP is developed and used in oil and gas and why it needs to change, quickly. First, as I have documented in the Resource Marketplace Module. The competitive advantage that a producer has is contained within their land and production base. The application of the earth sciences and engineering knowledge, understanding, and capability to their land and production base are the means in which to build value. The IP (intellectual property) is how the market provides the commercial means of building the producers value.

And IP is the markets way of building value and key competitive advantages. The holding of IP within a producer company is redundant, of no value and an impediment to innovation. The market uses the tools of IP to prepare the state of art research and knowledge for its own monetary gain and competitive offerings. In the hands of a producer IP is useless.

What would holding a number of patents on drill bits provide a producer such as Exxon Mobil? Or in this case, the IP of using the JOC as the key organizational construct? Again in the hands of a single producer it makes the ideas unavailable and unusable. In the hands of an entrepreneur it can build value for the entire industry. Neither of these two examples provide the producer with any strategic competitive advantage. Nor does the producer have the economics of scale to make the innovation or research worthwhile. They are not in the drill bit or software businesses.

Until the producers realize the IP is not their competitive advantage, and accept the markets holding of these ideas, the market will not respond to the needs of the producers. If the markets efforts are in vein and the producer just hands over one vendors IP to the next, nothing will develop that is different from today's $138 / bbl marketplace.

Not recognizing the IP of others as a practice will need to change before the producers can begin to approach the market demand for energy. For the past number of years the management of IP by the industry has been catastrophic. Other then the large suppliers such as Schlumberger, BJ and Halliburton's ability to file for patents. Most of the IP has been ignored by the producers so that they do not have to grant the monopoly rights to the technology developer. Since the energy industry is a primary business and 100% of the resource value is received by them, does not mean they can strip, cherry pick, abuse or otherwise attempt to steal the IP of the market.


Over the past 5 years
my personal experience in this area has given me first hand knowledge of the depths of stupidity the companies taken the concept of IP ownership. This must stop for the betterment of society. If we continue in the fashion that we have, we will never be able to meet the markets demand for energy.

Central planning is dead, long live the market.


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Saturday, May 31, 2008

Draft Specification - Compliance & Governance™ Module

Compliance & Governance™ provides the methods that the firm deals with the investment community and its associated regulators. (SEC, Tax and Royalty). The unique attribute of how the People, Ideas & Objects™ application provides the compliance, is by using the advanced technologies available to automate as much of the processes as possible. Technologies that the industry inherits in this software development capability and the regulators embrace of technology through their published API's (Application Programming Interface) and Frameworks. The best example of which is the SEC's XBRL initiative.

In this module we are ensuring that the policies and procedures of the People, Ideas & Objects™ application and its users are in compliance with the various regulations and requirements of an organization. In essence, through building this application we are moving the compliance and governance framework of the firm to be in alignment with the four other frameworks of the Joint Operating Committee. Maintenance of the producer in compliance to the frameworks of the SEC, tax and royalty regimes is this applications compliance goals. The governance aspect of the application assigns the role and responsibilities of the People to their tasks based on the Military Command & Control Metaphor.

A key to the resolution of the industries ability to find and produce the energy the market demands is through the efficient application of capital. This point has been dealt with in the Financial Marketplace™ module and other modules in this specification. Raising money requires access to public funds. The size of the innovative oil and gas producer should not be an impediment or constraint of access to the markets of oil and gas activity, and, capital access. If a firm is a small partner in a few projects, their ability to raise capital will be dependent upon their level of compliance capability.

Copies of the specification with the other six module drafts can be downloaded from the old wiki .


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Wednesday, May 28, 2008

Robert Metcalfe on MIT Video

As I've mentioned in this blog before, Robert Metcalfe is someone that I find to be great interest to this energy problem. The introduction of Metcalfe in the Video provides a good summary of his background, and I would note that even despite his accomplishments his attitude remains fresh, and challenging to the status quo. The energy industry needs to be shaken and Metcalfe does a bit of shaking in this video.

Another aspect that Metcalfe was involved in was in participating in the MIT's founding of the Massachusetts Enertech Cluster. I held out high hopes that this was the necessary direction of the academic community, only to find soon after its forming it was hi-jacked by the climate and alternative fuels red herrings. I expressed my disappointment of this in this blog post here. Metcalfe is single handedly criticizing the Massachusetts Enertech Cluster in this one hour talk and returning the hope that I expressed of the MEC. Early on in the presentation @ approximately 9 minutes he states a few interesting points:

"Here are these trillion dollar markets (energy) that are poorly served."
"The people who have been doing energy investing for 50 years are annoyed with people like me, Internet people, invading the energy space." Stating, "look you guys have had your chance, and haven't solved it, move aside, here come the Internet people." (Here, here)

"In energy there are some particularly nasty people out there that are not going to welcome your technological developments."
Stating the goal should be that we pursue "clean" and "cheap" energy, Metcalfe summarily attacks the founding premises and objectives of the Massachusetts Enertech Cluster (MEC). Stating that;
  • Climate change is a "motivational bubble" that may be solved quickly.
  • Conservation should not be an objective of this project (MEC), we need abundant energy not conservation. Our economies need to grow, not be stifled by energy conservation.
  • No Nukes (MEC), which meets the clean and cheap energy objective. Technology can and will mitigate the effects of nuclear energy production.
  • Corn ethanol is a fraud.
  • The government needs to adopt a Manhattan styled project for energy. The government will have no solutions outside of taxes.
  • Only scale projects are needed, which of course is very foolhardy. Innovation will come from everywhere.
  • And lastly there are no silver bullets. Metcalfe suggests we spend more time finding the silver bullets instead of opposing their development.
Which leads me to this project. How is it that the energy industry can ignore the People, Ideas & Objects application as a solution?

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Sunday, May 25, 2008

Constrained Organizations

In a follow up post to the "Unconstrained Prices", I thought it might be a good time to reiterate the reasons that I see for the ever escalating oil and gas prices. Energy production is driven by the earth science and engineering disciplines. As one would expect, over a given period of time the science and engineering will be subject to new discoveries and findings, leading to further enhancements of the underlying sciences. Innovation plays a key role here in that the new sciences bring about new innovative uses, and in turn, lead to new science. This is the key area of long term value add in the oil and gas industry. A producer that is able to apply the science and ideas to the problem at hand will, over time, increase their production and reserves. I'd like to call this the "Capabilities Approach" to the oil and gas industry.


If we reduce the competitive nature of the industry down to this Capabilities Approach. We see the interactions and understanding of the industry as it developed over the past 100 years. Someone figures out how to drill deeper, then the subsequent wells expose more oil bearing formations and hence more opportunities for increased oil or gas production. As time has passed the more lucrative and "big" ideas have been applied in broader areas, and for longer periods of time.

As we have learned from Stanford Professor Paul Romer's new growth theory, "more" ideas are needed to progress forward from the current base of understanding. The supply / demand for these ideas is not linear, but logarithmic, and occur at a much faster pace through their life cycle. Enter the classic bureaucracy and realize its efficiencies are based on expansion of the underlying activity (growth) and continuous process improvement. Change, and particularly scientific and engineering change, are the hierarchy's deficiency. What we need is a new form of organizational structure that will support and enable the industry to compete in this dynamically changing and high demand marketplace. Until such time as we can change the performance dynamics of the organizational form for the oil and gas industry, prices of commodities will continue to rise.

It is these comments and ideas that I have asserted in this blog for the past few years. They are a direct result of my thesis that provides evidence that the Joint Operating Committee is the method of organization of the innovative energy producer. We need to start building the software that I have specified in the 11 module People, Ideas & Objects application and unleash the potential of the sciences for the betterment of society. I find these ideas are consistent with many of the industries leadership. The International Energy Agency recently made some comments that reflect these concerns.

The IEA states that by 2015 there will be a shortfall of 12.5 million boe / day.

"Future crude supplies could be far tighter than previously thought."

"Reflects an increasing fear within the IEA and elsewhere that oil producing regions aren't on track to meet future needs."

"The oil investments required may be much much higher than what people assume."

My personal favorite;

"This is a dangerous situation."

"We are optimistic in terms of resource availability, but wary about whether the investments get made in the right places and at a pace that will bring on supply to meet demand."

Yet nothing is done by these bureaucracies. They know what the problem is, there is just no motivation for them to make the necessary changes. Record profits at Exxon Mobil mask the 10% production declines. We need to consider who's responsibility this problem is, as the companies are unwilling to do so. After all it is not they who will be suffering with energy shortages but society in general.

On the other hand, and what I truly do not understand is that the $135 prices are rewarding those that find and produce the energy. This is an entirely new dynamic for the industry, when will we see the companies that are able to outperform the current crop of producers? The answer to that question unfortunately is not soon. Until this software is built to organize the efforts of the industry, our choices are limited to the status quo or manual systems. Join me here.

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Tuesday, April 29, 2008

Draft Specification - Financial Marketplace Module

I am pleased to submit to the community the draft specification of the Financial Marketplace Module. This is the sixth of eleven modules, and last of the three marketplace modules in the specification.

What may not be obvious at first glance of this specification is the Marketplace makeup of the module. Financial resources are critical to the energy industry because of the intense capital nature of the business. This marketplace therefore provides a number of means for the innovative producer to manage the cash resources of the firm and apply the budget discipline at a finer level of focus, the Joint Operating Committee.

One thing that is very obvious about this module is the radical nature of how the nuance of committing capital amoungst the partnership is handled. Offering a multitude of options for the innovative oil and gas producer and eliminating many of the issues associated with raising money.

I have purposely provided a very light sketch of the Financial Marketplace Module. This is not my area of expertise, and many of the users in this community will better understand the open opportunity the module provides. I think the seventh module to be published will be the Compliance & Governance Module.


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Monday, April 21, 2008

Unconstrained prices.

We have seen the price of energy increase by rather large amounts over the past 6 years. One would have to think that the upper limit of what is reasonable has to be near.

Oil and gas is unique in that it is the only resource that has a finite value. There are only so many volumes of oil and gas that ever existed. Like wood, wheat or rice it is not renewable, and like gold, silver and platinum not reusable. Once oil and gas is used its irretrievably lost. These attributes are what make them unique to other commodities.

The other aspect is that they are expensive, but more importantly difficult to find and develop. Conceptually the energy industry is the most difficult from a science and engineering point of view. As we have progressed through the cheap energy era, we now find ourselves in the era of difficult energy.

The pace at which the consuming public has learned the dynamics involved in the industry and its pricing has increased. The point that I want to make in this entry is that oil and gas prices are no longer constrained by the idea that there are easier to produce alternatives. The market has always generally believed that corn, wind and solar would replace the "dirty" oil used to power the SUV. That the future of the world's energy sources would now suddenly be clean, cheap and environmentally friendly.

The lesson that has been difficult to learn is that we can't use our food for fuel. Rice, wheat and corn are being disrupted and it is the food supplies of developing nations that suffer. Secondly the volumes of energy consumed in the alternative energy manufacturing process are higher then what is produced. And finally solar and wind, as they stand today, are prepared to take on less then 1% of the total supply of energy

So where may we see the price of energy go? If my suspicions are correct, we may ultimately see the price of oil reach $650.00. Within the next three months we may see $175.00 / bbl and we should consider that cheap. Cheap because it will only lead to temporary shortages.

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Sunday, April 13, 2008

Draft Specification - Resource Marketplace Module

For every serious challenge facing the world. There is someone with a big idea. That big idea needs to be nurtured. It needs to be explored and analyzed in order to bring it to life.

And design is at the core of that innovation. There isn’t a problem in the world that a great designer can’t solve.” Quotation from an Autodesk commercial.

The Resource Marketplace module is the second of three marketplace modules in the People, Ideas & Objects specification and the fifth of eleven. The key focus of this module is on providing a forum for electronic commerce. The Resource Marketplace works with the Accounting Voucher Module to optimize the contract, division of labor and mitigation of transaction costs.

A summary list of the published modules.

Draft Specification - Security & Access Control Module

Draft Specification - Petroleum Lease Marketplace Module

Draft Specification - Partnership Accounting Module

Draft Specification - Accounting Voucher Module

Draft Specification - Resource Marketplace Module.

Possibly the largest impact of this module is the management, with the Research & Capabilities Module, of People's Intellectual Property (IP). If we are to succeed in finding larger volumes of energy to meet the worlds demands we are going to need to solve a variety of difficult problems. Whether those problems are in engineering, science or business the individuals that will ultimately prevail need to be motivated to do this difficult work. The motivation is the ability to earn the rights to the expression of the idea, the patent or trademark.

For more then 25 years the oil and gas industry has ceased to conduct any research. Making today's environment ripe for research and development opportunities and making it a use it or loose it proposition. Since they chose to do nothing they won't miss out on any opportunities. In this module specification I also suggest that companies have become too comfortable with using People's IP as if it was free like the oxygen that we breathe. The "Ideas" in People, Ideas & Objects is explained in fair detail in the specification. It is necessary to build a system where people can develop, secure, license, contract and manage their intellectual property. This application is the place where that will happen, have a look.

The next Module to be published will be the Financial Resource Marketplace.

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    Tuesday, April 08, 2008

    Google announces App Engine

    We moved one step closer to the People, Ideas & Objects applications capabilities with the announcement of Google App Engine from Google. Information regarding what the App Engine is, is available here, here and here.

    What this provides People, Ideas & Objects users is the ability to host applications on Google Application Hosting. As one can imagine, Google has a lot of hardware available that at times may be surplus to their needs. This service is being offered as part of the Google Apps for http://www.people-ideas-objects.com/ product. And therefore free to all the users and developers of the community.

    Now they mention that the service will allow only the Python programming environment, but more will be added in the future. I have always considered using Sun Microsystems to run our main app, and that hasn't necessarily changed, but Google Apps Engine provides the users and others to build some of the applications that may be used by a user to provide a greater level of service to their oil and gas clients.


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      Friday, April 04, 2008

      Draft Specification - Accounting Voucher Module

      I am pleased to present the fourth module of the People, Ideas & Objects module to the community. The Draft Accounting Voucher module specification is different then most other modules and applications. It brings an area of strong academic science that until now has been poorly published in other ERP applications. Have a look.

      The next two modules will be;

      • The Resource Marketplace Module

      • The Financial Marketplace Module

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